APP
Phát triển Phụ gia và Sản phẩm Dầu Mỏ ·UPCOM ·2022Q4
▼ Under pressure
TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity
What Is Changing
On a TTM 2022Q4 basis, APP posted a sharp profit decline versus the same period — the growth momentum has held across consecutive periods. What still needs to be determined is whether this drop reflects current operating pressure or an unusually high comparison base from the prior period.
| Metric | Q4'22 | Q3'22 | Q2'22 | Q1'22 | Q4'21 | Q3'21 | Q2'21 | Q1'21 | Q4'20 | Q3'20 | Q2'20 | Q1'20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 43.7 | 69.6 | 96.4 | 61.5 | 38.2 | 45.2 | 58.6 | 57.7 | 45.7 | 44.5 | 44.0 | 55.4 |
| Growth | -37% | -28% | +57% | +61% | -15% | -23% | +2% | +26% | +3% | +1% | -21% | — |
| Net Income | -1.6 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 3.0 | -1.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.5 | -0.1 |
| Net Margin | -3.58% | 0.35% | -0.07% | 4.92% | -2.89% | 3.58% | 2.75% | 2.46% | 0.70% | 1.00% | -1.06% | -0.15% |
Drivers of APP's profit
Net profit attributable to parent declined vs last year, mainly due to higher selling expenses. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Net profit attributable to parent declined vs prior quarter, mainly due to higher selling expenses. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Financial Highlights
Detailed analysis of each financial dimension
ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier
ROE fell from 7.1% to 3.2% — leverage weakened the most, though asset turnover still provided support.
Is the profit sustainable?
Margins narrowed but earnings quality remains clean — pressure is mainly operational.
What is driving the margin?
Net margin narrowed to 0.61%, falling 1.2pp. The main pressure comes from SG&A / Revenue rose 19.0pp and Gross margin fell 5.9pp (with lingering pressure from Net financial result / Revenue fell 2.0pp).
The pressure comes from non-core items while core operations hold their rhythm — margin has a basis to recover once this factor passes.
Profitability trend
TTM YoY · 2021Q4 -> 2022Q4
Is capital being used efficiently?
Capital efficiency is declining — check whether the drag is from margins or turnover.
Is capital being deployed efficiently?
ROIC fell to 1.80%, losing 2.3pp. That translates to 1.80 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. The main pressure came from NOPAT margin narrowed 1.1pp, outweighing the movement in capital turnover; with invested capital holding roughly steady.
Pressure came from the margin side — core operations are weakening, not just a temporary asset-management issue.
Watchpoints
ROIC is currently 1.80% — below the typical cost-of-capital threshold; worth tracking whether upcoming periods can rise above this level.
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND
TTM YoY · 2021Q4 -> 2022Q4
Balance Sheet
ROIC declined — the balance sheet shows how capital is being deployed. Capital structure is balanced — liabilities at 0.38x equity, net debt at 0.58x equity.
Inventory ended the period at 13.8bn, roughly 23.1% of total assets.
Over the last 12 months, working capital released 0.1bn of cash, mainly thanks to lower receivables and lower inventories. Pressure from lower payables only partly offset that benefit.
Working Capital Drivers
TTM YoY · 2021Q4 -> 2022Q4
Working Capital Efficiency
Track receivable, inventory, and payable turns to judge working-capital efficiency.
Track DSO, DIO, DPO components to evaluate working capital turnover efficiency.
Watchpoints
DSO increased by +13.5 days, pointing to slower receivables turnover.
Working Capital Efficiency
TTM YoY · 2021Q4 -> 2022Q4
Is financial risk significant?
Leverage is safe but FCF is negative at 2.3bn due to capex of 3.8bn — an investment choice, not an urgent risk.
Leverage & Liquidity
Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 0.58x and interest coverage only at 0.72x.
At present, short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, cash equals 5.0% of debt, and total debt stands at 30.6bn.
Watchpoints
Interest coverage is 0.72x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.
Short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, raising near-term refinancing needs.
Leverage and liquidity trend
TTM YoY · 2021Q4 -> 2022Q4
Cash Flow
With safe leverage noted above, cash flow below shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 14.6bn in 2024, against investing cash flow of 4.7bn.
Post-investment cash flow was positive +19.4bn. Financing cash flow was negative +18.8bn.
CFO / net income was 0.90x.
After spending +3.8bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −2.3bn.
Cash Conversion
TTM Cash Conversion · 2021Q4 -> 2022Q4
Investment Takeaway
The business is under real pressure, but the current picture has not turned broadly adverse. A notable area has clearly weakened, making the near-term outlook hard to call bright; even so, other parts of the business are still holding up, with capital efficiency remains weak remaining the main constraint, with ROIC at 1.8%. The main offsetting support comes from earnings conversion is confirmed, with CFO/NI at 0.90x.
Improvement: earnings conversion looks more confirmed, with CFO / net income at 0.90x.
Key risk: Capital efficiency remains weak.
Statement Data
| Item | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net Revenue
|
210.5 | 200.8 | 271.3 | 199.7 | 189.5 |
|
Cost of Goods Sold
|
194.9 | 184.1 | 247.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|
Gross Profit
|
15.6 | 16.7 | 24.0 | 29.5 | 23.6 |
|
Financial Expenses
|
2.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | -2.2 | -2.9 |
|
Selling Expenses
|
9.3 | 10.1 | 11.8 | -12.3 | -10.6 |
|
General and Administrative Expenses
|
10.2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | -11.0 | -10.9 |
|
Operating Profit
|
-6.3 | -4.5 | 0.4 | 4.0 | -0.6 |
|
Profit Before Tax
|
-2.1 | -4.5 | 0.6 | 4.3 | 0.2 |
|
Net Income
|
-2.4 | -4.5 | 0.4 | 3.5 | 0.2 |
|
Profit Attributable to Parent
|
-2.4 | -4.5 | 0.4 | 3.5 | 0.2 |
|
Earnings per Share
|
-511.00 | -953.00 | 92.00 | 759.92 | 0.18 |
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