LTG

Tập đoàn Lộc Trời ·UPCOM ·2024Q1

▲▲ Improving positively

Cash generation is recovering CFO/NPAT −788 bn, +1250 bn YoY
Price
5,600
Latest close
29 May 2026
P/E 2.47x
P/B 0.19x
EPS 2,264
BVPS 29,520
ROE 8.3%
ROA 2.2%
Profit Margin 1.4%
Asset Turnover 1.56x
Equity Mult. 3.78x

TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2024Q1 basis, LTG is growing strongly on the back of scale expansion, while margins have only improved slightly — profit is at an all-time high. However, operating cash flow is significantly negative relative to profit — this needs monitoring in coming periods.

TTM REVENUE
VND 17,808bn
+50.9%YoY
NET MARGIN
1.40%
+0.2ppYoY
TTM NET PROFIT
VND 250bn
+72.5%YoY
CFO / Net Income
-2.67x
negative cash flow vs profit
Metric Q1'24 Q4'23 Q3'23 Q2'23 Q1'23 Q4'22 Q3'22 Q2'22 Q1'22 Q4'21 Q3'21 Q2'21
Revenue 3,848.7 5,819.8 4,461.1 3,678.0 2,452.2 3,062.0 2,736.1 3,547.3 2,345.3 3,110.1 1,992.4 2,724.9
Growth -34% +30% +21% +50% -20% +12% -23% +51% -25% +56% -27%
Net Income -95.3 247.8 -327.1 424.7 -81.2 208.8 63.8 -46.3 184.0 159.7 31.2 47.3
Net Margin -2.48% 4.26% -7.33% 11.55% -3.31% 6.82% 2.33% -1.31% 7.85% 5.14% 1.57% 1.74%

Drivers of LTG's profit

TTM

Net profit attributable to parent increased vs last year, mainly helped by higher gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Gross profit ↑ 578.4bn
Associates income ↑ 332.3bn
Other profit ↑ 61.4bn
Finance costs ↑ 399.8bn
Administrative expenses ↑ 296.2bn
Selling expenses ↑ 98.8bn
TTM

Net profit attributable to parent declined vs prior quarter, mainly due to higher finance costs. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Other profit ↑ 45.5bn
Associates income ↑ 19.2bn
Selling expenses ↓ 14.8bn
Administrative expenses ↓ 9.3bn
Finance costs ↑ 41.6bn
Financial income ↓ 28.8bn

Financial Highlights

Detailed analysis of each financial dimension

ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

2023Q1 4.6% = 1.2% × 1.22 × 3.09
2024Q1 8.3% = 1.4% × 1.56 × 3.78

ROE rose from 4.6% to 8.3% — all three components improved, with leverage contributing the most.

Net margin: 1.4% +0.2pp Asset turnover: 1.56x +0.34x Leverage: 3.78x +0.69x

Is the profit sustainable?

Accounting profit is positive but operating cash flow has not caught up — needs more time to confirm.

very positive positive stable watch under pressure

What is driving the margin?

Net margin stands at 1.40%, broadly flat versus the same period. Supportive factors and pressure points are offsetting one another.

Margin is nearly flat but the underlying components are moving — this is a transitional phase, more time is needed to see the real trend.

Profitability trend

Net Margin 1.40% +0.2pp
Gross Margin 13.74% −2.1pp
SG&A / Revenue 9.39% −1.4pp

TTM YoY · 2023Q1 -> 2024Q1

Is capital being used efficiently?

Evaluate capital, asset, and working-capital efficiency.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

ROIC edged up to 2.25%, rising 0.4pp. That translates to 2.25 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. The main driver is capital turnover rose 0.40x — the business is generating more revenue per unit of capital, with NOPAT margin steady; while invested capital rose by 1,500bn.

Capital turnover improved — a positive signal on asset efficiency, but with ROIC still low, NOPAT margin also needs to lift in coming periods to produce meaningful returns.

Watchpoints

ROIC remains low

ROIC is currently 2.25% — below the typical cost-of-capital threshold; worth tracking whether upcoming periods can rise above this level.

CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND

TTM YoY · 2023Q1 -> 2024Q1

ROIC 2.25% +0.4pp
NOPAT Margin 1.15% −0.0pp
Capital Turnover 1.96x +0.40x
Average Invested Capital 9,094.3bn +1,500.4bn

Balance Sheet

Leverage is very high, with clear pressure on the capital structure — liabilities at 2.74x equity, net debt at 2.09x equity.

Inventory ended the period at 1,969.4bn, roughly 17.2% of total assets.

Over the last 12 months, working capital absorbed 1,085.1bn of cash, mainly because of higher receivables and higher inventories. Part of that drag was offset by higher payables.

Working Capital Drivers

TTM YoY · 2023Q1 -> 2024Q1

Receivables increased → lower CFO: −1,934.2bn
Inventories increased → lower CFO: −98.9bn
Payables increased → higher CFO: +947.9bn

Working Capital Efficiency

Working capital is being managed more efficiently, supporting overall capital efficiency. Cash conversion cycle improved by 18.6 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO fell 34.9 days, DSO rose 26.0 days, and DPO rose 9.7 days.

Improvement comes mainly from faster inventory turnover — watch whether this trend persists in coming periods.

Watchpoints

Cash conversion cycle remains stretched

CCC stands at 141.9 days, suggesting that working capital remains tied up for a relatively long operating cycle.

Receivables collection is slowing

DSO increased by +26.0 days, pointing to slower receivables turnover.

Working Capital Efficiency

TTM YoY · 2023Q1 -> 2024Q1

Receivables 108.1 days +26.0 days
Inventory 66.4 days −34.9 days
Payables 32.6 days +9.7 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 141.9 days −18.6 days

Is financial risk significant?

High leverage combined with negative operating cash flow — this area needs close monitoring.

Leverage & Liquidity

Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 2.09x and interest coverage only at 0.31x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 98.7% of total debt, cash equals 1.7% of debt, and total debt stands at 6,327.2bn.

Watchpoints

Net leverage is elevated

Net debt / equity stands at 2.09x, increasing balance-sheet pressure.

Interest coverage is thin

Interest coverage is 0.31x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.

Leverage and liquidity trend

Net Debt / Equity 2.09x +0.16x
Interest Coverage 0.31x −0.08x
Cash / Debt 1.7% −4.9pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt 98.7% +0.1pp
CFO / NI -2.67x +9.43x

TTM YoY · 2023Q1 -> 2024Q1

Cash Flow

High leverage combined with cash flow below reveals the actual liquidity pressure. Operating cash flow reached -2,942.3bn in 2023, against investing cash flow of 234.0bn.

Post-investment cash flow was negative +2,708.2bn. Financing cash flow was positive +2,395.6bn.

CFO / net income was -2.67x.

After spending +121.4bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −788.0bn.

Cash Conversion

TTM Cash Conversion · 2023Q1 -> 2024Q1

CFO TTM 666.6bn +1,112.8bn
Cash Capex 121.4bn −137.7bn
FCF TTM −788.0bn +1,250.5bn

Investment Takeaway

The business is showing a few weaker signals, but the current magnitude is not yet clear enough to conclude that this is a broader weakening phase. The brighter spot is cash generation. The next item to monitor is the earnings mix, when non-core contribution is 18.1%. The main risk still sits in capital efficiency remains weak, with ROIC at 2.3%.

Improvement: cash generation is recovering, with trailing-12M FCF improving by 1,250.5bn versus the same period last year.

Watchpoint: the earnings mix still needs monitoring, with net financial result still accounting for 18.1% of PBT and CFO / net income currently at -2.67x.

Key risk: Capital efficiency remains weak.

Statement Data

Item 2023 2022 2021 2020
Net Revenue
16,088.1 11,690.6 10,224.1 7,505.8
Cost of Goods Sold
13,612.7 9,542.1 0.0 0.0
Gross Profit
2,475.4 2,148.5 1,962.7 1,659.7
Financial Expenses
960.1 492.2 -352.0 -215.9
Selling Expenses
977.8 885.1 -856.2 -671.7
General and Administrative Expenses
641.1 397.6 -359.5 -360.4
Operating Profit
124.2 535.5 454.3 436.8
Profit Before Tax
149.9 557.6 531.6 452.6
Net Income
16.5 411.6 421.9 368.9
Profit Attributable to Parent
16.9 412.4 421.3 365.9
Earnings per Share
143.00 4,350.00 4,444.00 3,859.00

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