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iShareInvest Research

HOSE · Quý 2/2026

VPH

Vạn Phát Hưng

Analysis of business results & financial statements · Quý 2/2026

▼▼ Declining sharply

Trailing net profit reached 31.9bn, fell 195.0bn compared with the same period last year. Key positives came from lower finance costs. Offsetting pressure came mainly from lower financial income. Detailed impact is shown below:

See what is changing ↓
P/E
-7.86x
P/B
0.25x
EPS
-336
BVPS
10,546
ROE
-3.1%
ROA
-1.6%
Market price
2,640
16 Oct 2026

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2026Q2 basis, VPH is holding revenue at an acceptable level, but margins are eroding visibly — margins have been compressing consistently over multiple periods. More notably, a significant portion of profit is supported by non-core sources, further affecting earnings quality.

Sector note: developer revenue is recognised at handover — large quarter-to-quarter swings are normal; read on a trailing-12-month basis and against the delivery schedule.

Profit bridge

Vs last year · TTM

  1. Finance costs
  2. Other
  3. Financial income
Unit: VND bn. Green bars support profit; red bars reduce profit.

A single data point, or a trajectory?

Latest eight quarters · Quý 2/2026

MetricQ2'26Q1'26Q4'25Q3'25Q2'25Q1'25Q4'24Q3'24
Revenue15.535.453.238.633.79.212.318.4
LNST-12.0-9.4-0.3-10.2-0.1-9.2-10.9183.3
Net margin-77.20%-26.65%-0.65%-26.36%-0.36%-100.44%-88.90%998.02%

Revenue

16bn

Net income

-12bn

Net margin

-77.20%

A closer look at what is happening inside the business

A company's statements are read with the questions that fit its type of business.

01

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins are under pressure while earnings still rely significantly on non-core sources.

Revenue Growth

▲

Is growth real and durable?

Trailing-12-month revenue grew 94.0% year on year — but the quarterly pace is slowing (+110% → −54%).

3 of the last 4 quarters grew year on year.

Revenue TTM
143bn
+94.0%
Latest quarter YoY
−54%
slowing

What is driving the margin?

▼▼

Net margin fell to −22.38%, losing 244.2pp. The main pressure is Gross margin fell 11.5pp, outweighing the improvement in SG&A / Revenue fell 89.4pp (with lingering pressure from Net financial result / Revenue fell 363.1pp and Other profit / Revenue fell 0.3pp).

The pressure comes from non-core items while core operations hold their rhythm — margin has a basis to recover once this factor passes.

Developer revenue is recognised at handover — large swings between quarters are a property-sector feature, not a business trend. Read on a TTM basis and against the delivery schedule.

2025Q1: 9.2bn

2025Q2: 33.7bn

2025Q3: 38.6bn

2025Q4: 53.2bn

2026Q1: 35.4bn

2026Q2: 15.5bn

Net Margin
−22.38%
−244.2pp
Gross Margin
8.12%
−11.5pp
SG&A / Revenue
24.84%
−89.4pp
Non-core / Revenue
−4.95%
−363.4pp

TTM YoY · 2025Q2 -> 2026Q2

Financial result share remains high

Even though contribution decreased by 363.4pp, financial result still accounts for 48.4% of PBT — earnings durability should be monitored in coming periods.

Cash Flow

▲

Is profit converting into cash?

Operating cash flow reached -430.5bn against investing cash flow of 188.8bn (annual cash-flow figures for 2025).

Post-investment cash flow was negative +241.7bn. Financing cash flow was positive +91.9bn.

CFO / net income was 5,33 lần.

After spending +3.2bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −173.3bn.

For residential developers, FCF and CFO swing with project cycles — negative during investment phases and positive at handover — not representative of single-year efficiency.

Earnings Quality

▼

How much income is non-core?

Non-core income reaches 48.4% of pre-tax profit — core earnings are thinner than the headline.

Within that, net financial result at +35.4%, other profit at +13.0% of PBT.

