VDS

Chứng khoán Rồng Việt ·HOSE ·2026Q1

● PROVISION HEAVY

Provision drag PBT margin 26.8%, +0.6% YoY
Price
13,700
Latest close
03 Jun 2026
EPS TTM (TTM) 851
BVPS (Latest) 11,099
P/E (Price/EPS) 16.1x
P/B (Price/BVPS) 1.2x
ROAE TTM (TTM) 8.0%
PBT Margin (TTM) 26.8%
Trading Share (Mix) 29.3%
Service & Brokerage Share (Mix) 26.0%
Equity / Assets (Latest) 38.5%
Leverage (Latest) 1.6x

Securities House Picture

On a TTM basis through 2026Q1, pre-tax profit is currently about 288.1bn, equivalent to a pre-tax margin of 26.8%, but earnings quality is still being dragged down by provisioning, while pre-tax profit is also rising clearly year on year. The revenue mix is now leaning more toward lending at 44.7% but narrowing by 1.4pp, while trading is down to 29.3% after narrowing by 2.7pp; brokerage and services have reached 26.0% and improved by +4.1pp, making diversification more visible. On the balance sheet, Equity / Assets is 38.5% while Leverage is about 1.60x, indicating a still relatively balanced capital posture, but buffers have thinned while leverage has risen further.

Trading
Doanh thu 337 tỷ
+19,8%
Lãi thuần 221 tỷ
+5,2%
Margin lending
Doanh thu 440 tỷ
+12,5%
Dư nợ 3.842 tỷ
+20,3%
Brokerage
Doanh thu 236 tỷ
+39,7%
Lãi thuần 66,6 tỷ
+85,0%
Metric Q1'26 Q4'25 Q3'25 Q2'25 Q1'25 Q4'24 Q3'24 Q2'24 Q1'24
PBT -36.0 15.7 325.8 -17.4 22.6 -33.6 92.3 145.8 151.1
Trading Share -13.8% 11.0% 57.2% 16.4% 20.8% 2.1% 32.9% 51.6% 49.1%
Lending Share 76.6% 57.4% 23.8% 56.0% 56.3% 67.9% 46.1% 30.4% 31.0%
Service & Brokerage Share 37.2% 31.6% 19.0% 27.6% 23.0% 29.9% 21.0% 18.0% 19.9%
PBT Margin -17.77% 7.09% 69.34% -9.64% 13.40% -21.94% 40.76% 45.84% 52.40%
Equity / Assets 38.5% 38.2% 40.8% 41.3% 44.8% 43.9% 46.7% 43.9% 45.4%
Leverage 1.60x 1.62x 1.45x 1.42x 1.23x 1.28x 1.14x 1.28x 1.20x

Drivers of VDS's profit

TTM

Net profit attributable to parent increased vs last year, mainly helped by higher margin lending. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Margin lending +VND 48.9bn
Trading +VND 44.8bn
Brokerage +VND 30.6bn
Total costs −VND 66.7bn
Tax −VND 14.3bn
TTM

Net profit attributable to parent declined vs prior quarter, mainly due to lower trading. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Margin lending +VND 26.6bn
Tax +VND 10.2bn
Brokerage +VND 8.8bn
Trading −VND 60.5bn
Total costs −VND 33.1bn

Financial Highlights

Detailed analysis of each financial dimension

Is revenue sustainable?

very positive positive stable watch under pressure

Revenue Mix & Earnings Engine

Where are current earnings coming from?

Current earnings lean more heavily on margin lending, so the quality of the revenue engine should be read together with margin-book dependence.

Margin income currently accounts for about 44.7%, trading is at 29.3%, brokerage and services together remain around 26.0% of the engine mix.

When lending is the main engine, headline quality depends more heavily on margin-book safety and funding cost.

Revaluation is currently a drag rather than a standalone headline driver.

The revenue headline should be read together with leakage into provisioning and net margin, not just the surface mix.

Key risks

Provision drag is eroding revenue

Provision load is large enough relative to revenue to weaken the quality of the earnings engine.

Key signals

Securities business revenue 1,075.7bn +24.1% YoY
PBT margin 26.8% +0.6pp
Lending Share 44.7% −1.4pp
Brokerage Share 23.9% +4.1pp
Provisions / Revenue 26.5% −4.5pp

TTM YoY · 2026Q1

Profitability Quality & Volatility

How strong is current profitability, and how durable is it?

