TCH
Đầu tư Dịch vụ Tài chính Hoàng Huy ·HOSE ·2025Q3
▼▼ Declining sharply
TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity
What Is Changing
On a TTM 2025Q3 basis, TCH posted a very sharp profit drop versus the same period, showing that pressure has clearly fed through to the bottom line — profit is at an all-time high. More notably, a significant portion of profit is supported by non-core sources, further affecting earnings quality.
| Metric | Q3'25 | Q2'25 | Q1'25 | Q2'24 | Q4'23 | Q3'23 | Q2'23 | Q1'23 | Q4'22 | Q3'22 | Q2'22 | Q1'22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 317.0 | 346.0 | 390.4 | 1,413.6 | 1,621.8 | 1,613.1 | 253.0 | 316.8 | 551.9 | 947.8 | 359.7 | 233.9 |
| Growth | -8% | -11% | -72% | -13% | +1% | +538% | -20% | -43% | -42% | +164% | +54% | — |
| Net Income | 51.4 | 56.3 | 56.2 | 263.7 | 455.3 | 459.5 | 96.8 | 170.0 | 221.9 | 197.6 | -27.7 | 100.6 |
| Net Margin | 16.21% | 16.29% | 14.40% | 18.66% | 28.07% | 28.49% | 38.28% | 53.67% | 40.22% | 20.85% | -7.69% | 43.01% |
Drivers of TCH's profit
Net profit attributable to parent declined vs last year, mainly due to lower gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Net profit attributable to parent declined vs prior quarter, mainly due to lower gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Financial Highlights
Detailed analysis of each financial dimension
Is the profit sustainable?
Margins are under pressure while earnings still rely significantly on non-core sources.
What is driving the margin?
Net margin fell to 17.34%, losing 13.7pp. The main pressure comes from Gross margin fell 6.6pp and SG&A / Revenue rose 4.0pp (with lingering pressure from Other profit / Revenue fell 3.9pp).
Margin is under pressure from multiple sides — temporary and structural components need to be separated to properly assess the risk.
Profitability trend
TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2025Q3
Watchpoints
Even though contribution decreased by 5.5pp, financial result still accounts for 50.1% of PBT — earnings durability should be monitored in coming periods.
Is capital being used efficiently?
Capital efficiency for residential developers should be read alongside project cycles and handover timing — ROIC of 4.1% fluctuates with handover cycles.
Is capital being deployed efficiently?
ROIC fell to 4.08%, losing 6.0pp. That translates to 4.08 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. Both NOPAT margin narrowed 10.6pp and capital turnover fell 0.12x, with invested capital easing up by 509bn — pressure came from both operational efficiency and asset efficiency.
For real estate developers, ROIC moves with project cycles — this is a reference signal, and the real assessment needs upcoming handover periods.
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND
TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2025Q3
Balance Sheet
ROIC for residential developers swings with project cycles and handover timing — the balance sheet below adds perspective. Capital structure is notably light for the real estate sector — liabilities at 0.18x equity, with a net cash position equivalent to 0.13x equity.
Development inventory ended the period at 9,836.7bn, about 67.3% of total assets — reflecting projects in progress awaiting handover.
Over the last 12 months, working capital released 3,422.1bn of cash, mainly thanks to higher payables. Pressure from higher receivables and higher inventories only partly offset that benefit.
Working Capital Drivers
TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2025Q3
Is financial risk significant?
Check leverage, liquidity, and cash-flow conversion.
Leverage & Liquidity
Track net leverage, interest coverage, and the liquidity buffer on the balance sheet.
At present, cash equals 587.9% of debt and total debt stands at 390.0bn.
Leverage for residential developers should be read alongside project cycles, development inventory, and handover timing.
Leverage and liquidity trend
TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2025Q3
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow reached -4,540.0bn in 2023, against investing cash flow of 5,121.6bn.
Post-investment cash flow was positive +581.6bn. Financing cash flow was negative +458.8bn.
CFO / net income was 10.59x.
After spending +19.3bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of +3,665.7bn.
For residential developers, FCF and CFO swing with project cycles — negative during investment phases and positive at handover — not representative of single-year efficiency.
Cash Conversion
TTM Cash Conversion · 2023Q4 -> 2025Q3
Investment Takeaway
The business is under real pressure, but the current picture has not turned broadly adverse. A notable area has clearly weakened, making the near-term outlook hard to call bright; even so, other parts of the business are still holding up, with margins remain under pressure remaining the main constraint, with net margin down 13.7 pp. The next watchpoint is the earnings mix, when non-core contribution is 34.3%. The main offsetting support comes from balance-sheet flexibility, with net cash/equity at about -0.13x.
Improvement: the balance sheet remains flexible, with a net cash position equivalent to 0.13x of equity.
Watchpoint: cash flow is currently keeping pace with accounting earnings, with CFO / net income at 10.59x. Even so, net financial result still accounts for 34.3% of PBT, so the earnings mix still needs monitoring.
Key risk: profitability remains under pressure, with trailing-12M net margin at 17.34% after a 13.7pp decline versus the same period last year.
Statement Data
| Item | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net Revenue
|
3,803.3 | 2,093.2 | 2,223.5 | 4,565.8 |
|
Cost of Goods Sold
|
2,273.9 | 1,531.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|
Gross Profit
|
1,529.4 | 561.4 | 723.6 | 1,118.8 |
|
Financial Expenses
|
37.9 | 93.5 | -28.0 | -72.7 |
|
Selling Expenses
|
266.6 | 76.3 | -61.8 | -81.7 |
|
General and Administrative Expenses
|
72.3 | 76.4 | -79.8 | -48.8 |
|
Operating Profit
|
1,518.2 | 757.1 | 858.9 | 1,202.7 |
|
Profit Before Tax
|
1,534.1 | 750.9 | 868.2 | 1,210.3 |
|
Net Income
|
1,243.2 | 480.2 | 653.2 | 1,003.9 |
|
Profit Attributable to Parent
|
743.9 | 246.0 | 476.5 | 908.8 |
|
Earnings per Share
|
1,113.00 | 368.00 | 1,019.00 | 600.00 |
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