MEL

Thép Mê Lin ·HNX ·2026Q1

▼ Slightly negative

Capital efficiency remains weak ROE 0.67%, −0.00pp YoY
Price
7,700
Latest close
03 Jun 2026
P/E 10.58x
P/B 0.43x
EPS 728
BVPS 18,087
ROE 4.1%
ROA 1.5%
Profit Margin 1.3%
Asset Turnover 1.14x
Equity Mult. 2.83x

TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2026Q1 basis, MEL has not moved the needle on revenue, but profitability has edged up slightly — earnings have been recovering gradually over multiple periods. More notably, profit is significantly supported by non-core sources and operating cash flow is not yet positive — the earnings quality picture needs close monitoring.

TTM REVENUE
VND 857bn
−7.4%YoY
NET MARGIN
1.27%
+0.4ppYoY
TTM NET PROFIT
VND 11bn
+35.8%YoY
Non-core income / PBT
59.0%
Metric Q1'26 Q4'25 Q3'25 Q2'25 Q1'25 Q4'24 Q3'24 Q2'24 Q1'24 Q4'23 Q3'23 Q2'23
Revenue 236.3 232.1 227.5 161.4 216.2 283.4 268.0 158.1 170.4 177.3 183.6 179.8
Growth +2% +2% +41% -25% -24% +6% +70% -7% -4% -3% +2%
Net Income 2.4 1.7 0.3 6.5 1.1 4.1 1.0 1.9 1.5 0.5 0.9 1.1
Net Margin 1.01% 0.74% 0.13% 4.03% 0.51% 1.43% 0.36% 1.21% 0.90% 0.27% 0.49% 0.61%

Drivers of MEL's profit

TTM

Net profit attributable to parent increased vs last year, mainly helped by higher gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Gross profit ↑ 6.7bn
Other profit ↑ 3.8bn
Financial income ↓ 2.6bn
Tax ↑ 1.6bn
Finance costs ↑ 1.5bn
Selling expenses ↑ 1.5bn
TTM

Net profit attributable to parent increased vs prior quarter, mainly helped by higher gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Gross profit ↑ 3.8bn
Finance costs ↑ 1.2bn
Administrative expenses ↑ 0.7bn
Tax ↑ 0.3bn
Selling expenses ↑ 0.2bn

Financial Highlights

Detailed analysis of each financial dimension

ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

2025Q1 3.1% = 0.9% × 1.28 × 2.83
2026Q1 4.1% = 1.3% × 1.14 × 2.83

ROE rose from 3.1% to 4.1% — mainly driven by net margin, despite asset turnover and leverage moving in the opposite direction.

Net margin: 1.3% +0.4pp Asset turnover: 1.14x -0.14x Leverage: 2.83x -0.00x

Is the profit sustainable?

Accounting profit is positive but operating cash flow has not caught up — needs more time to confirm.

very positive positive stable watch under pressure

What is driving the margin?

Net margin edged up to 1.27%, rising 0.4pp. Core operating signals are improving as Gross margin rose 1.1pp are enough to offset pressure from SG&A / Revenue rose 0.3pp (in addition, Other profit / Revenue rose 0.5pp added support while Net financial result / Revenue fell 0.7pp remained a drag).

The improvement comes from core operations — this is a high-quality margin expansion.

Profitability trend

Net Margin 1.27% +0.4pp
Gross Margin 5.28% +1.1pp
SG&A / Revenue 1.73% +0.3pp
Non-core / Revenue -1.95% −0.2pp

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Watchpoints

Financial result is supporting margin

Margin support from financial result remains high (59.0% of PBT) — sustainability should be monitored.

Is capital being used efficiently?

Evaluate capital, asset, and working-capital efficiency.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

ROIC stands at 0.67%, broadly flat versus the same period. That translates to 0.67 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. NOPAT margin steady, but capital turnover fell 0.15x, with invested capital holding roughly steady — the two factors are offsetting each other, keeping overall ROIC nearly unchanged.

Overall ROIC is flat while internal components are moving — watch which side becomes dominant in coming periods.

