XMP

Thủy điện Xuân Minh ·UPCOM ·2026Q1

▲▲ Improving positively

Operating efficiency is improving Net margin 36.49%, +10.48pp YoY
Price
16,000
Latest close
29 May 2026
P/E 6.34x
P/B 1.22x
EPS 2,525
BVPS 13,141
ROE 16.3%
ROA 8.2%
Profit Margin 36.5%
Asset Turnover 0.23x
Equity Mult. 1.97x

TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2026Q1 basis, XMP has not accelerated revenue sharply, but profitability is improving visibly — profit is at an all-time high. Profit growth is driven mainly by better operations rather than scale expansion — a foundation that tends to be more durable.

TTM REVENUE
VND 84bn
+18.7%YoY
NET MARGIN
36.49%
+10.5ppYoY
TTM NET PROFIT
VND 31bn
+66.5%YoY
Metric Q1'26 Q4'25 Q3'25 Q2'25 Q1'25 Q3'24 Q2'24 Q1'24 Q4'23 Q3'23 Q2'23 Q1'23
Revenue 22.6 23.1 15.0 23.0 19.6 14.0 18.0 18.9 17.3 9.4 18.4 20.3
Growth -2% +54% -35% +17% +39% -22% -5% +9% +85% -49% -9%
Net Income 10.1 8.1 2.7 9.6 7.3 1.5 4.1 5.4 3.7 -5.5 2.6 4.2
Net Margin 44.57% 34.94% 18.30% 41.97% 37.48% 10.46% 22.79% 28.75% 21.27% -59.10% 14.08% 20.70%

Drivers of XMP's profit

TTM

Net profit attributable to parent increased vs last year, mainly helped by higher gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Gross profit ↑ 10.4bn
Finance costs ↓ 1.9bn
TTM

Net profit attributable to parent increased vs prior quarter, mainly helped by higher gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Gross profit ↑ 2.5bn
Other profit ↑ 0.3bn
Administrative expenses ↑ 0.3bn

Financial Highlights

Detailed analysis of each financial dimension

ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

2025Q1 10.5% = 26.0% × 0.18 × 2.23
2026Q1 16.3% = 36.5% × 0.23 × 1.97

ROE rose from 10.5% to 16.3% — mainly driven by net margin, despite leverage moving in the opposite direction.

Net margin: 36.5% +10.5pp Asset turnover: 0.23x +0.05x Leverage: 1.97x -0.26x

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins are improving and earnings quality is solid — a durable foundation for ROE.

very positive positive stable watch under pressure

What is driving the margin?

Net margin expanded to 36.49%, rising 10.5pp. The main driver is Gross margin rose 3.3pp and SG&A / Revenue fell 1.6pp, moving in line with the stronger net margin (with additional support from Net financial result / Revenue rose 6.1pp).

Margin improves from both core operations and non-core items — the core foundation is positive, but the sustainability of non-core contributions needs monitoring.

Profitability trend

Net Margin 36.49% +10.5pp
Gross Margin 61.66% +3.3pp
SG&A / Revenue 5.74% −1.6pp

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency for utilities should be read alongside regulated tariffs and long-cycle depreciation — ROIC reflects a large fixed-asset base.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

Track how much operating profit the business generates on invested capital.

For utilities, ROIC reflects returns on a large fixed-asset base — this is a reference signal and should be read alongside regulated tariffs.

CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

ROIC
NOPAT Margin
Capital Turnover 0.23x +0.05x
Average Invested Capital 363.7bn −20.5bn

Balance Sheet

ROIC for utilities reflects a large fixed-asset base and regulated tariffs — the balance sheet below adds perspective. Capital structure is balanced — liabilities at 0.97x equity, net debt at 0.81x equity.

Over the last 12 months, working capital absorbed 6.5bn of cash, mainly because of higher receivables and higher inventories.

Working Capital Drivers

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Receivables increased → lower CFO: −1.8bn
Inventories increased → lower CFO: −0.2bn
Payables decreased → lower CFO: −4.5bn

Working Capital Efficiency

Working capital is being managed more efficiently, supporting overall capital efficiency. Cash conversion cycle improved by 1.4 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO fell 0.2 days, DSO fell 3.2 days, and DPO fell 2.0 days.

Working capital cycle is flat — components are offsetting each other.

For utilities, working capital cycle reflects regulated pricing mechanics and long-term settlement contracts — DSO/DIO/DPO should be treated as contextual signals rather than pure efficiency indicators.

Working Capital Efficiency

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Receivables 37.3 days −3.2 days
Inventory 24.7 days −0.2 days
Payables 8.1 days −2.0 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 54.0 days −1.4 days

Is financial risk significant?

Check leverage, liquidity, and cash-flow conversion.

Leverage & Liquidity

Leverage is balanced for now, with net debt / equity at 0.81x and interest coverage at 2.09x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 31.5% of total debt, cash equals 0.8% of debt, and total debt stands at 160.6bn.

Leverage for utilities reflects long-term capital needs for fixed assets and recovery through regulated pricing — elevated leverage is structural to the industry.

Watchpoints

Cash buffer is thin relative to debt

Cash / debt stands at 0.8%, leaving limited liquidity buffer to monitor.

Leverage and liquidity trend

Net Debt / Equity 0.81x −0.27x
Interest Coverage 2.09x +0.98x
Cash / Debt 0.8% +0.3pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt 31.5% +0.9pp
CFO / NI 1.37x −0.92x

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Cash Flow

With safe leverage noted above, cash flow below shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 42.9bn in 2025, against investing cash flow of 0.0bn.

Post-investment cash flow was positive +42.9bn. Financing cash flow was negative +44.3bn.

CFO / net income was 1.37x.

Track how much investment can be funded internally from operating cash flow.

For utilities, high capex and long investment cycles are structural — short-term FCF volatility does not reflect long-term cash generation through regulated pricing.

Cash Conversion

TTM Cash Conversion · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

CFO TTM 41.9bn −0.1bn
Cash Capex
FCF TTM

Investment Takeaway

The business is showing brightening signals, but the improvement is still early and not yet thick enough to read as a confirmed trend. The brighter spot is operating efficiency, with net margin improving 10.5 pp. The next item to monitor is capital efficiency. The main risk still sits in leverage and liquidity, with interest coverage at 2.09x.

Improvement: operating efficiency is getting better, with trailing-12M net margin at 36.49% after expanding 10.5pp versus the same period last year.

Watchpoint: Capital efficiency needs cycle context.

Key risk: leverage and liquidity remain a pressure point, with net debt / equity at 0.81x and a thin cash buffer.

Statement Data

Item 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Net Revenue
80.6 71.5 65.3 80.0 73.3
Cost of Goods Sold
31.5 29.7 29.4 30.1 0.0
Gross Profit
49.1 41.8 35.9 49.9 45.8
Financial Expenses
15.3 17.4 25.3 23.6 -26.2
Selling Expenses
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
General and Administrative Expenses
4.5 5.5 5.0 4.7 -4.2
Operating Profit
29.3 19.0 5.6 21.6 15.4
Profit Before Tax
29.1 18.8 5.8 22.0 15.4
Net Income
27.8 17.8 4.9 20.6 15.4
Profit Attributable to Parent
27.8 17.8 4.9 20.6 15.4
Earnings per Share
1,831.00 1,165.00 308.00 1,375.00 1,027.93

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