NDW

Cấp nước Nam Định ·UPCOM ·2026Q1

▼ Under pressure

Capital efficiency needs cycle context ROE 7.88%
Price
14,900
Latest close
13 May 2026
P/E 16.48x
P/B 1.23x
EPS 904
BVPS 12,128
ROE 7.8%
ROA 6.0%
Profit Margin 11.0%
Asset Turnover 0.54x
Equity Mult. 1.31x

TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2026Q1 basis, NDW is declining across multiple metrics versus the same period, suggesting current pressure is not coming from just one side — profit momentum has been slowing across consecutive periods. What remains unclear is whether the business can stabilize before this trend deepens.

TTM REVENUE
VND 281bn
+2.3%YoY
NET MARGIN
11.03%
−0.8ppYoY
TTM NET PROFIT
VND 31bn
−4.8%YoY
Metric Q1'26 Q4'25 Q3'25 Q2'25 Q1'25 Q4'24 Q3'24 Q2'24 Q1'24 Q4'23 Q3'23 Q2'23
Revenue 67.9 67.1 75.7 70.1 64.3 68.1 72.9 69.0 67.6 68.0 71.0 66.2
Growth +1% -11% +8% +9% -6% -7% +6% +2% -1% -4% +7%
Net Income 9.7 -0.9 11.4 10.8 9.6 -0.3 11.6 11.6 10.5 -5.6 16.0 12.2
Net Margin 14.21% -1.33% 15.07% 15.41% 15.02% -0.49% 15.97% 16.76% 15.46% -8.26% 22.56% 18.37%

Drivers of NDW's profit

TTM

Net profit attributable to parent declined vs last year, mainly due to higher administrative expenses. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Gross profit ↑ 6.0bn
Other profit ↑ 1.8bn
Tax ↓ 0.2bn
Administrative expenses ↑ 6.0bn
Selling expenses ↑ 2.9bn
Finance costs ↑ 0.4bn
TTM

Net profit attributable to parent increased vs prior quarter, mainly helped by higher gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Gross profit ↑ 2.4bn
Administrative expenses ↑ 1.2bn
Selling expenses ↑ 0.7bn
Finance costs ↑ 0.3bn
Financial income ↓ 0.2bn

Financial Highlights

Detailed analysis of each financial dimension

ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

2025Q1 8.6% = 11.9% × 0.58 × 1.25
2026Q1 7.8% = 11.0% × 0.54 × 1.31

ROE fell from 8.6% to 7.8% — asset turnover weakened the most, though leverage still provided support.

Net margin: 11.0% -0.8pp Asset turnover: 0.54x -0.04x Leverage: 1.31x +0.05x

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins narrowed but earnings quality remains clean — pressure is mainly operational.

very positive positive stable watch under pressure

What is driving the margin?

Net margin narrowed to 11.03%, falling 0.8pp. The main pressure is SG&A / Revenue rose 2.7pp, outweighing the improvement in Gross margin rose 1.4pp (in addition, Other profit / Revenue rose 0.6pp added support while Net financial result / Revenue fell 0.3pp remained a drag).

The pressure comes from core operations — this is a concerning type of decline, not a one-off movement.

Profitability trend

Net Margin 11.03% −0.8pp
Gross Margin 34.83% +1.4pp
SG&A / Revenue 22.19% +2.7pp

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency for utilities should be read alongside regulated tariffs and long-cycle depreciation — ROIC of 7.9% reflects a large fixed-asset base.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

ROIC fell to 7.88%, losing 2.3pp. That translates to 7.88 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. Both NOPAT margin narrowed 1.4pp and capital turnover fell 0.11x, while invested capital rose by 56bn — pressure came from both operational efficiency and asset efficiency.

For utilities, ROIC reflects returns on a large fixed-asset base — this is a reference signal and should be read alongside regulated tariffs.

CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

ROIC 7.88% −2.3pp
NOPAT Margin 10.68% −1.4pp
Capital Turnover 0.74x −0.11x
Average Invested Capital 380.6bn +56.4bn

Balance Sheet

ROIC for utilities reflects a large fixed-asset base and regulated tariffs — the balance sheet below adds perspective. Capital structure is conservative with low leverage — liabilities at 0.38x equity, net debt at 0.04x equity.

Over the last 12 months, working capital released 0.0bn of cash.

Working Capital Drivers

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Receivables were broadly stable → neutral CFO:
Inventories were broadly stable → neutral CFO:
Payables were broadly stable → neutral CFO:

Working Capital Efficiency

Working capital is being managed more efficiently, supporting overall capital efficiency. Cash conversion cycle improved by 11.8 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO fell 5.4 days, DSO rose 14.0 days, and DPO rose 20.5 days.

Extended payment timing is the main driver — consider whether this trades off supplier relationships.

For utilities, working capital cycle reflects regulated pricing mechanics and long-term settlement contracts — DSO/DIO/DPO should be treated as contextual signals rather than pure efficiency indicators.

Watchpoints

Receivables collection is slowing

DSO increased by +14.0 days, pointing to slower receivables turnover.

Working Capital Efficiency

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Receivables 17.6 days +14.0 days
Inventory 38.5 days −5.4 days
Payables 29.1 days +20.5 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 26.9 days −11.8 days

Is financial risk significant?

Leverage is safe but FCF is negative at 15.8bn due to capex of 143.1bn — an investment choice, not an urgent risk.

Leverage & Liquidity

Leverage looks fairly comfortable, with net debt / equity at 0.04x and interest coverage at 12.63x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 51.9% of total debt, cash equals 64.5% of debt, and total debt stands at 52.7bn.

Leverage for utilities reflects long-term capital needs for fixed assets and recovery through regulated pricing — elevated leverage is structural to the industry.

Leverage and liquidity trend

Net Debt / Equity 0.04x +0.18x
Interest Coverage 12.63x −3.74x
Cash / Debt 64.5% −227.4pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt 51.9% +36.7pp
CFO / NI 4.11x +1.87x

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Cash Flow

With safe leverage noted above, cash flow below shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 103.9bn in 2025, against investing cash flow of -152.7bn.

Post-investment cash flow was negative +48.8bn. Financing cash flow was positive +3.7bn.

CFO / net income was 4.11x.

After spending +143.1bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −15.8bn.

For utilities, high capex and long investment cycles are structural — short-term FCF volatility does not reflect long-term cash generation through regulated pricing.

Cash Conversion

TTM Cash Conversion · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

CFO TTM 127.2bn +54.5bn
Cash Capex 143.1bn +101.3bn
FCF TTM −15.8bn −46.8bn

Investment Takeaway

The business is under real pressure, but the current picture has not turned broadly adverse. A notable area has clearly weakened, making the near-term outlook hard to call bright; even so, other parts of the business are still holding up, with some core pressures remaining the main constraint. The next watchpoint is capital efficiency, with ROIC at 7.9%. The main offsetting support comes from earnings conversion is confirmed, with CFO/NI at 4.11x.

Improvement: earnings conversion looks more confirmed, with CFO / net income at 4.11x.

Watchpoint: Capital efficiency needs cycle context.

Statement Data

Item 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Net Revenue
277.1 277.7 270.1 266.1 253.6
Cost of Goods Sold
181.6 184.8 177.9 176.4 0.0
Gross Profit
95.5 92.9 92.2 89.7 93.2
Financial Expenses
2.4 2.3 3.9 3.8 -4.7
Selling Expenses
29.7 27.0 25.3 25.2 -24.0
General and Administrative Expenses
30.8 26.2 26.4 25.7 -23.8
Operating Profit
33.9 38.4 37.3 35.2 40.9
Profit Before Tax
35.1 37.6 37.2 35.1 41.8
Net Income
31.1 33.4 33.0 30.5 36.8
Profit Attributable to Parent
31.1 33.4 33.0 30.5 36.8
Earnings per Share
908.00 975.00 965.00 891.00 1,075.00

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