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iShareInvest Research

HOSE · Quý 2/2026

TMP

Thủy điện Thác Mơ

Analysis of business results & financial statements · Quý 2/2026

▼▼ Declining sharply

Trailing net profit reached 350.5bn, fell 22.6bn compared with the same period last year. Key positives came from higher financial income, lower tax, and lower finance costs. Offsetting pressure came mainly from lower gross profit and higher administrative expenses. Detailed impact is shown below:

See what is changing ↓
P/E
10.03x
P/B
1.90x
EPS
5,007
BVPS
26,376
ROE
20.0%
ROA
16.4%
Market price
50,200
19 Oct 2026

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2026Q2 basis, TMP is going through a period of clear decline across multiple metrics at once — margins have been compressing consistently over multiple periods. What still needs to be determined is whether the business can find a stabilization point in the near term, or whether current pressure has not yet run its course.

Profit bridge

Vs last year · TTM

  1. Financial income
  2. Tax
  3. Finance costs
  4. Other
  5. Gross profit
  6. Administrative expenses
Unit: VND bn. Green bars support profit; red bars reduce profit.

A single data point, or a trajectory?

Latest eight quarters · Quý 2/2026

MetricQ2'26Q1'26Q4'25Q3'25Q2'25Q1'25Q4'24Q3'24
Revenue191.1159.6193.2239.6186.0134.7232.9256.0
LNST105.865.675.7108.885.452.1109.2131.7
Net margin55.34%41.07%39.18%45.44%45.95%38.70%46.89%51.45%

Revenue

191bn

Net income

106bn

Net margin

55.34%

A closer look at what is happening inside the business

A company's statements are read with the questions that fit its type of business.

01

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins narrowed but earnings quality remains clean — pressure is mainly operational.

Revenue Growth

●

Is growth real and durable?

Trailing-12-month revenue declined 3.2% year on year — not from a single spike: quarterly growth stepped up from −6% to +3%.

2 of the last 4 quarters grew year on year.

Revenue TTM
783bn
−3.2%
Latest quarter YoY
+3%
accelerating

What is driving the margin?

▼

Net margin narrowed to 45.42%, falling 1.3pp. The main pressure comes from Gross margin fell 5.0pp and SG&A / Revenue rose 1.2pp (with additional support from Net financial result / Revenue rose 2.7pp).

Margin is under pressure from multiple sides — temporary and structural components need to be separated to properly assess the risk.

Net Margin
45.42%
−1.3pp
Gross Margin
52.50%
−5.0pp
SG&A / Revenue
8.72%
+1.2pp

TTM YoY · 2025Q2 -> 2026Q2

Cash Flow

●

Is profit converting into cash?

With leverage safe, cash flow shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 514.8bn against investing cash flow of -320.0bn (annual cash-flow figures for 2025).

Post-investment cash flow was positive +194.8bn. Financing cash flow was negative +142.5bn.

CFO / net income was 1,02 lần.

After spending +82.6bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of +274.4bn.

For utilities, high capex and long investment cycles are structural — short-term FCF volatility does not reflect long-term cash generation through regulated pricing.

Earnings Quality

▲

How much income is non-core?

About 91% of pre-tax profit comes from core operations.

Within that, net financial result at +9.5% of PBT.

Non-core / PBT
9.5%
low
Net financial / PBT
9.5%
02

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency for utilities should be read alongside regulated tariffs and long-cycle depreciation — ROIC of 19.1% reflects a large fixed-asset base.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

▼

ROIC fell to 19.14%, losing 3.1pp. That translates to 19.14 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. Both NOPAT margin narrowed 1.4pp and capital turnover fell 0.05x, while invested capital rose by 153bn — pressure came from both operational efficiency and asset efficiency.

For utilities, ROIC reflects returns on a large fixed-asset base — this is a reference signal and should be read alongside regulated tariffs.

Working Capital Efficiency

▲

Working capital is being managed more efficiently, supporting overall capital efficiency. Cash conversion cycle improved by 50.3 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO fell 0.2 days, DSO fell 45.6 days, and DPO rose 4.5 days.

All 3 drivers (collection, inventory, payables) are improving — working capital turnover is strengthening across the board.

For utilities, working capital cycle reflects regulated pricing mechanics and long-term settlement contracts — DSO/DIO/DPO should be treated as contextual signals rather than pure efficiency indicators.

Cash conversion cycle remains stretched

CCC stands at 93.6 days, suggesting that working capital remains tied up for a relatively long operating cycle.

DuPont

What drives ROE?

Net margin 45.4% -1.3pp
Asset turnover 0.37x -0.04x
Financial leverage 1.22x -0.06x
ROE 20.3% -4.2pp

ROE fell from 24.5% to 20.3% — all three components weakened, with asset turnover being the main drag.

03

Is financial risk significant?

Financial risk is low — leverage is safe, both CFO and FCF are positive.

Leverage & Liquidity

▲

Leverage looks fairly comfortable, with net debt / equity at 0.06x and interest coverage at 22.37x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 22.0% of total debt, cash equals 50.3% of debt, and total debt stands at 233.9bn.

Leverage for utilities reflects long-term capital needs for fixed assets and recovery through regulated pricing — elevated leverage is structural to the industry.

Net Debt / Equity
0.06x
+0.01x
Interest Coverage
22.37x
+1.48x
Cash / Debt
50.3%
−17.8pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt
22.0%
+3.8pp

TTM YoY · 2025Q2 -> 2026Q2

Balance Sheet

●

ROIC for utilities reflects a large fixed-asset base and regulated tariffs. Capital structure is conservative with low leverage — liabilities at 0.33x equity, net debt at 0.06x equity.

None

Over the last 12 months, working capital released 12.6bn of cash, mainly thanks to lower receivables and higher payables. Pressure from higher inventories only partly offset that benefit.

Research synthesis

What this reporting period is showing

The business is under real pressure, but the current picture has not turned broadly adverse. A notable area has clearly weakened, making the near-term outlook hard to call bright; even so, other parts of the business are still holding up, with some core pressures remaining the main constraint. The next watchpoint is capital efficiency, with ROIC at 19.1%. The main offsetting support comes from earnings conversion is confirmed, with CFO/NI at 1.02x.

  • Improvement: earnings conversion looks more confirmed, with CFO / net income at 1.02x.
  • Watchpoint: Capital efficiency needs cycle context.

Questions for the next period

  1. Whether revenue stabilizes after a −3,2% YoY decline or keeps falling.

  2. Whether margins hold around the current 45.42% level or narrow again.

  3. Whether operating cash flow holds its 514.8bn (cumulative for 2025) level in upcoming periods or weakens.

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