TDM
Nước Thủ Dầu Một ·HOSE ·2026Q1
▼▼ Declining sharply
TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity
What Is Changing
On a TTM 2026Q1 basis, TDM is retaining some revenue, but margins are collapsing sharply. More notably, a significant portion of profit is supported by non-core sources, further affecting earnings quality.
| Metric | Q1'26 | Q4'25 | Q3'25 | Q2'25 | Q1'25 | Q4'24 | Q3'24 | Q2'24 | Q1'24 | Q4'23 | Q3'23 | Q2'23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 78.3 | 242.2 | 64.0 | 99.9 | 100.0 | 144.6 | 106.4 | 187.2 | 106.2 | 191.7 | 106.8 | 133.0 |
| Growth | -68% | +279% | -36% | -0% | -31% | +36% | -43% | +76% | -45% | +79% | -20% | — |
| Net Income | 122.3 | 10.4 | 3.1 | 52.6 | 143.8 | 57.6 | 57.4 | 44.4 | 37.5 | 43.5 | 56.6 | 55.2 |
| Net Margin | 156.11% | 4.28% | 4.91% | 52.66% | 143.74% | 39.82% | 53.92% | 23.71% | 35.33% | 22.68% | 52.99% | 41.53% |
Drivers of TDM's profit
Net profit attributable to parent declined vs last year, mainly due to lower gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Net profit attributable to parent declined vs prior quarter, mainly due to lower gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Financial Highlights
Detailed analysis of each financial dimension
ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier
ROE fell from 12.5% to 7.3% — all three components weakened, with net margin being the main drag.
Is the profit sustainable?
Margins are under pressure while earnings still rely significantly on non-core sources.
What is driving the margin?
Net margin fell to 38.89%, losing 17.4pp. The main pressure comes from Gross margin fell 21.7pp and SG&A / Revenue rose 0.7pp (with additional support from Net financial result / Revenue rose 2.5pp and Other profit / Revenue rose 0.0pp).
The pressure comes from core operations — this is a concerning type of decline, not a one-off movement.
Profitability trend
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Watchpoints
Financial result accounts for 42.6% of PBT and lifted net margin by 2.5pp — separate the operating contribution from this source.
Is capital being used efficiently?
Capital efficiency for utilities should be read alongside regulated tariffs and long-cycle depreciation — ROIC of 6.2% reflects a large fixed-asset base.
Is capital being deployed efficiently?
ROIC fell to 6.17%, losing 5.8pp. That translates to 6.17 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. Both NOPAT margin narrowed 17.4pp and capital turnover fell 0.05x, while invested capital expanded strongly by 530bn — pressure came from both operational efficiency and asset efficiency.
For utilities, ROIC reflects returns on a large fixed-asset base — this is a reference signal and should be read alongside regulated tariffs.
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Balance Sheet
ROIC for utilities reflects a large fixed-asset base and regulated tariffs — the balance sheet below adds perspective. Capital structure is conservative with low leverage — liabilities at 0.31x equity, net debt at 0.23x equity.
Over the last 12 months, working capital released 23.7bn of cash, mainly thanks to lower inventories. Pressure from higher receivables and lower payables only partly offset that benefit.
Working Capital Drivers
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Working Capital Efficiency
Working capital is being managed more efficiently, supporting overall capital efficiency. Cash conversion cycle improved by 42.9 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO fell 67.4 days, DSO rose 17.7 days, and DPO fell 6.9 days.
Improvement comes mainly from faster inventory turnover — watch whether this trend persists in coming periods.
For utilities, working capital cycle reflects regulated pricing mechanics and long-term settlement contracts — DSO/DIO/DPO should be treated as contextual signals rather than pure efficiency indicators.
Watchpoints
CCC stands at 117.7 days, suggesting that working capital remains tied up for a relatively long operating cycle.
DSO increased by +17.7 days, pointing to slower receivables turnover.
Working Capital Efficiency
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Is financial risk significant?
Leverage is safe but FCF is negative at 0.3bn due to capex of 182.6bn — an investment choice, not an urgent risk.
Leverage & Liquidity
Leverage is balanced for now, with net debt / equity at 0.23x and interest coverage at 2.79x.
At present, short-term debt accounts for 23.1% of total debt, cash equals 8.7% of debt, and total debt stands at 678.9bn.
Leverage for utilities reflects long-term capital needs for fixed assets and recovery through regulated pricing — elevated leverage is structural to the industry.
Watchpoints
Cash / debt stands at 8.7%, leaving limited liquidity buffer to monitor.
Leverage and liquidity trend
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Cash Flow
With safe leverage noted above, cash flow below shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 139.8bn in 2025, against investing cash flow of -431.7bn.
Post-investment cash flow was negative +292.0bn. Financing cash flow was positive +164.6bn.
CFO / net income was 0.97x.
After spending +182.6bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −0.3bn.
For utilities, high capex and long investment cycles are structural — short-term FCF volatility does not reflect long-term cash generation through regulated pricing.
Cash Conversion
TTM Cash Conversion · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Investment Takeaway
The business is under real pressure, but the current picture has not turned broadly adverse. A notable area has clearly weakened, making the near-term outlook hard to call bright; even so, other parts of the business are still holding up, with margins remain under pressure remaining the main constraint, with net margin down 17.4 pp. The next watchpoint is the earnings mix, when non-core contribution is 42.5%.
Watchpoint: the earnings mix still needs monitoring, with net financial result still accounting for 42.5% of PBT and CFO / net income currently at 0.97x.
Key risk: profitability remains under pressure, with trailing-12M net margin at 38.89% after a 17.4pp decline versus the same period last year.
Statement Data
| Item | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net Revenue
|
506.1 | 544.4 | 532.6 | 478.9 | 417.0 |
|
Cost of Goods Sold
|
361.6 | 286.8 | 291.8 | 230.0 | 0.0 |
|
Gross Profit
|
144.5 | 257.6 | 240.8 | 248.9 | 207.4 |
|
Financial Expenses
|
59.5 | 45.1 | 48.5 | 32.6 | -40.1 |
|
Selling Expenses
|
— | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 |
|
General and Administrative Expenses
|
15.7 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 10.3 | -19.9 |
|
Operating Profit
|
218.7 | 225.2 | 302.0 | 230.1 | 336.0 |
|
Profit Before Tax
|
218.5 | 225.3 | 302.2 | 231.0 | 336.4 |
|
Net Income
|
209.9 | 204.4 | 283.4 | 220.4 | 329.5 |
|
Profit Attributable to Parent
|
209.9 | 204.4 | 283.4 | 220.4 | 329.5 |
|
Earnings per Share
|
1,748.00 | 1,741.00 | 2,608.00 | 2,028.00 | 3,161.00 |
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