Profit remains positive, but quality is no longer clean because provisioning is materially eroding headline returns.

Pre-tax margin is currently 26.8%, Return on assets is about 3.3%, provisions equal 98.9% of pre-tax profit, revaluation accounts for -23.1% of pre-tax profit.

Headline profit needs a discount because provisioning is eating into core returns.

Profit remains sensitive to revaluation swings.

Provisioning is a meaningful drag on profit.

Key risks

Provision drag remains meaningful

Provision load relative to PBT is high enough to weigh on profitability quality.

Key signals

PBT margin 26.8% +0.6pp
Net margin 21.7% +0.2pp
ROAA 3.3% +0.7pp
ROAE 8.0% +1.6pp
Provisions / PBT 98.9% −19.4pp

TTM YoY · 2026Q1

Are assets at risk?

Balance Sheet Quality & Asset Composition

Where is the balance sheet exposed, and how resilient does it look?

The balance sheet is leaning more toward the margin book, so growth quality depends meaningfully on the safety of loans and receivables.

The margin book is about 48.8% of assets, the prop book about 16.2%, liquid assets around 26.2%, equity roughly 38.5%.

A high margin-book share makes the balance sheet more sensitive to asset quality and funding cost.

The margin book is larger than the prop book.

Capital buffer is not the main weakness for now, so the key reading point shifts to which assets are driving the balance sheet.

Key risks

Margin-book concentration risk

Loans and receivables are large enough to make the balance sheet more sensitive to asset quality and funding cost.

Key signals

Margin book / Assets 48.8% −1.5pp
Prop book / Assets 16.2% −7.7pp
Liquid assets / Assets 26.2% +15.7pp
Equity / Assets 38.5% −6.3pp
Liabilities / Equity 1.60x +0.37x

Quarterly YoY · 2026Q1

Is leverage safe?

Capital, Funding & Risk Posture

Are capital buffers and funding posture sufficiently safe?

Funding and liquidity look relatively comfortable, so risk posture is not currently the veto point for the case.

Equity currently equals 38.5% of assets, liabilities stand at 1.60x of equity, short-term borrowings are about 28.4% of assets, cash covers roughly 0.38x of short-term borrowings.

Capital and funding are mainly acting as a buffer for the case, rather than the main source of headline distortion.

When funding and liquidity remain adequate, capital posture works more as a buffer than a veto point.

Liquidity buffer remains relatively better than short-term funding needs.

Key risks

Key signals

Equity / Assets 38.5% −6.3pp
Liabilities / Equity 1.60x +0.37x
Short-term borrowings / Assets 28.4% +21.5pp
Liquid assets / Assets 16.0% +5.5pp
Cash / Short-term borrowings 0.38x −1.15x

Quarterly YoY · 2026Q1

Investment Takeaway

Overall, VDS is still profitable, but headline quality is being pulled down more clearly by provisioning, so earnings should be read with caution.

Brokerage and service income are now large enough to reduce pure dependence on trading or margin.

Profit is still positive, but provisioning is large enough to make earnings durability less certain.

Provisioning is now large enough that headline profitability should be read with more caution.

Statement Data

Item 2025 2024
1.1. Gains from financial assets at fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL)
343.8 380.7
1.3. Interest income from loans and receivables
413.7 388.9
1.6. Revenue from brokerage services
215.0 188.0
Revenue from securities business (01->11)
1,041.8 987.4
Operating expenses (21->33)
542.0 514.3
Gross profit
499.8 473.0
Total financial income (41->44)
54.4 53.4
Total financial expenses (51->54)
33.5 5.5
VI. General and Administrative expenses
174.0 165.8
VII. Net profit from securities business (20+50-40-60-61-62)
346.8 355.2
IX. Profit before tax (70+80)
346.8 355.6
CORPORATE INCOME TAX
64.6 64.4
XI. Net profit after tax (90-100)
282.2 291.2
11.1. Profit after tax for shareholders of the parents company
283.1 289.8
11.3. Profit after tax attribute to non-controling interest
-1.0 1.4
Total other comprehensive income
-51.6 -2.5
13.1. Earning per share
1,054.00 1,216.00
13.2. Diluted earning per share
1,054.00 1,216.00
Earnings per Share
1,033.88 1,193.86

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