MEL
Thép Mê Lin ·HNX ·2026Q1
▼ Slightly negative
TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity
What Is Changing
On a TTM 2026Q1 basis, MEL has not moved the needle on revenue, but profitability has edged up slightly — earnings have been recovering gradually over multiple periods. More notably, profit is significantly supported by non-core sources and operating cash flow is not yet positive — the earnings quality picture needs close monitoring.
| Metric | Q1'26 | Q4'25 | Q3'25 | Q2'25 | Q1'25 | Q4'24 | Q3'24 | Q2'24 | Q1'24 | Q4'23 | Q3'23 | Q2'23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 236.3 | 232.1 | 227.5 | 161.4 | 216.2 | 283.4 | 268.0 | 158.1 | 170.4 | 177.3 | 183.6 | 179.8 |
| Growth | +2% | +2% | +41% | -25% | -24% | +6% | +70% | -7% | -4% | -3% | +2% | — |
| Net Income | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 6.5 | 1.1 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Net Margin | 1.01% | 0.74% | 0.13% | 4.03% | 0.51% | 1.43% | 0.36% | 1.21% | 0.90% | 0.27% | 0.49% | 0.61% |
Drivers of MEL's profit
Net profit attributable to parent increased vs last year, mainly helped by higher gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Net profit attributable to parent increased vs prior quarter, mainly helped by higher gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Financial Highlights
Detailed analysis of each financial dimension
ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier
ROE rose from 3.1% to 4.1% — mainly driven by net margin, despite asset turnover and leverage moving in the opposite direction.
Is the profit sustainable?
Accounting profit is positive but operating cash flow has not caught up — needs more time to confirm.
What is driving the margin?
Net margin edged up to 1.27%, rising 0.4pp. Core operating signals are improving as Gross margin rose 1.1pp are enough to offset pressure from SG&A / Revenue rose 0.3pp (in addition, Other profit / Revenue rose 0.5pp added support while Net financial result / Revenue fell 0.7pp remained a drag).
The improvement comes from core operations — this is a high-quality margin expansion.
Profitability trend
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Watchpoints
Margin support from financial result remains high (59.0% of PBT) — sustainability should be monitored.
Is capital being used efficiently?
Evaluate capital, asset, and working-capital efficiency.
Is capital being deployed efficiently?
ROIC stands at 0.67%, broadly flat versus the same period. That translates to 0.67 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. NOPAT margin steady, but capital turnover fell 0.15x, with invested capital holding roughly steady — the two factors are offsetting each other, keeping overall ROIC nearly unchanged.
Overall ROIC is flat while internal components are moving — watch which side becomes dominant in coming periods.
Watchpoints
ROIC is currently 0.67% — below the typical cost-of-capital threshold; worth tracking whether upcoming periods can rise above this level.
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Balance Sheet
Leverage is elevated, requiring monitoring — liabilities at 1.67x equity, net debt at 1.58x equity.
Inventory ended the period at 548.2bn, roughly 76.4% of total assets.
Over the last 12 months, working capital released 0.0bn of cash.
Working Capital Drivers
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Working Capital Efficiency
Cash conversion cycle lengthened by 37.2 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO rose 34.8 days, DSO rose 5.2 days, and DPO rose 2.8 days.
Working capital cycle lengthened mainly due to slower inventory turnover — more capital is being tied up in inventory.
Watchpoints
CCC stands at 273.2 days, suggesting that working capital remains tied up for a relatively long operating cycle.
DSO increased by +5.2 days, pointing to slower receivables turnover.
Working Capital Efficiency
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Is financial risk significant?
High leverage combined with negative operating cash flow — this area needs close monitoring.
Leverage & Liquidity
Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 1.58x and interest coverage only at 0.22x.
At present, short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, cash equals 1.1% of debt, and total debt stands at 434.8bn.
Watchpoints
Net debt / equity stands at 1.58x, increasing balance-sheet pressure.
Interest coverage is 0.22x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.
Leverage and liquidity trend
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Cash Flow
High leverage combined with cash flow below reveals the actual liquidity pressure. Operating cash flow reached -26.6bn in 2025, against investing cash flow of 16.1bn.
Post-investment cash flow was negative +10.5bn. Financing cash flow was positive +8.9bn.
CFO / net income was -5.97x.
After spending +0.3bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −65.5bn.
Cash Conversion
TTM Cash Conversion · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Investment Takeaway
The business is showing a few weaker signals, but the current magnitude is not yet clear enough to conclude that this is a broader weakening phase. The next item to monitor is the earnings mix, when non-core contribution is -180.9%. The main risk still sits in capital efficiency remains weak, with ROIC at 0.7%.
Watchpoint: the earnings mix still needs monitoring, with net financial result still accounting for -180.9% of PBT and CFO / net income currently at -5.97x.
Key risk: Capital efficiency remains weak.
Statement Data
| Item | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net Revenue
|
837.2 | 879.8 | 670.8 | 773.8 | 687.3 |
|
Cost of Goods Sold
|
796.4 | 841.1 | 623.7 | 730.2 | 0.0 |
|
Gross Profit
|
40.8 | 38.8 | 47.2 | 43.6 | 108.3 |
|
Financial Expenses
|
24.7 | 25.2 | 29.2 | 23.4 | -17.1 |
|
Selling Expenses
|
4.9 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | -4.1 |
|
General and Administrative Expenses
|
8.5 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 9.8 | -11.5 |
|
Operating Profit
|
3.9 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 78.1 |
|
Profit Before Tax
|
12.1 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 78.1 |
|
Net Income
|
9.6 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 62.8 |
|
Profit Attributable to Parent
|
9.6 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 62.8 |
|
Earnings per Share
|
641.00 | 540.00 | 296.00 | 378.00 | 4,185.00 |
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