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iShareInvest Research

UPCOM · Quý 4/2024

BCR

BCG Land

Analysis of business results & financial statements · Quý 4/2024

▲ Showing improvement

Trailing net profit reached 258.6bn, rose 161.4bn compared with the previous quarter. Key positives came from higher associates income and lower deferred tax. Offsetting pressure came mainly from lower gross profit, higher tax, and higher finance costs. Detailed impact is shown below:

See what is changing ↓
P/E
1.08x
P/B
0.08x
EPS
923
BVPS
13,037
ROE
4.3%
ROA
2.0%
Market price
1,000
17 Sep 2026

What Is Changing

On a Năm 2024 basis, BCR posted a sharp profit increase versus the same period, suggesting a clear improvement from a low base — earnings have been recovering gradually over multiple periods. However, most of the profit comes from non-core sources — this needs careful evaluation before concluding on growth quality.

Sector note: developer revenue is recognised at handover — large quarter-to-quarter swings are normal; read on a trailing-12-month basis and against the delivery schedule.

A single data point, or a trajectory?

Latest eight quarters · Quý 4/2024

MetricQ4'24Q3'24Q2'24Q1'24Q4'23Q3'23
Revenue74.4287.397.7210.0361.1229.9
LNST153.543.741.520.24.811.7
Net margin206.23%15.22%42.50%9.61%1.32%5.09%

Revenue

74bn

Net income

153bn

Net margin

206.23%

A closer look at what is happening inside the business

A company's statements are read with the questions that fit its type of business.

01

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins are broadly flat — earnings quality is the factor to watch.

What is driving the margin?

●

Track net margin changes and the operating components against the same period last year.

None

Developer revenue is recognised at handover — large swings between quarters are a property-sector feature, not a business trend. Read on a TTM basis and against the delivery schedule.

2023Q3: 229.9bn

2023Q4: 361.1bn

2024Q1: 210.0bn

2024Q2: 97.7bn

2024Q3: 287.3bn

2024Q4: 74.4bn

Net Margin
38.68%
+24.1pp
Gross Margin
19.07%
SG&A / Revenue
24.82%
Non-core / Revenue
42.97%

TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

Financial result is supporting margin

Margin support from financial result remains high (93.7% of PBT) — sustainability should be monitored.

Cash Flow

●

Is profit converting into cash?

With leverage safe, cash flow shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 77.9bn against investing cash flow of 437.3bn (annual cash-flow figures for 2024).

Post-investment cash flow was positive +515.2bn. Financing cash flow was negative +548.0bn.

CFO / net income was 0,30 lần.

After spending +33.0bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of +44.9bn.

For residential developers, FCF and CFO swing with project cycles — negative during investment phases and positive at handover — not representative of single-year efficiency.

Earnings Quality

▼

How much income is non-core?

Non-core income reaches 93.7% of pre-tax profit — core earnings are thinner than the headline.

Within that, net financial result at +85.8%, other profit at +7.9% of PBT.

Non-core / PBT
93.7%
high
Net financial / PBT
85.8%
Other profit / PBT
7.9%
02

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency for residential developers should be read alongside project cycles and handover timing — ROIC of 2.6% fluctuates with handover cycles.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

●

ROIC currently stands at 2.55%. Track NOPAT margin and capital turnover to assess capital efficiency.

For real estate developers, ROIC moves with project cycles — this is a reference signal, and the real assessment needs upcoming handover periods.

03

Is financial risk significant?

Financial risk is low — leverage is safe, both CFO and FCF are positive.

Leverage & Liquidity

▼

Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 0.49x and interest coverage only at 0.62x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 13.0% of total debt, cash equals 0.5% of debt, and total debt stands at 3,071.4bn.

Leverage for residential developers should be read alongside project cycles, development inventory, and handover timing.

Net Debt / Equity
0.49x
−0.10x
Interest Coverage
0.62x
Cash / Debt
0.5%
−0.8pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt
13.0%
−2.4pp

TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

Interest coverage is thin

Interest coverage is 0.62x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.

Cash buffer is thin relative to debt

Cash / debt stands at 0.5%, leaving limited liquidity buffer to monitor.

Balance Sheet

●

ROIC for residential developers swings with project cycles and handover timing. Capital structure is relatively light for the real estate sector — liabilities at 1.16x equity, net debt at 0.49x equity.

Customer advances 1,658.0bn (as of 2024Q4) — deposits on units/projects not yet handed over: revenue already sold but not yet recognised, a lead indicator of profit in upcoming delivery quarters. Advances rose 25.14% YoY — strong sales locking in future revenue.

Customer advances: 1,658.0bn · YoY +333.0bn · QoQ +483.8bn

Locked-in revenue: ~9.91x quarters of revenue (TTM)

Inventory pre-sold: 58.84%

Project inventory splits in two at 2024Q4: 2,817.7bn near-delivery stock (short-term) and 961.1bn construction-in-progress (long-term). Weighted toward near-delivery — the revenue-recognition cycle is approaching.

Near-delivery (ST): 2,817.7bn (74.57%)

Construction-in-progress (LT): 961.1bn (25.43%)

For a developer the question is not debt-to-equity but whether borrowings are backed by the project pipeline. At 2024Q4, net debt 3,056.8bn vs project value 3,778.8bn — ratio 80.89%; the project pipeline backs net debt 1.24x over.

Net debt / project value: 80.89%

Development inventory ended the period at 2,817.7bn, about 21.2% of total assets — reflecting projects in progress awaiting handover.

Over the last 12 months, working capital absorbed 80.7bn of cash, mainly because of higher receivables. Part of that drag was offset by lower inventories and higher payables.

Research synthesis

What this reporting period is showing

The business is showing brightening signals, but the improvement is still early and not yet thick enough to read as a confirmed trend. Even so, earnings quality still needs closer monitoring because net financial result remains elevated. The main risk still sits in leverage and liquidity, with interest coverage at 0.62x.

  • Watchpoint: the earnings mix still needs monitoring, with net financial result still accounting for 85.8% of PBT and CFO / net income currently at 0.30x.
  • Key risk: leverage and liquidity still require discipline, with interest coverage only at 0.62x.

Questions for the next period

  1. Whether revenue stabilizes after a −29,1% YoY decline or keeps falling.

  2. Whether margins hold around the current 38.68% level or narrow again.

  3. Whether operating cash flow holds its 77.9bn (cumulative for 2024) level in upcoming periods or weakens.

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