Non-core / PBT
48.4%
high
Net financial / PBT
35.4%
Other profit / PBT
13.0%
02

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency for residential developers should be read alongside project cycles and handover timing — ROIC of −2.2% fluctuates with handover cycles.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

▼

ROIC fell to −2.23%, losing 13.6pp. That translates to −2.23 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. The main pressure came from NOPAT margin narrowed 282.4pp, outweighing the movement in capital turnover; with invested capital easing slightly by 94bn.

For real estate developers, ROIC moves with project cycles — this is a reference signal, and the real assessment needs upcoming handover periods.

DuPont

What drives ROE?

Net margin -22.4% -244.2pp
Asset turnover 0.07x +0.04x
Financial leverage 1.88x -0.20x
ROE -3.1% -12.7pp

ROE fell from 15.8% to −3.1% — dragged by net margin and leverage.

03

Is financial risk significant?

Leverage is safe but FCF is negative at 173.3bn due to capex of 3.2bn — an investment choice, not an urgent risk.

Leverage & Liquidity

▼

Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 0.63x and interest coverage only at −0.94x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, cash equals 5.3% of debt, and total debt stands at 663.6bn.

Leverage for residential developers should be read alongside project cycles, development inventory, and handover timing.

Net Debt / Equity
0.63x
+0.24x
Interest Coverage
−0.94x
−2.58x
Cash / Debt
5.3%
−4.4pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt
100.0%
0.0pp

TTM YoY · 2025Q2 -> 2026Q2

Interest coverage is thin

Interest coverage is −0.94x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.

Short-term refinancing pressure is meaningful

Short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, raising near-term refinancing needs.

Balance Sheet

●

ROIC for residential developers swings with project cycles and handover timing. Capital structure is notably light for the real estate sector — liabilities at 0.91x equity, net debt at 0.63x equity.

Customer advances 139.2bn (as of 2026Q2) — deposits on units/projects not yet handed over: revenue already sold but not yet recognised, a lead indicator of profit in upcoming delivery quarters.

Customer advances: 139.2bn · YoY −6.4bn · QoQ +1.9bn

Locked-in revenue: ~3.90x quarters of revenue (TTM)

Inventory pre-sold: 605.44%

Project inventory splits in two at 2026Q2: 23.0bn near-delivery stock (short-term) and 0.3bn construction-in-progress (long-term). Weighted toward near-delivery — the revenue-recognition cycle is approaching.

Near-delivery (ST): 23.0bn (98.73%)

Construction-in-progress (LT): 0.3bn (1.27%)

For a developer the question is not debt-to-equity but whether borrowings are backed by the project pipeline. At 2026Q2, net debt 628.8bn vs project value 23.3bn — ratio 2700.47% — net debt is 27.00x the project pipeline, far beyond the asset layer that should back it. Leverage sits in high-risk territory; repayment depends on sources outside the current pipeline.

Net debt / project value: 2700.47%

None

Over the last 12 months, working capital absorbed 112.3bn of cash, mainly because of higher receivables and higher inventories.

Research synthesis

What this reporting period is showing

The business is showing a few weaker signals, but the current magnitude is not yet clear enough to conclude that this is a broader weakening phase. Even so, earnings quality still needs closer monitoring because net financial result remains elevated. The main risk still sits in core profitability, with net margin down 244.2 pp.

  • Watchpoint: cash flow is currently keeping pace with accounting earnings, with CFO / net income at 5.33x. Even so, net financial result still accounts for 35.4% of PBT, so the earnings mix still needs monitoring.
  • Key risk: profitability remains under pressure, with trailing-12M net margin at -22.38% after a 244.2pp decline versus the same period last year.

Questions for the next period

  1. Whether revenue sustains its +94,0% YoY pace or begins to slow.

  2. Whether margins hold around the current -22.38% level or narrow again.

  3. Whether operating cash flow holds its -430.5bn (cumulative for 2025) level in upcoming periods or weakens.

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