AGR
Chứng khoán Agribank ·HOSE ·2026Q1
▲ MARGIN LENDING STRONG
Securities House Picture
On a TTM basis through 2026Q1, pre-tax profit is currently about 190.6bn, equivalent to a pre-tax margin of 36.4%, showing a relatively clean and sufficiently thick earnings base, while margin has narrowed by 2.5pp, pointing to greater pressure on earnings quality. The revenue mix is now leaning more toward lending at 49.0% after expanding by +0.4pp, while trading is down to 20.4% after narrowing by 2.5pp; brokerage and services have reached 30.6% and improved by +2.1pp, making diversification more visible. On the balance sheet, Equity / Assets is 50.4% while Leverage is about 0.98x, indicating that buffers and funding are not yet truly roomy, but buffers have thinned while leverage has risen further.
| Metric | Q1'26 | Q4'25 | Q3'25 | Q2'25 | Q1'25 | Q4'24 | Q3'24 | Q2'24 | Q1'24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBT | 54.6 | 36.5 | 86.1 | 13.4 | 40.4 | 54.3 | 37.5 | 32.9 | 43.8 |
| Trading Share | 22.6% | 2.5% | 28.9% | 25.1% | 33.9% | 21.9% | 16.9% | 19.8% | 23.8% |
| Lending Share | 53.2% | 63.6% | 36.0% | 47.0% | 44.8% | 48.7% | 50.4% | 49.5% | 51.2% |
| Service & Brokerage Share | 24.3% | 33.9% | 35.1% | 27.9% | 21.3% | 29.5% | 32.6% | 30.7% | 25.0% |
| PBT Margin | 37.55% | 29.56% | 54.86% | 13.72% | 38.89% | 54.09% | 38.23% | 26.97% | 47.47% |
| Equity / Assets | 50.4% | 57.9% | 64.9% | 83.6% | 85.8% | 70.3% | 69.8% | 65.9% | 71.3% |
| Leverage | 0.98x | 0.73x | 0.54x | 0.20x | 0.17x | 0.42x | 0.43x | 0.52x | 0.40x |
Drivers of AGR's profit
Net profit attributable to parent increased vs last year, mainly helped by higher margin lending. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Net profit attributable to parent increased vs prior quarter, mainly helped by higher trading. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Financial Highlights
Detailed analysis of each financial dimension
Is revenue sustainable?
Revenue Mix & Earnings Engine
Where are current earnings coming from?
Current earnings lean more heavily on margin lending, so the quality of the revenue engine should be read together with margin-book dependence.
Margin income currently accounts for about 49.0%, trading is at 20.4%, brokerage and services together remain around 30.6% of the engine mix.
When lending is the main engine, headline quality depends more heavily on margin-book safety and funding cost.
Revaluation does not fully dominate trading income at this stage.
The mix is still fairly readable for now, but case durability will depend on whether brokerage and services keep thickening.
Key risks
Key signals
TTM YoY · 2026Q1
Profitability Quality & Volatility
How strong is current profitability, and how durable is it?
Profitability currently looks relatively clean, with margins and returns strong enough not to rely heavily on unusual support.
Pre-tax margin is currently 36.4%, Return on assets is about 3.8%, provisions equal -5.2% of pre-tax profit, revaluation accounts for 13.0% of pre-tax profit.
Headline profit is still fairly readable because returns are not being materially distorted by less durable support.
Profit appears cleaner and less dependent on revaluation.
Provisioning is not currently the main drag on profit.
Key risks
Key signals
TTM YoY · 2026Q1
Are assets at risk?
Balance Sheet Quality & Asset Composition
Where is the balance sheet exposed, and how resilient does it look?
The balance sheet is leaning more toward the margin book, so growth quality depends meaningfully on the safety of loans and receivables.
The margin book is about 49.2% of assets, the prop book about 9.1%, liquid assets around 35.1%, equity roughly 50.4%.
A high margin-book share makes the balance sheet more sensitive to asset quality and funding cost.
The margin book is larger than the prop book.
Capital buffer is not the main weakness for now, so the key reading point shifts to which assets are driving the balance sheet.
Key risks
Loans and receivables are large enough to make the balance sheet more sensitive to asset quality and funding cost.
Key signals
Quarterly YoY · 2026Q1
Is leverage safe?
Capital, Funding & Risk Posture
Are capital buffers and funding posture sufficiently safe?
Short-term funding is the tighter part of the balance sheet, even if the case is not yet in outright capital stress.
Equity currently equals 50.4% of assets, liabilities stand at 0.98x of equity, short-term borrowings are about 47.6% of assets, cash covers roughly 0.08x of short-term borrowings.
The point that needs the closest reading now is short-term funding structure rather than the earnings headline.
Risk is coming more from short-term funding, so the key reading point is not just borrowing size but cash and liquid-asset cover.
Liquidity buffer remains relatively better than short-term funding needs.
Key risks
Short-term borrowings or cash coverage are in a range that creates more pressure on funding and liquidity posture.
Key signals
Quarterly YoY · 2026Q1
Investment Takeaway
Overall, AGR is showing a more balanced earnings mix thanks to brokerage and service income, but short-term funding remains tight enough for caution.
Brokerage and service income are now large enough to reduce pure dependence on trading or margin.
Short-term funding structure is tight enough to become the most visible risk in the current capital posture.
Statement Data
| Item | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
|
1.1. Gains from financial assets at fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL)
|
97.6 | 68.4 |
|
1.3. Interest income from loans and receivables
|
196.1 | 165.5 |
|
1.6. Revenue from brokerage services
|
91.7 | 70.8 |
|
Revenue from securities business (01->11)
|
482.0 | 412.9 |
|
Operating expenses (21->33)
|
161.8 | 112.0 |
|
Gross profit
|
320.2 | 300.9 |
|
Total financial income (41->44)
|
1.5 | 1.2 |
|
Total financial expenses (51->54)
|
43.6 | 34.2 |
|
VI. General and Administrative expenses
|
102.1 | 99.1 |
|
VII. Net profit from securities business (20+50-40-60-61-62)
|
176.0 | 168.9 |
|
IX. Profit before tax (70+80)
|
176.3 | 168.5 |
|
CORPORATE INCOME TAX
|
34.5 | 33.4 |
|
XI. Net profit after tax (90-100)
|
141.9 | 135.2 |
|
11.1. Profit after tax for shareholders of the parents company
|
141.9 | 135.2 |
|
Total other comprehensive income
|
-3.2 | -22.1 |
|
13.1. Earning per share
|
562.00 | 627.00 |
|
Earnings per Share
|
620.29 | 626.22 |
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