LCS

Licogi 166 ·UPCOM ·2021Q3

▼▼ Declining sharply

Leverage and liquidity require close discipline Debt/equity −0.02x
Price
Latest close
P/E
P/B
EPS -63
BVPS 9,536
ROE -0.7%
ROA -0.1%
Profit Margin -1.1%
Asset Turnover 0.12x
Equity Mult. 4.94x

TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity

What Is Changing

On a Năm 2021 basis, LCS posted a very sharp profit drop versus the same period, showing that pressure has clearly fed through to the bottom line. More notably, a significant portion of profit is supported by non-core sources, further affecting earnings quality.

TTM REVENUE
VND 21bn
−72.0%YoY
NET MARGIN
−58.32%
−58.4ppYoY
TTM NET PROFIT
−VND 12bn
−17735.6%YoY
Non-core income / PBT
63.1%
Metric Q3'21 Q2'21 Q1'21 Q4'20 Q3'20 Q2'20 Q1'20
Revenue 6.4 1.4 13.3 22.1 27.8 11.0 14.5
Growth +342% -89% -40% -21% +154% -24%
Net Income -5.3 -7.0 0.1 11.8 -5.1 -6.7 0.1
Net Margin -83.22% -488.21% 0.42% 53.60% -18.33% -61.21% 0.41%

Drivers of LCS's profit

TTM

Net profit attributable to parent declined vs prior quarter, mainly due to lower gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Gross profit ↓ 1.9bn
Finance costs ↑ 1.3bn
Administrative expenses ↑ 1.0bn
Other profit ↓ 0.6bn

Financial Highlights

Detailed analysis of each financial dimension

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins are broadly flat — earnings quality is the factor to watch.

very positive positive stable watch under pressure

What is driving the margin?

Track net margin changes and the operating components against the same period last year.

Profitability trend

Net Margin -1.11% −58.4pp
Gross Margin 27.46%
SG&A / Revenue -8.02%
Non-core / Revenue 19.15%

TTM YoY · 2020Q3 -> 2021Q3

Watchpoints

Financial result is supporting margin

Margin support from financial result remains high (63.1% of PBT) — sustainability should be monitored.

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency for construction contractors should be read alongside project progress and receivables collection from developers — ROIC of -0.1% fluctuates with handover cycles.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

ROIC currently stands at -0.11%. Track NOPAT margin and capital turnover to assess capital efficiency.

For construction contractors, ROIC moves with backlog and project acceptance timing — this is a reference signal and should be read alongside working-capital cycles.

CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND

TTM YoY · 2020Q3 -> 2021Q3

ROIC -0.11%
NOPAT Margin -0.41%
Capital Turnover 0.27x
Average Invested Capital 161.7bn

Balance Sheet

ROIC for construction contractors swings with project progress and handover cycles — the balance sheet below adds perspective. Leverage runs above the construction contractors average — project acceptance cycles warrant monitoring — liabilities at 3.97x equity, net debt at 1.24x equity.

Inventory ended the period at 205.1bn, roughly 48.8% of total assets.

Over the last 12 months, working capital released 0.0bn of cash.

Working Capital Drivers

TTM YoY · 2020Q3 -> 2021Q3

Receivables were broadly stable → neutral CFO: 0.0bn
Inventories were broadly stable → neutral CFO: 0.0bn
Payables were broadly stable → neutral CFO: 0.0bn

Working Capital Efficiency

Track receivable, inventory, and payable turns to judge working-capital efficiency.

Track DSO, DIO, DPO components to evaluate working capital turnover efficiency.

For construction contractors, DSO/DIO/DPO/CCC can be distorted by project progress, work-in-progress receivables, and milestone acceptance timing — these metrics should be read alongside developer payment cycles.

Working Capital Efficiency

TTM YoY · 2020Q3 -> 2021Q3

Receivables
Inventory
Payables
Cash Conversion Cycle

Is financial risk significant?

Leverage is safe but FCF is negative at 1.7bn due to capex of 0.0bn — an investment choice, not an urgent risk.

Leverage & Liquidity

Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 1.24x and interest coverage only at -0.02x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, cash equals 0.0% of debt, and total debt stands at 90.0bn.

Leverage for construction contractors fluctuates with project working capital, performance guarantees, and progress receivables — should be read alongside receivables quality and developer payment cycles.

Watchpoints

Net leverage is elevated

Net debt / equity stands at 1.24x, increasing balance-sheet pressure.

Interest coverage is thin

Interest coverage is -0.02x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.

Leverage and liquidity trend

Net Debt / Equity 1.24x +0.03x
Interest Coverage -0.02x
Cash / Debt 0.0% −7.4pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt 100.0% +0.9pp
CFO / NI 3.46x

TTM YoY · 2020Q3 -> 2021Q3

Cash Flow

With safe leverage noted above, cash flow below shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 3.4bn in 2021, against investing cash flow of 0.0bn.

Post-investment cash flow was positive +3.4bn. Financing cash flow was negative +3.4bn.

CFO / net income was 3.46x.

After spending 0.0bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −1.7bn.

For construction contractors, FCF swings sharply with project progress and payment cycles — should be read alongside backlog and receivables quality.

Cash Conversion

TTM Cash Conversion · 2020Q3 -> 2021Q3

CFO TTM 1.7bn
Cash Capex 0.0bn
FCF TTM −1.7bn

Investment Takeaway

The business is showing a few weaker signals, but the current magnitude is not yet clear enough to conclude that this is a broader weakening phase. The next item to monitor is the earnings mix, when non-core contribution is -1789.5%. The main risk still sits in leverage and liquidity, with interest coverage at -0.02x.

Watchpoint: cash flow is currently keeping pace with accounting earnings, with CFO / net income at 3.46x. Even so, net financial result still accounts for -1789.5% of PBT, so the earnings mix still needs monitoring.

Key risk: leverage and liquidity still require discipline, with interest coverage only at -0.02x.

Statement Data

Item 2021 2020
Net Revenue
21.1 75.3
Cost of Goods Sold
0.0 0.0
Gross Profit
-2.0 14.0
Financial Expenses
-7.4 -8.6
Selling Expenses
0.0 0.0
General and Administrative Expenses
-2.6 -6.0
Operating Profit
-12.0 -0.5
Profit Before Tax
-12.3 0.1
Net Income
-12.3 0.1
Profit Attributable to Parent
-12.3 0.1
Earnings per Share
0.00 9.18

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