CFV
Cà phê Thắng Lợi ·UPCOM ·2026Q1
▼▼ Declining sharply
TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity
What Is Changing
On a TTM 2026Q1 basis, CFV is holding revenue at an acceptable level, but margins are eroding visibly — profit momentum has been slowing across consecutive periods. More notably, operating cash flow is significantly negative relative to profit — this is pressure that needs close monitoring.
| Metric | Q1'26 | Q4'25 | Q3'25 | Q2'25 | Q1'25 | Q4'24 | Q3'24 | Q2'24 | Q1'24 | Q4'23 | Q3'23 | Q2'23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 116.9 | 76.2 | 22.3 | 191.5 | 90.1 | 21.6 | 7.1 | 99.5 | 165.4 | 74.5 | 84.9 | 181.9 |
| Growth | +53% | +242% | -88% | +113% | +316% | +203% | -93% | -40% | +122% | -12% | -53% | — |
| Net Income | 1.4 | 15.0 | -2.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 15.2 | 2.9 | 18.9 | 10.0 | 2.2 | -1.8 | 1.1 |
| Net Margin | 1.18% | 19.66% | -12.15% | 0.30% | 0.69% | 70.47% | 41.03% | 18.99% | 6.05% | 3.00% | -2.13% | 0.62% |
Drivers of CFV's profit
Net profit attributable to parent declined vs last year, mainly due to higher finance costs. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Net profit attributable to parent increased vs prior quarter, mainly helped by higher gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Financial Highlights
Detailed analysis of each financial dimension
ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier
ROE fell from 22.5% to 7.3% — net margin weakened the most, though asset turnover and leverage still provided support.
Is the profit sustainable?
Margins narrowed but earnings quality remains clean — pressure is mainly operational.
What is driving the margin?
Net margin fell to 3.50%, losing 13.8pp. The main pressure is Gross margin fell 13.2pp, outweighing the improvement in SG&A / Revenue fell 2.0pp (with lingering pressure from Net financial result / Revenue fell 3.5pp and Other profit / Revenue fell 2.6pp).
Margin is under pressure from multiple sides — temporary and structural components need to be separated to properly assess the risk.
Profitability trend
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Is capital being used efficiently?
Capital efficiency should be read in industry context — ROIC may fluctuate with business specifics.
Is capital being deployed efficiently?
Track how much operating profit the business generates on invested capital.
Industry characteristics make ROIC cyclical — this is a reference signal and should be read with the business context.
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Balance Sheet
ROIC above should be read with industry context — the balance sheet below adds perspective. Capital structure is balanced — liabilities at 0.71x equity, net debt at 0.95x equity.
Inventory ended the period at 103.7bn, roughly 29.8% of total assets.
Over the last 12 months, working capital released 0.0bn of cash.
Working Capital Drivers
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Working Capital Efficiency
Working capital is being managed more efficiently, supporting overall capital efficiency. Cash conversion cycle improved by 135.6 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO fell 126.1 days, DSO fell 10.9 days, and DPO fell 1.5 days.
Improvement comes mainly from faster inventory turnover — watch whether this trend persists in coming periods.
Watchpoints
CCC stands at 222.4 days, suggesting that working capital remains tied up for a relatively long operating cycle.
Working Capital Efficiency
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Is financial risk significant?
Leverage is safe but FCF is negative at 209.5bn due to capex of 23.8bn — an investment choice, not an urgent risk.
Leverage & Liquidity
Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 0.95x and interest coverage only at 1.72x.
At present, short-term debt accounts for 91.1% of total debt, cash equals 0.1% of debt, and total debt stands at 194.3bn.
Watchpoints
Interest coverage is 1.72x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.
Short-term debt accounts for 91.1% of total debt, raising near-term refinancing needs.
Leverage and liquidity trend
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow reached -105.2bn in 2025, against investing cash flow of 13.0bn.
Post-investment cash flow was negative +92.2bn. Financing cash flow was positive +92.2bn.
CFO / net income was -13.05x.
After spending +23.8bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −209.5bn.
Cash Conversion
TTM Cash Conversion · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Investment Takeaway
The business is showing a few weaker signals, but the current magnitude is not yet clear enough to conclude that this is a broader weakening phase. The next item to monitor is the earnings mix, when non-core contribution is 17.2%. The main risk still sits in core profitability, with net margin down 13.8 pp.
Watchpoint: the earnings mix still needs monitoring, with net financial result still accounting for 17.2% of PBT and CFO / net income currently at -13.05x.
Key risk: profitability remains under pressure, with trailing-12M net margin at 3.50% after a 13.8pp decline versus the same period last year.
Statement Data
| Item | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net Revenue
|
380.1 | 293.7 | 456.0 | 450.7 | 352.0 |
|
Cost of Goods Sold
|
341.1 | 224.7 | 434.2 | 432.6 | 0.0 |
|
Gross Profit
|
39.0 | 68.9 | 21.8 | 18.1 | 33.4 |
|
Financial Expenses
|
10.3 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 4.0 | -3.0 |
|
Selling Expenses
|
6.8 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 8.5 | -13.1 |
|
General and Administrative Expenses
|
9.9 | 8.9 | 12.7 | 13.2 | -16.3 |
|
Operating Profit
|
19.9 | 56.3 | 2.1 | -1.2 | 6.3 |
|
Profit Before Tax
|
22.0 | 59.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 7.8 |
|
Net Income
|
17.3 | 47.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 6.1 |
|
Profit Attributable to Parent
|
17.3 | 47.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 6.1 |
|
Earnings per Share
|
1,370.00 | 3,718.00 | 279.00 | 105.00 | 483.67 |
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