NDW
Cấp nước Nam Định ·UPCOM ·2026Q1
▼ Under pressure
TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity
What Is Changing
On a TTM 2026Q1 basis, NDW is declining across multiple metrics versus the same period, suggesting current pressure is not coming from just one side — profit momentum has been slowing across consecutive periods. What remains unclear is whether the business can stabilize before this trend deepens.
| Metric | Q1'26 | Q4'25 | Q3'25 | Q2'25 | Q1'25 | Q4'24 | Q3'24 | Q2'24 | Q1'24 | Q4'23 | Q3'23 | Q2'23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 67.9 | 67.1 | 75.7 | 70.1 | 64.3 | 68.1 | 72.9 | 69.0 | 67.6 | 68.0 | 71.0 | 66.2 |
| Growth | +1% | -11% | +8% | +9% | -6% | -7% | +6% | +2% | -1% | -4% | +7% | — |
| Net Income | 9.7 | -0.9 | 11.4 | 10.8 | 9.6 | -0.3 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 10.5 | -5.6 | 16.0 | 12.2 |
| Net Margin | 14.21% | -1.33% | 15.07% | 15.41% | 15.02% | -0.49% | 15.97% | 16.76% | 15.46% | -8.26% | 22.56% | 18.37% |
Drivers of NDW's profit
Net profit attributable to parent declined vs last year, mainly due to higher administrative expenses. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Net profit attributable to parent increased vs prior quarter, mainly helped by higher gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Financial Highlights
Detailed analysis of each financial dimension
ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier
ROE fell from 8.6% to 7.8% — asset turnover weakened the most, though leverage still provided support.
Is the profit sustainable?
Margins narrowed but earnings quality remains clean — pressure is mainly operational.
What is driving the margin?
Net margin narrowed to 11.03%, falling 0.8pp. The main pressure is SG&A / Revenue rose 2.7pp, outweighing the improvement in Gross margin rose 1.4pp (in addition, Other profit / Revenue rose 0.6pp added support while Net financial result / Revenue fell 0.3pp remained a drag).
The pressure comes from core operations — this is a concerning type of decline, not a one-off movement.
Profitability trend
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Is capital being used efficiently?
Capital efficiency for utilities should be read alongside regulated tariffs and long-cycle depreciation — ROIC of 7.9% reflects a large fixed-asset base.
Is capital being deployed efficiently?
ROIC fell to 7.88%, losing 2.3pp. That translates to 7.88 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. Both NOPAT margin narrowed 1.4pp and capital turnover fell 0.11x, while invested capital rose by 56bn — pressure came from both operational efficiency and asset efficiency.
For utilities, ROIC reflects returns on a large fixed-asset base — this is a reference signal and should be read alongside regulated tariffs.
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Balance Sheet
ROIC for utilities reflects a large fixed-asset base and regulated tariffs — the balance sheet below adds perspective. Capital structure is conservative with low leverage — liabilities at 0.38x equity, net debt at 0.04x equity.
Over the last 12 months, working capital released 0.0bn of cash.
Working Capital Drivers
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Working Capital Efficiency
Working capital is being managed more efficiently, supporting overall capital efficiency. Cash conversion cycle improved by 11.8 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO fell 5.4 days, DSO rose 14.0 days, and DPO rose 20.5 days.
Extended payment timing is the main driver — consider whether this trades off supplier relationships.
For utilities, working capital cycle reflects regulated pricing mechanics and long-term settlement contracts — DSO/DIO/DPO should be treated as contextual signals rather than pure efficiency indicators.
Watchpoints
DSO increased by +14.0 days, pointing to slower receivables turnover.
Working Capital Efficiency
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Is financial risk significant?
Leverage is safe but FCF is negative at 15.8bn due to capex of 143.1bn — an investment choice, not an urgent risk.
Leverage & Liquidity
Leverage looks fairly comfortable, with net debt / equity at 0.04x and interest coverage at 12.63x.
At present, short-term debt accounts for 51.9% of total debt, cash equals 64.5% of debt, and total debt stands at 52.7bn.
Leverage for utilities reflects long-term capital needs for fixed assets and recovery through regulated pricing — elevated leverage is structural to the industry.
Leverage and liquidity trend
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Cash Flow
With safe leverage noted above, cash flow below shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 103.9bn in 2025, against investing cash flow of -152.7bn.
Post-investment cash flow was negative +48.8bn. Financing cash flow was positive +3.7bn.
CFO / net income was 4.11x.
After spending +143.1bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −15.8bn.
For utilities, high capex and long investment cycles are structural — short-term FCF volatility does not reflect long-term cash generation through regulated pricing.
Cash Conversion
TTM Cash Conversion · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Investment Takeaway
The business is under real pressure, but the current picture has not turned broadly adverse. A notable area has clearly weakened, making the near-term outlook hard to call bright; even so, other parts of the business are still holding up, with some core pressures remaining the main constraint. The next watchpoint is capital efficiency, with ROIC at 7.9%. The main offsetting support comes from earnings conversion is confirmed, with CFO/NI at 4.11x.
Improvement: earnings conversion looks more confirmed, with CFO / net income at 4.11x.
Watchpoint: Capital efficiency needs cycle context.
Statement Data
| Item | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net Revenue
|
277.1 | 277.7 | 270.1 | 266.1 | 253.6 |
|
Cost of Goods Sold
|
181.6 | 184.8 | 177.9 | 176.4 | 0.0 |
|
Gross Profit
|
95.5 | 92.9 | 92.2 | 89.7 | 93.2 |
|
Financial Expenses
|
2.4 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | -4.7 |
|
Selling Expenses
|
29.7 | 27.0 | 25.3 | 25.2 | -24.0 |
|
General and Administrative Expenses
|
30.8 | 26.2 | 26.4 | 25.7 | -23.8 |
|
Operating Profit
|
33.9 | 38.4 | 37.3 | 35.2 | 40.9 |
|
Profit Before Tax
|
35.1 | 37.6 | 37.2 | 35.1 | 41.8 |
|
Net Income
|
31.1 | 33.4 | 33.0 | 30.5 | 36.8 |
|
Profit Attributable to Parent
|
31.1 | 33.4 | 33.0 | 30.5 | 36.8 |
|
Earnings per Share
|
908.00 | 975.00 | 965.00 | 891.00 | 1,075.00 |
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