LTG
Tập đoàn Lộc Trời ·UPCOM ·2024Q1
▲▲ Improving positively
TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity
What Is Changing
On a TTM 2024Q1 basis, LTG is growing strongly on the back of scale expansion, while margins have only improved slightly — profit is at an all-time high. However, operating cash flow is significantly negative relative to profit — this needs monitoring in coming periods.
| Metric | Q1'24 | Q4'23 | Q3'23 | Q2'23 | Q1'23 | Q4'22 | Q3'22 | Q2'22 | Q1'22 | Q4'21 | Q3'21 | Q2'21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,848.7 | 5,819.8 | 4,461.1 | 3,678.0 | 2,452.2 | 3,062.0 | 2,736.1 | 3,547.3 | 2,345.3 | 3,110.1 | 1,992.4 | 2,724.9 |
| Growth | -34% | +30% | +21% | +50% | -20% | +12% | -23% | +51% | -25% | +56% | -27% | — |
| Net Income | -95.3 | 247.8 | -327.1 | 424.7 | -81.2 | 208.8 | 63.8 | -46.3 | 184.0 | 159.7 | 31.2 | 47.3 |
| Net Margin | -2.48% | 4.26% | -7.33% | 11.55% | -3.31% | 6.82% | 2.33% | -1.31% | 7.85% | 5.14% | 1.57% | 1.74% |
Drivers of LTG's profit
Net profit attributable to parent increased vs last year, mainly helped by higher gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Net profit attributable to parent declined vs prior quarter, mainly due to higher finance costs. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Financial Highlights
Detailed analysis of each financial dimension
ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier
ROE rose from 4.6% to 8.3% — all three components improved, with leverage contributing the most.
Is the profit sustainable?
Accounting profit is positive but operating cash flow has not caught up — needs more time to confirm.
What is driving the margin?
Net margin stands at 1.40%, broadly flat versus the same period. Supportive factors and pressure points are offsetting one another.
Margin is nearly flat but the underlying components are moving — this is a transitional phase, more time is needed to see the real trend.
Profitability trend
TTM YoY · 2023Q1 -> 2024Q1
Is capital being used efficiently?
Evaluate capital, asset, and working-capital efficiency.
Is capital being deployed efficiently?
ROIC edged up to 2.25%, rising 0.4pp. That translates to 2.25 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. The main driver is capital turnover rose 0.40x — the business is generating more revenue per unit of capital, with NOPAT margin steady; while invested capital rose by 1,500bn.
Capital turnover improved — a positive signal on asset efficiency, but with ROIC still low, NOPAT margin also needs to lift in coming periods to produce meaningful returns.
Watchpoints
ROIC is currently 2.25% — below the typical cost-of-capital threshold; worth tracking whether upcoming periods can rise above this level.
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND
TTM YoY · 2023Q1 -> 2024Q1
Balance Sheet
Leverage is very high, with clear pressure on the capital structure — liabilities at 2.74x equity, net debt at 2.09x equity.
Inventory ended the period at 1,969.4bn, roughly 17.2% of total assets.
Over the last 12 months, working capital absorbed 1,085.1bn of cash, mainly because of higher receivables and higher inventories. Part of that drag was offset by higher payables.
Working Capital Drivers
TTM YoY · 2023Q1 -> 2024Q1
Working Capital Efficiency
Working capital is being managed more efficiently, supporting overall capital efficiency. Cash conversion cycle improved by 18.6 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO fell 34.9 days, DSO rose 26.0 days, and DPO rose 9.7 days.
Improvement comes mainly from faster inventory turnover — watch whether this trend persists in coming periods.
Watchpoints
CCC stands at 141.9 days, suggesting that working capital remains tied up for a relatively long operating cycle.
DSO increased by +26.0 days, pointing to slower receivables turnover.
Working Capital Efficiency
TTM YoY · 2023Q1 -> 2024Q1
Is financial risk significant?
High leverage combined with negative operating cash flow — this area needs close monitoring.
Leverage & Liquidity
Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 2.09x and interest coverage only at 0.31x.
At present, short-term debt accounts for 98.7% of total debt, cash equals 1.7% of debt, and total debt stands at 6,327.2bn.
Watchpoints
Net debt / equity stands at 2.09x, increasing balance-sheet pressure.
Interest coverage is 0.31x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.
Leverage and liquidity trend
TTM YoY · 2023Q1 -> 2024Q1
Cash Flow
High leverage combined with cash flow below reveals the actual liquidity pressure. Operating cash flow reached -2,942.3bn in 2023, against investing cash flow of 234.0bn.
Post-investment cash flow was negative +2,708.2bn. Financing cash flow was positive +2,395.6bn.
CFO / net income was -2.67x.
After spending +121.4bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −788.0bn.
Cash Conversion
TTM Cash Conversion · 2023Q1 -> 2024Q1
Investment Takeaway
The business is showing a few weaker signals, but the current magnitude is not yet clear enough to conclude that this is a broader weakening phase. The brighter spot is cash generation. The next item to monitor is the earnings mix, when non-core contribution is 18.1%. The main risk still sits in capital efficiency remains weak, with ROIC at 2.3%.
Improvement: cash generation is recovering, with trailing-12M FCF improving by 1,250.5bn versus the same period last year.
Watchpoint: the earnings mix still needs monitoring, with net financial result still accounting for 18.1% of PBT and CFO / net income currently at -2.67x.
Key risk: Capital efficiency remains weak.
Statement Data
| Item | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net Revenue
|
16,088.1 | 11,690.6 | 10,224.1 | 7,505.8 |
|
Cost of Goods Sold
|
13,612.7 | 9,542.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|
Gross Profit
|
2,475.4 | 2,148.5 | 1,962.7 | 1,659.7 |
|
Financial Expenses
|
960.1 | 492.2 | -352.0 | -215.9 |
|
Selling Expenses
|
977.8 | 885.1 | -856.2 | -671.7 |
|
General and Administrative Expenses
|
641.1 | 397.6 | -359.5 | -360.4 |
|
Operating Profit
|
124.2 | 535.5 | 454.3 | 436.8 |
|
Profit Before Tax
|
149.9 | 557.6 | 531.6 | 452.6 |
|
Net Income
|
16.5 | 411.6 | 421.9 | 368.9 |
|
Profit Attributable to Parent
|
16.9 | 412.4 | 421.3 | 365.9 |
|
Earnings per Share
|
143.00 | 4,350.00 | 4,444.00 | 3,859.00 |
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