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iShareInvest Research

UPCOM · Quý 4/2024

NS2

Nước sạch Số 2 Hà Nội

Analysis of business results & financial statements · Quý 4/2024

● Maintaining

Trailing net profit reached 19.4bn, rose 4.4bn compared with the same period last year. Key positives came from higher gross profit. Offsetting pressure came mainly from higher selling expenses, higher administrative expenses, higher finance costs, and lower financial income. Detailed impact is shown below:

See what is changing ↓
P/E
—
P/B
—
EPS
342
BVPS
10,347
ROE
3.3%
ROA
1.3%
Market price
—

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2024Q4 basis, NS2 is maintaining revenue growth, but margins have not improved proportionally — profit is at an all-time high. Notably, most of the profit comes from non-core sources — this needs careful evaluation before concluding on growth quality.

Profit bridge

Vs last year · TTM

  1. Gross profit
  2. Selling expenses
  3. Administrative expenses
  4. Finance costs
  5. Financial income
Unit: VND bn. Green bars support profit; red bars reduce profit.

A single data point, or a trajectory?

Latest eight quarters · Quý 4/2024

MetricQ4'24Q3'24Q2'24Q1'24Q4'23Q3'23Q2'23Q1'23
Revenue198.2199.6185.3156.7164.4152.1129.9105.8
LNST-9.99.112.77.610.05.00.00.0
Net margin-5.00%4.54%6.84%4.87%6.06%3.26%0.03%0.05%

Revenue

198bn

Net income

-10bn

Net margin

-5.00%

A closer look at what is happening inside the business

A company's statements are read with the questions that fit its type of business.

01

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins are under pressure while earnings still rely significantly on non-core sources.

Revenue Growth

▲

Is growth real and durable?

Trailing-12-month revenue grew 34.0% year on year — but the quarterly pace is slowing (+48% → +21%).

4 of the last 4 quarters grew year on year.

Revenue TTM
740bn
+34.0%
Latest quarter YoY
+21%
slowing

What is driving the margin?

●

Net margin stands at 2.63%, broadly flat versus the same period. Supportive factors and pressure points are offsetting one another.

Margin is nearly flat but the underlying components are moving — this is a transitional phase, more time is needed to see the real trend.

Net Margin
2.63%
−0.1pp
Gross Margin
48.29%
+4.7pp
SG&A / Revenue
44.82%
+3.5pp
Non-core / Revenue
−0.17%
−1.4pp

TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

Non-core sources share remains high

Even though contribution decreased by 1.4pp, non-core sources still accounts for 89.4% of PBT — earnings durability should be monitored in coming periods.

Cash Flow

▲

Is profit converting into cash?

With leverage safe, cash flow shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 165.4bn against investing cash flow of -223.0bn (annual cash-flow figures for 2024).

Post-investment cash flow was negative +57.6bn. Financing cash flow was positive +93.4bn.

CFO / net income was 8,51 lần.

After spending +197.9bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −32.4bn.

For utilities, high capex and long investment cycles are structural — short-term FCF volatility does not reflect long-term cash generation through regulated pricing.

Earnings Quality

▼

How much income is non-core?

Non-core income reaches 89.4% of pre-tax profit — core earnings are thinner than the headline.

Within that, net financial result at −94.7%, other profit at +89.4% of PBT.

Non-core / PBT
89.4%
high
Net financial / PBT
−94.7%
Other profit / PBT
89.4%
02

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency for utilities should be read alongside regulated tariffs and long-cycle depreciation — ROIC of 0.2% reflects a large fixed-asset base.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

▲

ROIC edged up to 0.21%, rising 0.6pp. That translates to 0.21 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. Both NOPAT margin rose 0.9pp and capital turnover rose 0.13x, while invested capital rose by 99bn — capital-return quality improved from both sides.

For utilities, ROIC reflects returns on a large fixed-asset base — this is a reference signal and should be read alongside regulated tariffs.

Working Capital Efficiency

▲

Working capital is being managed more efficiently, supporting overall capital efficiency. Cash conversion cycle improved by 8.0 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO fell 4.3 days, DSO fell 2.4 days, and DPO rose 1.3 days.

All 3 drivers (collection, inventory, payables) are improving — working capital turnover is strengthening across the board.

For utilities, working capital cycle reflects regulated pricing mechanics and long-term settlement contracts — DSO/DIO/DPO should be treated as contextual signals rather than pure efficiency indicators.

DuPont

What drives ROE?

Net margin 2.6% -0.1pp
Asset turnover 0.49x +0.09x
Financial leverage 2.56x +0.21x
ROE 3.3% +0.7pp

ROE rose from 2.6% to 3.3% — mainly driven by asset turnover.

03

Is financial risk significant?

Leverage is safe but FCF is negative at 32.4bn due to capex of 197.9bn — an investment choice, not an urgent risk.

Leverage & Liquidity

▼

Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 0.72x and interest coverage only at 0.09x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 9.2% of total debt, cash equals 18.2% of debt, and total debt stands at 518.7bn.

Leverage for utilities reflects long-term capital needs for fixed assets and recovery through regulated pricing — elevated leverage is structural to the industry.

Net Debt / Equity
0.72x
+0.11x
Interest Coverage
0.09x
+0.29x
Cash / Debt
18.2%
+4.2pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt
9.2%
−2.5pp

TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

Interest coverage is thin

Interest coverage is 0.09x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.

Cash buffer is thin relative to debt

Cash / debt stands at 18.2%, leaving limited liquidity buffer to monitor.

Balance Sheet

▲

ROIC for utilities reflects a large fixed-asset base and regulated tariffs. Capital structure is balanced — liabilities at 1.65x equity, net debt at 0.72x equity.

None

Over the last 12 months, working capital released 4.8bn of cash, mainly thanks to lower receivables and higher payables. Pressure from higher inventories only partly offset that benefit.

Research synthesis

What this reporting period is showing

The business does not yet provide a clear enough conclusion — not due to lack of data, but because the industry's nature makes many indicators prone to cyclical distortion. The reasonable reading is to keep the thesis in wait-for-confirmation mode. The next item to monitor is the earnings mix, when non-core contribution is −94.7%. The main risk still sits in leverage and liquidity, with interest coverage at 0.09x.

  • Watchpoint: cash flow is currently keeping pace with accounting earnings, with CFO / net income at 8.51x. Even so, net financial result still accounts for −94.7% of PBT, so the earnings mix still needs monitoring.
  • Key risk: leverage and liquidity still require discipline, with interest coverage only at 0.09x.

Questions for the next period

  1. Whether revenue sustains its +34,0% YoY pace or begins to slow.

  2. Whether margins hold around the current 2.63% level or narrow again.

  3. Whether operating cash flow holds its 165.4bn (cumulative for 2024) level in upcoming periods or weakens.

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