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iShareInvest Research

HOSE · Quý 3/2026

TCO

TCO Holdings

Analysis of business results & financial statements · Quý 3/2026

▼ Under pressure

Trailing net profit reached 29.7bn, fell 18.6bn compared with the same period last year. Key positives came from higher financial income and lower administrative expenses. Offsetting pressure came mainly from lower gross profit, higher finance costs, and weaker other profit. Detailed impact is shown below:

See what is changing ↓
P/E
10.76x
P/B
0.69x
EPS
948
BVPS
14,831
ROE
7.1%
ROA
2.5%
Market price
10,200
20 Oct 2026

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2026Q3 basis, TCO is showing a few mildly negative signals versus the same period, though nothing alarming at current levels — margins have been compressing consistently over multiple periods. More notably, operating cash flow is significantly negative relative to profit — this is pressure that needs close monitoring.

Profit bridge

Vs last year · TTM

  1. Financial income
  2. Administrative expenses
  3. Gross profit
  4. Finance costs
  5. Other profit
Unit: VND bn. Green bars support profit; red bars reduce profit.

A single data point, or a trajectory?

Latest eight quarters · Quý 3/2026

MetricQ3'26Q2'26Q1'26Q3'25Q2'25Q1'25Q4'24Q3'24
Revenue125.4507.859.3239.3395.2488.41,819.21,134.4
LNST16.29.40.23.85.433.24.35.1
Net margin12.96%1.86%0.29%1.59%1.36%6.80%0.24%0.45%

Revenue

125bn

Net income

16bn

Net margin

12.96%

A closer look at what is happening inside the business

A company's statements are read with the questions that fit its type of business.

01

Is the profit sustainable?

Accounting profit is positive but operating cash flow has not caught up — needs more time to confirm.

Revenue Growth

▼▼

Is growth real and durable?

Trailing-12-month revenue declined 68.3% year on year — not from a single spike: quarterly growth stepped up from −79% to −48%.

1 of the last 4 quarters grew year on year.

Revenue TTM
932bn
−68.3%
Latest quarter YoY
−48%
accelerating

What is driving the margin?

▲

Net margin expanded to 3.18%, rising 1.6pp. Core operating signals are improving as Gross margin rose 3.9pp are enough to offset pressure from SG&A / Revenue rose 1.6pp (in addition, Net financial result / Revenue rose 0.3pp added support while Other profit / Revenue fell 0.3pp remained a drag).

The improvement comes from core operations — this is a high-quality margin expansion.

Net Margin
3.18%
+1.6pp
Gross Margin
7.42%
+3.9pp
SG&A / Revenue
2.67%
+1.6pp

TTM YoY · 2025Q3 -> 2026Q3

Cash Flow

▼▼

Is profit converting into cash?

Leverage needs watching — cash flow shows the ability to service debt from operations. Operating cash flow reached 159.9bn against investing cash flow of -580.9bn (annual cash-flow figures for 2024).

Post-investment cash flow was negative +421.0bn. Financing cash flow was positive +446.4bn.

CFO / net income was −7,01 lần.

After spending +253.7bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −461.7bn.

Earnings Quality

▲

How much income is non-core?

About 92% of pre-tax profit comes from core operations.

Within that, net financial result at +3.4%, other profit at +4.3% of PBT.

Non-core / PBT
7.7%
low
Net financial / PBT
3.4%
Other profit / PBT
4.3%
02

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency should be read in industry context — ROIC may fluctuate with business specifics.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

●

Track how much operating profit the business generates on invested capital.

Industry characteristics make ROIC cyclical — this is a reference signal and should be read with the business context.

Working Capital Efficiency

▼

Cash conversion cycle lengthened by 14.9 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO rose 6.9 days, DSO rose 8.2 days, and DPO rose 0.1 days.

Working capital cycle lengthened mainly due to slower receivables collection — receivables quality needs monitoring.

Cash conversion cycle is lengthening

CCC is up by +14.9 days, indicating weaker working-capital turnover versus the prior year.

Receivables collection is slowing

DSO increased by +8.2 days, pointing to slower receivables turnover.

DuPont

What drives ROE?

Net margin 3.2% +1.6pp
Asset turnover 0.78x -1.15x
Financial leverage 2.86x -1.33x
ROE 7.1% -5.7pp

ROE fell from 12.8% to 7.1% — dragged by asset turnover and leverage together, though net margin still provided support.

03

Is financial risk significant?

Check leverage, liquidity, and cash-flow conversion.

Leverage & Liquidity

▼▼

Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 1.71x and interest coverage only at 0.74x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 33.3% of total debt, cash equals 0.3% of debt, and total debt stands at 796.4bn.

Net Debt / Equity
1.71x
+0.92x
Interest Coverage
0.74x
−0.53x
Cash / Debt
0.3%
−2.0pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt
33.3%
+30.2pp

TTM YoY · 2025Q3 -> 2026Q3

Net leverage is elevated

Net debt / equity stands at 1.71x, increasing balance-sheet pressure.

Interest coverage is thin

Interest coverage is 0.74x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.

Balance Sheet

▼▼

Leverage is very high, with clear pressure on the capital structure — liabilities at 4.80x equity, net debt at 1.71x equity.

None

Over the last 12 months, working capital absorbed 258.0bn of cash, mainly because of higher receivables and higher inventories.

Research synthesis

What this reporting period is showing

The business is showing a few weaker signals, but the current magnitude is not yet clear enough to conclude that this is a broader weakening phase. The brighter spot is operating efficiency, with net margin improving 1.6 pp. The next item to monitor is capital efficiency. The main risk still sits in leverage and liquidity, with interest coverage at 0.74x.

  • Improvement: operating efficiency is getting better, with trailing-12M net margin at 3.18% after expanding 1.6pp versus the same period last year.
  • Watchpoint: Capital efficiency needs cycle context.
  • Key risk: leverage and liquidity still require discipline, with interest coverage only at 0.74x.

Questions for the next period

  1. Whether revenue stabilizes after a −68,3% YoY decline or keeps falling.

  2. Whether margins hold around the current 3.18% level or narrow again.

  3. Whether operating cash flow holds its 159.9bn (cumulative for 2024) level in upcoming periods or weakens.

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