Watchpoints

ROIC remains low

ROIC is currently 0.67% — below the typical cost-of-capital threshold; worth tracking whether upcoming periods can rise above this level.

CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

ROIC 0.67% −0.0pp
NOPAT Margin 0.52% +0.1pp
Capital Turnover 1.27x −0.15x
Average Invested Capital 672.5bn +24.8bn

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated, requiring monitoring — liabilities at 1.67x equity, net debt at 1.58x equity.

Inventory ended the period at 548.2bn, roughly 76.4% of total assets.

Over the last 12 months, working capital released 0.0bn of cash.

Working Capital Drivers

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Receivables were broadly stable → neutral CFO:
Inventories were broadly stable → neutral CFO:
Payables were broadly stable → neutral CFO:

Working Capital Efficiency

Cash conversion cycle lengthened by 37.2 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO rose 34.8 days, DSO rose 5.2 days, and DPO rose 2.8 days.

Working capital cycle lengthened mainly due to slower inventory turnover — more capital is being tied up in inventory.

Watchpoints

Cash conversion cycle remains stretched

CCC stands at 273.2 days, suggesting that working capital remains tied up for a relatively long operating cycle.

Receivables collection is slowing

DSO increased by +5.2 days, pointing to slower receivables turnover.

Working Capital Efficiency

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Receivables 40.4 days +5.2 days
Inventory 260.1 days +34.8 days
Payables 27.3 days +2.8 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 273.2 days +37.2 days

Is financial risk significant?

High leverage combined with negative operating cash flow — this area needs close monitoring.

Leverage & Liquidity

Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 1.58x and interest coverage only at 0.22x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, cash equals 1.1% of debt, and total debt stands at 434.8bn.

Watchpoints

Net leverage is elevated

Net debt / equity stands at 1.58x, increasing balance-sheet pressure.

Interest coverage is thin

Interest coverage is 0.22x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.

Leverage and liquidity trend

Net Debt / Equity 1.58x +0.11x
Interest Coverage 0.22x +0.01x
Cash / Debt 1.1% −1.8pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt 100.0% 0.0pp
CFO / NI -5.97x −8.99x

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Cash Flow

High leverage combined with cash flow below reveals the actual liquidity pressure. Operating cash flow reached -26.6bn in 2025, against investing cash flow of 16.1bn.

Post-investment cash flow was negative +10.5bn. Financing cash flow was positive +8.9bn.

CFO / net income was -5.97x.

After spending +0.3bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −65.5bn.

Cash Conversion

TTM Cash Conversion · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

CFO TTM 65.2bn −89.5bn
Cash Capex 0.3bn −6.0bn
FCF TTM −65.5bn −83.5bn

Investment Takeaway

The business is showing a few weaker signals, but the current magnitude is not yet clear enough to conclude that this is a broader weakening phase. The next item to monitor is the earnings mix, when non-core contribution is -180.9%. The main risk still sits in capital efficiency remains weak, with ROIC at 0.7%.

Watchpoint: the earnings mix still needs monitoring, with net financial result still accounting for -180.9% of PBT and CFO / net income currently at -5.97x.

Key risk: Capital efficiency remains weak.

Statement Data

Item 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Net Revenue
837.2 879.8 670.8 773.8 687.3
Cost of Goods Sold
796.4 841.1 623.7 730.2 0.0
Gross Profit
40.8 38.8 47.2 43.6 108.3
Financial Expenses
24.7 25.2 29.2 23.4 -17.1
Selling Expenses
4.9 3.3 4.5 4.3 -4.1
General and Administrative Expenses
8.5 8.6 8.8 9.8 -11.5
Operating Profit
3.9 5.4 5.2 6.8 78.1
Profit Before Tax
12.1 9.3 5.6 7.1 78.1
Net Income
9.6 8.1 4.4 5.7 62.8
Profit Attributable to Parent
9.6 8.1 4.4 5.7 62.8
Earnings per Share
641.00 540.00 296.00 378.00 4,185.00

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