NGC

Chế biến Thủy sản xuất khẩu Ngô Quyền ·UPCOM ·2022Q4

▼▼ Declining sharply

Margins remain under pressure Net margin −5.83%, −10.48pp YoY
Price
Latest close
P/E
P/B
EPS -2,131
BVPS -2,245
ROE 197.1%
ROA -3.5%
Profit Margin -5.8%
Asset Turnover 0.60x
Equity Mult. -56.73x

TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2022Q4 basis, NGC posted a very sharp profit drop versus the same period, showing that pressure has clearly fed through to the bottom line. More notably, profit relies heavily on non-core sources while operating cash flow is negative — these two factors together suggest earnings quality needs cautious evaluation.

TTM REVENUE
VND 84bn
−52.1%YoY
NET MARGIN
−5.83%
−10.5ppYoY
TTM NET PROFIT
−VND 5bn
−159.9%YoY
Net financial result / PBT
78.1%
affects earnings quality
Metric Q4'22 Q3'22 Q2'22 Q1'22 Q4'21 Q3'21 Q2'21 Q1'21 Q4'20 Q3'20 Q2'20 Q1'20
Revenue 13.5 3.0 54.0 13.6 99.3 26.6 44.7 5.1 4.7 4.5 2.7 6.1
Growth +352% -94% +297% -86% +274% -41% +773% +8% +4% +71% -56%
Net Income -2.3 -1.2 -0.2 -1.1 3.1 4.0 0.9 0.2 -1.0 0.7 -7.2 -9.0
Net Margin -17.36% -40.48% -0.44% -8.19% 3.08% 15.20% 1.98% 4.06% -20.23% 15.18% -271.24% -149.07%

Drivers of NGC's profit

TTM

Net profit attributable to parent declined vs last year, mainly due to lower gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Gross profit ↓ 13.6bn
Finance costs ↑ 9.1bn
Administrative expenses ↑ 1.5bn
TTM

Net profit attributable to parent declined vs prior quarter, mainly due to lower gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Gross profit ↓ 7.4bn
Finance costs ↑ 6.8bn
Administrative expenses ↑ 1.1bn

Financial Highlights

Detailed analysis of each financial dimension

ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

2021Q4 -220.2% = 4.7% × 1.78 × -26.52
2022Q4 197.1% = -5.8% × 0.60 × -56.73

ROE edged up from -220.2% to 197.1%, but the main driver was not core operations.

Net margin: -5.8% -10.5pp Asset turnover: 0.60x -1.19x Leverage: -56.73x -30.21x

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins are under pressure while earnings still rely significantly on non-core sources.

very positive positive stable watch under pressure

What is driving the margin?

Net margin fell to -5.83%, losing 10.5pp. The main pressure comes from Gross margin fell 7.7pp and SG&A / Revenue rose 1.9pp (with lingering pressure from Net financial result / Revenue fell 7.6pp).

The pressure comes from non-core items while core operations hold their rhythm — margin has a basis to recover once this factor passes.

Profitability trend

Net Margin -5.83% −10.5pp
Gross Margin 0.15% −7.7pp
SG&A / Revenue 1.54% +1.9pp
Non-core / Revenue -4.43% −7.6pp

TTM YoY · 2021Q4 -> 2022Q4

Watchpoints

Financial result share remains high

Even though contribution decreased by 7.6pp, financial result still accounts for 80.1% of PBT — earnings durability should be monitored in coming periods.

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency is declining — check whether the drag is from margins or turnover.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

ROIC fell to -10.77%, losing 28.9pp. That translates to -10.77 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. Both NOPAT margin narrowed 10.5pp and capital turnover fell 2.20x, with invested capital holding roughly steady — pressure came from both operational efficiency and asset efficiency.

Both margin and turnover weakened — this is a broad-based decline, and cyclical versus structural components need to be separated.

Watchpoints

ROIC remains low

ROIC is currently -10.77% — below the typical cost-of-capital threshold; worth tracking whether upcoming periods can rise above this level.

CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND

TTM YoY · 2021Q4 -> 2022Q4

ROIC -10.77% −28.9pp
NOPAT Margin -5.94% −10.5pp
Capital Turnover 1.81x −2.20x
Average Invested Capital 46.4bn +2.6bn

Balance Sheet

ROIC declined — the balance sheet shows how capital is being deployed. Balance sheet is exceptionally sound — liabilities at -21.10x equity, with a net cash position equivalent to 8.67x equity.

Over the last 12 months, working capital released 26.9bn of cash, mainly thanks to lower receivables and lower inventories. Pressure from lower payables only partly offset that benefit.

Working Capital Drivers

TTM YoY · 2021Q4 -> 2022Q4

Receivables decreased → higher CFO: +31.0bn
Inventories decreased → higher CFO: +0.7bn
Payables decreased → lower CFO: −4.8bn

Working Capital Efficiency

Track receivable, inventory, and payable turns to judge working-capital efficiency.

Track DSO, DIO, DPO components to evaluate working capital turnover efficiency.

Watchpoints

Receivables collection is slowing

DSO increased by +182.1 days, pointing to slower receivables turnover.

Working Capital Efficiency

TTM YoY · 2021Q4 -> 2022Q4

Receivables 182.1 days +182.1 days
Inventory 2.3 days
Payables 274.4 days
Cash Conversion Cycle -90.0 days

Is financial risk significant?

Financial risk is low — the company has net cash and CFO reached 12.6bn.

Leverage & Liquidity

Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at -8.67x and interest coverage only at -1.31x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, cash equals 0.1% of debt, and total debt stands at 44.8bn.

Watchpoints

Interest coverage is thin

Interest coverage is -1.31x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.

Short-term refinancing pressure is meaningful

Short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, raising near-term refinancing needs.

Leverage and liquidity trend

Net Debt / Equity -8.67x −285.40x
Interest Coverage -1.31x −2.81x
Cash / Debt 0.1% −0.0pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt 100.0% 0.0pp
CFO / NI -2.58x −1.30x

TTM YoY · 2021Q4 -> 2022Q4

Cash Flow

With safe leverage noted above, cash flow below shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 12.6bn in 2022, against investing cash flow of 0.0bn.

Post-investment cash flow was positive +12.6bn. Financing cash flow was negative +12.7bn.

CFO / net income was -2.58x.

After spending 0.0bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of +12.6bn.

Cash Conversion

TTM Cash Conversion · 2021Q4 -> 2022Q4

CFO TTM 12.6bn +23.1bn
Cash Capex 0.0bn −0.6bn
FCF TTM +12.6bn +23.6bn

Investment Takeaway

The business is showing a few weaker signals, but the current magnitude is not yet clear enough to conclude that this is a broader weakening phase. The brighter spot is cash generation. Even so, earnings quality still needs closer monitoring because net financial result remains elevated. The main risk still sits in core profitability, with net margin down 10.5 pp.

Improvement: cash generation is recovering, with trailing-12M FCF improving by 23.6bn versus the same period last year.

Watchpoint: the earnings mix still needs monitoring, with net financial result still accounting for 78.1% of PBT and CFO / net income currently at -2.58x.

Key risk: profitability remains under pressure, with trailing-12M net margin at -5.83% after a 10.5pp decline versus the same period last year.

Statement Data

Item 2022 2021 2020
Net Revenue
84.1 175.7 18.0
Cost of Goods Sold
85.0 0.0 0.0
Gross Profit
-0.9 13.8 -15.4
Financial Expenses
4.0 -5.3 -0.3
Selling Expenses
0.3 -0.1 -0.4
General and Administrative Expenses
1.0 -0.5 -0.8
Operating Profit
-6.2 7.9 -16.8
Profit Before Tax
-6.1 8.2 -16.5
Net Income
-6.4 8.2 -16.5
Profit Attributable to Parent
-6.4 8.2 -16.5
Earnings per Share
-2,788.00 3,559.17 -7,178.74

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