Trailing net profit reached 3.1bn, rose 21.3bn compared with the same period last year. Key positives came from higher gross profit. Offsetting pressure came mainly from higher administrative expenses. Detailed impact is shown below:

Is growth real and durable?

Trailing-12-month revenue declined 100.0% year on year, with the quarterly pace steady around −100%.

0 of the last 3 quarters grew year on year.

Track net margin changes and the operating components against the same period last year.

None

Developer revenue is recognised at handover — large swings between quarters are a property-sector feature, not a business trend. Read on a TTM basis and against the delivery schedule.

2021Q4: 0.0bn

2022Q1: 0.0bn

2022Q2: 0.0bn

2022Q3: 0.0bn

2022Q4: 0.0bn

2023Q1: 0.0bn

Is profit converting into cash?

With leverage safe, cash flow shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 5.9bn against investing cash flow of 0.0bn (annual cash-flow figures for 2022).

Post-investment cash flow was positive +5.9bn. Financing cash flow was negative +5.9bn.

CFO / net income was −1,31 lần.

After spending 0.0bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of +4.0bn.

For residential developers, FCF and CFO swing with project cycles — negative during investment phases and positive at handover — not representative of single-year efficiency.

How much income is non-core?

Non-core income makes up 22.1% of pre-tax profit — worth monitoring.

Within that, net financial result at −0.0%, other profit at +22.1% of PBT.

ROIC fell to 2.11%, losing 44.6pp. That translates to 2.11 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. ROIC is under pressure as NOPAT margin was not available and capital turnover was not available have not provided enough support.

For real estate developers, ROIC moves with project cycles — this is a reference signal, and the real assessment needs upcoming handover periods.

Track net leverage, interest coverage, and the liquidity buffer on the balance sheet.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, cash equals 1.0% of debt, and total debt stands at 27.6bn.

Leverage for residential developers should be read alongside project cycles, development inventory, and handover timing.

ROIC for residential developers swings with project cycles and handover timing. Capital structure is notably light for the real estate sector — liabilities at -1.99x equity, with a net cash position equivalent to 0.19x equity.

Customer advances 53.6bn (as of 2023Q1) — deposits on units/projects not yet handed over: revenue already sold but not yet recognised, a lead indicator of profit in upcoming delivery quarters.

Customer advances: 53.6bn · YoY +1.9bn · QoQ +0.1bn

Inventory pre-sold: 350.83%

Project inventory splits in two at 2023Q1: 15.3bn near-delivery stock (short-term) and 0.0bn construction-in-progress (long-term). Weighted toward near-delivery — the revenue-recognition cycle is approaching.

Near-delivery (ST): 15.3bn (100.00%)

Construction-in-progress (LT): 0.0bn (0.00%)

For a developer the question is not debt-to-equity but whether borrowings are backed by the project pipeline. At 2023Q1, net debt 27.3bn vs project value 15.3bn — ratio 178.84% — net debt is 1.79x the project pipeline, far beyond the asset layer that should back it. Leverage sits in high-risk territory; repayment depends on sources outside the current pipeline.

Net debt / project value: 178.84%

Development inventory ended the period at 15.3bn, about 10.8% of total assets — reflecting projects in progress awaiting handover.

Over the last 12 months, working capital released 6.7bn of cash, mainly thanks to lower receivables and higher payables. Pressure from higher inventories only partly offset that benefit.