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iShareInvest Research

UPCOM · Quý 4/2020

HLA

Hữu Liên Á Châu

Analysis of business results & financial statements · Quý 4/2020

P/E
—
P/B
—
EPS
-3,928
BVPS
-46,964
ROE
—
ROA
—
Market price
—

A single data point, or a trajectory?

Latest eight quarters · Quý 4/2020

MetricQ4'20Q3'20Q2'20Q1'20
Revenue1.31.11.62.9
LNST-33.8-36.3-27.0-38.3
Net margin-2664.89%-3294.88%-1676.06%-1302.69%

Revenue

1bn

Net income

-34bn

Net margin

-2664.89%

A closer look at what is happening inside the business

A company's statements are read with the questions that fit its type of business.

01

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins are broadly flat — earnings quality is the factor to watch.

What is driving the margin?

●

Track net margin changes and the operating components against the same period last year.

None

Net Margin
−1956.45%
Gross Margin
−12.48%
SG&A / Revenue
−124.22%

Cash Flow

▼

Is profit converting into cash?

Operating cash flow reached -0.4bn against investing cash flow of 2.8bn (annual cash-flow figures for 2020).

Post-investment cash flow was positive +2.4bn. Financing cash flow was negative +2.2bn.

CFO / net income was 0,00 lần.

After spending 0.0bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −0.4bn.

Earnings Quality

▲

How much income is non-core?

About 93% of pre-tax profit comes from core operations.

Within that, net financial result at −86.6%, other profit at +7.1% of PBT.

Non-core / PBT
7.1%
low
Net financial / PBT
−86.6%
Other profit / PBT
7.1%
02

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency should be read in industry context — ROIC may fluctuate with business specifics.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

●

Track how much operating profit the business generates on invested capital.

Industry characteristics make ROIC cyclical — this is a reference signal and should be read with the business context.

Working Capital Efficiency

●

Track receivable, inventory, and payable turns to judge working-capital efficiency.

Track DSO, DIO, DPO components to evaluate working capital turnover efficiency.

03

Is financial risk significant?

Leverage is safe but FCF is negative at 0.4bn due to capex of 0.0bn — an investment choice, not an urgent risk.

Leverage & Liquidity

▼

Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at −0.42x and interest coverage only at −1.08x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, cash equals 0.2% of debt, and total debt stands at 676.1bn.

Net Debt / Equity
−0.42x
Interest Coverage
−1.08x
Cash / Debt
0.2%
Short-term Debt / Total Debt
100.0%
Interest coverage is thin

Interest coverage is −1.08x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.

Short-term refinancing pressure is meaningful

Short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, raising near-term refinancing needs.

Balance Sheet

●

Balance sheet is exceptionally sound — liabilities at -1.14x equity, with a net cash position equivalent to 0.42x equity.

None

Over the last 12 months, working capital released 0.0bn of cash.

Research synthesis

What this reporting period is showing

The business is balanced but not yet fully stable — some components are moving the right way while others still need monitoring. This is a state to keep watching, with not enough signal to tilt the thesis either way. The next item to monitor is effective tax rate looks unusual, with effective tax rate at 0.0%. The main risk still sits in leverage and liquidity, with interest coverage at −1.08x.

  • Watchpoint: the effective tax rate looks unusual, so current net profit may not fully reflect underlying earnings quality.
  • Key risk: leverage and liquidity still require discipline, with interest coverage only at −1.08x.

Questions for the next period

  1. Whether revenue growth holds into the next cycle or stalls.

  2. Whether margins hold around the current -1956.45% level or narrow again.

  3. Whether operating cash flow holds its -0.4bn (cumulative for 2020) level in upcoming periods or weakens.

From one stock to the whole portfolio

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among the rest of your investments?

Each stock is only one part of the wider picture. Looking at investments side by side makes their contribution, risks and opportunities across the portfolio clearer.

How much does this stock
contribute to the portfolio?

Its weight and influence across the assets held for investment.

Is the portfolio
well balanced?

How holdings, sectors and asset groups are distributed in relation to overall risk.

What other opportunities
or risks may be present?

What becomes visible only when investments are viewed together rather than one ticker at a time.

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