BAF
Nông nghiệp BAF Việt Nam ·HOSE ·2026Q1
▼▼ Declining sharply
TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity
What Is Changing
On a TTM 2026Q1 basis, BAF posted a very sharp profit drop versus the same period, showing that pressure has clearly fed through to the bottom line — profit momentum has been slowing across consecutive periods. More notably, operating cash flow is significantly negative relative to profit — this is pressure that needs close monitoring.
| Metric | Q1'26 | Q4'25 | Q3'25 | Q2'25 | Q1'25 | Q4'24 | Q3'24 | Q2'24 | Q1'24 | Q4'23 | Q3'23 | Q2'23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,762.2 | 1,399.2 | 1,136.3 | 1,387.3 | 1,123.6 | 1,626.7 | 1,313.8 | 1,226.0 | 1,292.0 | 1,625.0 | 1,219.0 | 1,638.3 |
| Growth | +26% | +23% | -18% | +23% | -31% | +24% | +7% | -5% | -20% | +33% | -26% | — |
| Net Income | 206.2 | -264.9 | 22.5 | 196.2 | 133.5 | 109.2 | 60.0 | 35.2 | 118.7 | -29.5 | 40.1 | 12.2 |
| Net Margin | 11.70% | -18.93% | 1.98% | 14.14% | 11.89% | 6.72% | 4.57% | 2.87% | 9.18% | -1.81% | 3.29% | 0.74% |
Drivers of BAF's profit
Net profit attributable to parent declined vs last year, mainly due to higher administrative expenses. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Net profit attributable to parent increased vs prior quarter, mainly helped by higher gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Financial Highlights
Detailed analysis of each financial dimension
ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier
ROE fell from 13.3% to 4.4% — all three components weakened, with leverage being the main drag.
Is the profit sustainable?
Margins narrowed but earnings quality remains clean — pressure is mainly operational.
What is driving the margin?
Net margin fell to 2.81%, losing 3.6pp. The main pressure is SG&A / Revenue rose 3.1pp, outweighing the improvement in Gross margin rose 0.4pp (with lingering pressure from Net financial result / Revenue fell 1.1pp and Other profit / Revenue fell 0.7pp).
Margin is under pressure from multiple sides — temporary and structural components need to be separated to properly assess the risk.
Profitability trend
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Is capital being used efficiently?
Capital efficiency is declining — check whether the drag is from margins or turnover.
Is capital being deployed efficiently?
ROIC fell to 2.07%, losing 5.0pp. That translates to 2.07 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. Both NOPAT margin narrowed 3.2pp and capital turnover fell 0.42x, while invested capital expanded strongly by 2,581bn — pressure came from both operational efficiency and asset efficiency.
Both margin and turnover weakened — this is a broad-based decline, and cyclical versus structural components need to be separated.
Watchpoints
ROIC is currently 2.07% — below the typical cost-of-capital threshold; worth tracking whether upcoming periods can rise above this level.
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Balance Sheet
ROIC declined — the balance sheet shows how capital is being deployed. Leverage is elevated, requiring monitoring — liabilities at 1.65x equity, net debt at 1.15x equity.
Inventory ended the period at 2,725.6bn, roughly 25.3% of total assets.
Over the last 12 months, working capital absorbed 2,684.9bn of cash, mainly because of higher receivables and higher inventories.
Working Capital Drivers
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Working Capital Efficiency
Working capital is being managed more efficiently, supporting overall capital efficiency. Cash conversion cycle improved by 28.3 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO fell 18.2 days, DSO fell 13.6 days, and DPO fell 3.6 days.
Improvement comes mainly from faster inventory turnover — watch whether this trend persists in coming periods.
Working Capital Efficiency
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Is financial risk significant?
Leverage is safe but FCF is negative at 4,422.0bn due to capex of 1,880.7bn — an investment choice, not an urgent risk.
Leverage & Liquidity
Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 1.15x and interest coverage only at 0.48x.
At present, short-term debt accounts for 39.6% of total debt, cash equals 2.8% of debt, and total debt stands at 5,039.6bn.
Watchpoints
Net debt / equity stands at 1.15x, increasing balance-sheet pressure.
Interest coverage is 0.48x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.
Leverage and liquidity trend
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Cash Flow
High leverage combined with cash flow below reveals the actual liquidity pressure. Operating cash flow reached -1,379.7bn in 2025, against investing cash flow of -1,464.1bn.
Post-investment cash flow was negative +2,843.8bn. Financing cash flow was positive +3,059.9bn.
CFO / net income was -16.25x.
After spending +1,880.7bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −4,422.0bn.
Cash Conversion
TTM Cash Conversion · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Investment Takeaway
The business is showing a few weaker signals, but the current magnitude is not yet clear enough to conclude that this is a broader weakening phase. The brighter spot is earnings conversion is confirmed, with CFO/NI at -16.25x. The main risk still sits in core profitability, with net margin down 3.6 pp.
Improvement: earnings conversion looks more confirmed, with CFO / net income at -16.25x.
Key risk: profitability remains under pressure, with trailing-12M net margin at 2.81% after a 3.6pp decline versus the same period last year.
Statement Data
| Item | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net Revenue
|
5,037.9 | 5,640.7 | 5,198.8 | 7,083.4 | 10,413.6 |
|
Cost of Goods Sold
|
4,356.0 | 4,924.4 | 4,855.5 | 6,558.0 | 0.0 |
|
Gross Profit
|
681.9 | 716.3 | 343.3 | 525.4 | 488.3 |
|
Financial Expenses
|
290.6 | 222.2 | 155.4 | 31.2 | -32.1 |
|
Selling Expenses
|
85.1 | 76.6 | 93.2 | 72.2 | -15.7 |
|
General and Administrative Expenses
|
241.0 | 137.3 | 99.5 | 87.6 | -55.0 |
|
Operating Profit
|
86.7 | 302.4 | 33.1 | 343.5 | 390.1 |
|
Profit Before Tax
|
99.8 | 406.2 | 24.5 | 338.9 | 390.5 |
|
Net Income
|
127.1 | 318.9 | 30.3 | 287.8 | 321.8 |
|
Profit Attributable to Parent
|
126.6 | 317.0 | 26.4 | 286.7 | 321.8 |
|
Earnings per Share
|
499.00 | 1,556.00 | 184.00 | 2,592.00 | 4,125.18 |
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