MHL
Minh Hữu Liên ·UPCOM ·2024Q2
▼▼ Declining sharply
TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity
What Is Changing
On a TTM 2024Q2 basis, MHL posted a very sharp profit drop versus the same period, showing that pressure has clearly fed through to the bottom line — margins have been compressing consistently over multiple periods. More notably, operating cash flow is significantly negative relative to profit — this is pressure that needs close monitoring.
| Metric | Q2'24 | Q1'24 | Q4'23 | Q3'23 | Q2'23 | Q1'23 | Q4'22 | Q3'22 | Q2'22 | Q1'22 | Q4'21 | Q2'21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.6 | 73.1 | 221.6 | 93.1 | 93.1 | 94.8 |
| Growth | — | — | -100% | — | — | -100% | -70% | -67% | +138% | 0% | -2% | — |
| Net Income | -3.5 | -1.8 | -0.1 | 0.7 | -0.2 | -1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 26.0 | -5.2 | -5.2 | 0.1 |
| Net Margin | — | — | — | 2.17% | — | — | 6.01% | 1.04% | 11.73% | -5.61% | -5.61% | 0.12% |
Drivers of MHL's profit
Net profit attributable to parent declined vs last year, mainly due to lower gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Net profit attributable to parent declined vs prior quarter, mainly due to lower gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Financial Highlights
Detailed analysis of each financial dimension
ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier
ROE fell from 1.2% to -16.3% — asset turnover weakened the most, though leverage still provided support.
Is the profit sustainable?
Margins narrowed but earnings quality remains clean — pressure is mainly operational.
What is driving the margin?
Net margin fell to -14.80%, losing 15.5pp. The main pressure is Gross margin fell 25.4pp, outweighing the improvement in SG&A / Revenue fell 6.3pp (in addition, Net financial result / Revenue rose 3.8pp added support while Other profit / Revenue fell 0.2pp remained a drag).
The pressure comes from core operations — this is a concerning type of decline, not a one-off movement.
Profitability trend
TTM YoY · 2023Q2 -> 2024Q2
Is capital being used efficiently?
Capital efficiency is declining — check whether the drag is from margins or turnover.
Is capital being deployed efficiently?
ROIC fell to -3.91%, losing 4.2pp. That translates to -3.91 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. Both NOPAT margin narrowed 15.3pp and capital turnover fell 0.35x, with invested capital holding roughly steady — pressure came from both operational efficiency and asset efficiency.
Pressure came from the margin side — core operations are weakening, not just a temporary asset-management issue.
Watchpoints
ROIC is currently -3.91% — below the typical cost-of-capital threshold; worth tracking whether upcoming periods can rise above this level.
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND
TTM YoY · 2023Q2 -> 2024Q2
Balance Sheet
ROIC declined — the balance sheet shows how capital is being deployed. Leverage is very high, with clear pressure on the capital structure — liabilities at 8.26x equity, net debt at 10.16x equity.
Over the last 12 months, working capital released 66.6bn of cash, mainly thanks to lower receivables and higher payables.
Working Capital Drivers
TTM YoY · 2023Q2 -> 2024Q2
Working Capital Efficiency
Cash conversion cycle lengthened by 40.3 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO rose 37.1 days, DSO fell 33.0 days, and DPO fell 36.3 days.
Working capital cycle lengthened mainly due to slower inventory turnover — more capital is being tied up in inventory.
Watchpoints
CCC stands at 293.7 days, suggesting that working capital remains tied up for a relatively long operating cycle.
DIO increased by +37.1 days, suggesting more capital is being tied up in inventories.
Working Capital Efficiency
TTM YoY · 2023Q2 -> 2024Q2
Is financial risk significant?
High leverage combined with negative operating cash flow — this area needs close monitoring.
Leverage & Liquidity
Track net leverage, interest coverage, and the liquidity buffer on the balance sheet.
At present, short-term debt accounts for 68.6% of total debt, cash equals 0.1% of debt, and total debt stands at 82.4bn.
Watchpoints
Net debt / equity stands at 10.16x, increasing balance-sheet pressure.
Short-term debt accounts for 68.6% of total debt, raising near-term refinancing needs.
Leverage and liquidity trend
TTM YoY · 2023Q2 -> 2024Q2
Cash Flow
High leverage combined with cash flow below reveals the actual liquidity pressure. Operating cash flow reached -0.9bn in 2023, against investing cash flow of 0.0bn.
Post-investment cash flow was negative +0.9bn. Financing cash flow was negative +1.2bn.
CFO / net income was -14.23x.
After spending +66.7bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of +0.0bn.
Cash Conversion
TTM Cash Conversion · 2023Q2 -> 2024Q2
Investment Takeaway
The business is showing a few weaker signals, but the current magnitude is not yet clear enough to conclude that this is a broader weakening phase. The next item to monitor is effective tax rate looks unusual, with effective tax rate at 0.0%. The main risk still sits in core profitability, with net margin down 15.5 pp.
Watchpoint: the effective tax rate looks unusual, so current net profit may not fully reflect underlying earnings quality.
Key risk: profitability remains under pressure, with trailing-12M net margin at -14.80% after a 15.5pp decline versus the same period last year.
Statement Data
| Item | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net Revenue
|
29.9 | 409.2 | 246.1 | 430.2 |
|
Cost of Goods Sold
|
30.2 | 353.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|
Gross Profit
|
-0.3 | 55.5 | 19.7 | 40.1 |
|
Financial Expenses
|
11.1 | 8.3 | -7.1 | -10.9 |
|
Selling Expenses
|
0.4 | 14.5 | -16.1 | -20.3 |
|
General and Administrative Expenses
|
16.5 | 11.8 | -6.2 | -8.7 |
|
Operating Profit
|
-28.2 | 22.1 | -8.9 | 0.9 |
|
Profit Before Tax
|
-35.4 | 22.6 | -3.4 | 1.7 |
|
Net Income
|
-40.8 | 22.6 | -5.3 | 1.0 |
|
Profit Attributable to Parent
|
-40.8 | 22.6 | -5.3 | 1.0 |
|
Earnings per Share
|
-7,723.00 | 4,273.00 | -976.65 | 21.00 |
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