TMB

Kinh doanh Than Miền Bắc - Vinacomin ·HNX ·2025Q4

▼▼ Declining sharply

Capital efficiency remains weak ROE 0.83%, −1.94pp YoY
Price
51,700
Latest close
02 Jun 2026
P/E 10.23x
P/B 0.89x
EPS 5,056
BVPS 58,063
ROE 9.1%
ROA 2.1%
Profit Margin 0.3%
Asset Turnover 8.28x
Equity Mult. 4.39x

TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2025Q4 basis, TMB is losing revenue quickly, though margins have not been hit proportionally yet. More notably, a significant portion of profit is supported by non-core sources, further affecting earnings quality.

TTM REVENUE
VND 30,187bn
−27.6%YoY
NET MARGIN
0.25%
−0.1ppYoY
TTM NET PROFIT
VND 76bn
−44.2%YoY
Non-core income / PBT
72.4%
Metric Q4'25 Q3'25 Q2'25 Q1'25 Q4'24 Q3'24 Q2'24 Q1'24 Q4'23 Q3'23 Q2'23 Q1'23
Revenue 6,091.6 5,348.4 9,013.2 9,734.0 9,577.2 8,506.0 11,484.5 12,151.2 8,238.6 8,676.2 11,464.4 8,733.9
Growth +14% -41% -7% +2% +13% -26% -5% +47% -5% -24% +31%
Net Income 8.0 -2.8 30.4 40.3 27.5 26.4 54.2 27.7 145.2 24.2 152.6 21.6
Net Margin 0.13% -0.05% 0.34% 0.41% 0.29% 0.31% 0.47% 0.23% 1.76% 0.28% 1.33% 0.25%

Drivers of TMB's profit

TTM

Net profit attributable to parent declined vs last year, mainly due to lower gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Selling expenses ↓ 136.3bn
Finance costs ↓ 38.0bn
Tax ↓ 16.6bn
Other profit ↑ 12.6bn
Gross profit ↓ 260.1bn
TTM

Net profit attributable to parent declined vs prior quarter, mainly due to lower gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Selling expenses ↓ 23.4bn
Finance costs ↓ 18.9bn
Tax ↓ 7.4bn
Administrative expenses ↓ 4.7bn
Gross profit ↓ 64.0bn
Financial income ↓ 6.7bn

Financial Highlights

Detailed analysis of each financial dimension

ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

2024Q4 17.8% = 0.3% × 10.54 × 5.19
2025Q4 9.1% = 0.3% × 8.28 × 4.39

ROE fell from 17.8% to 9.1% — asset turnover weakened the most.

Net margin: 0.3% -0.1pp Asset turnover: 8.28x -2.26x Leverage: 4.39x -0.80x

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins are under pressure while earnings still rely significantly on non-core sources.

very positive positive stable watch under pressure

What is driving the margin?

Net margin stands at 0.25%, broadly flat versus the same period. Supportive factors and pressure points are offsetting one another.

Margin is nearly flat but the underlying components are moving — this is a transitional phase, more time is needed to see the real trend.

Profitability trend

Net Margin 0.25% −0.1pp
Gross Margin 4.17% +0.5pp
SG&A / Revenue 3.76% +0.7pp
Non-core / Revenue -0.03% +0.1pp

TTM YoY · 2024Q4 -> 2025Q4

Watchpoints

Non-core sources is supporting margin

Margin support from non-core sources remains high (72.4% of PBT) — sustainability should be monitored.

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency is declining — check whether the drag is from margins or turnover.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

ROIC fell to 0.83%, losing 1.9pp. That translates to 0.83 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. The main pressure came from capital turnover fell 1.49x — capital is being absorbed faster than revenue is being generated; while invested capital contracted by 577bn.

Pressure came from turnover — added capital has not been absorbed quickly enough, a typical investment-cycle dynamic.

Watchpoints

ROIC remains low

ROIC is currently 0.83% — below the typical cost-of-capital threshold; worth tracking whether upcoming periods can rise above this level.

CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND

TTM YoY · 2024Q4 -> 2025Q4

ROIC 0.83% −1.9pp
NOPAT Margin 0.07% −0.1pp
Capital Turnover 12.00x −1.49x
Average Invested Capital 2,516.3bn −576.5bn

Balance Sheet

ROIC declined — the balance sheet shows how capital is being deployed. Leverage is elevated, requiring monitoring — liabilities at 2.81x equity, net debt at 1.27x equity.

Inventory ended the period at 2,515.2bn, roughly 75.8% of total assets.

Over the last 12 months, working capital released 1,239.8bn of cash, mainly thanks to lower receivables and lower inventories.

Working Capital Drivers

TTM YoY · 2024Q4 -> 2025Q4

Receivables decreased → higher CFO: +461.5bn
Inventories decreased → higher CFO: +402.3bn
Payables increased → higher CFO: +376.0bn

Working Capital Efficiency

The inventory build-up noted above is reflected in a longer cash cycle. Cash conversion cycle lengthened by 3.3 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO rose 8.4 days, DSO fell 1.7 days, and DPO rose 3.4 days.

Working capital cycle lengthened mainly due to slower inventory turnover — more capital is being tied up in inventory.

Watchpoints

Cash conversion cycle is lengthening

CCC is up by +3.3 days, indicating weaker working-capital turnover versus the prior year.

Inventory turnover is slowing

DIO increased by +8.4 days, suggesting more capital is being tied up in inventories.

Working Capital Efficiency

TTM YoY · 2024Q4 -> 2025Q4

Receivables 6.7 days −1.7 days
Inventory 33.8 days +8.4 days
Payables 9.3 days +3.4 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 31.1 days +3.3 days

Is financial risk significant?

Financial risk is low — leverage is safe, both CFO and FCF are positive.

Leverage & Liquidity

Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 1.27x and interest coverage only at 0.23x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, cash equals 6.0% of debt, and total debt stands at 1,172.2bn.

Watchpoints

Net leverage is elevated

Net debt / equity stands at 1.27x, increasing balance-sheet pressure.

Interest coverage is thin

Interest coverage is 0.23x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.

Leverage and liquidity trend

Net Debt / Equity 1.27x −1.60x
Interest Coverage 0.23x −0.46x
Cash / Debt 6.0% +5.2pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt 100.0% 0.0pp
CFO / NI 16.13x +14.87x

TTM YoY · 2024Q4 -> 2025Q4

Cash Flow

With safe leverage noted above, cash flow below shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 1,223.6bn in 2025, against investing cash flow of -27.7bn.

Post-investment cash flow was positive +1,196.0bn. Financing cash flow was negative +1,143.9bn.

CFO / net income was 16.13x.

After spending +29.9bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of +1,193.8bn.

Cash Conversion

TTM Cash Conversion · 2024Q4 -> 2025Q4

CFO TTM 1,223.6bn +1,052.8bn
Cash Capex 29.9bn +12.7bn
FCF TTM +1,193.8bn +1,040.2bn

Investment Takeaway

The business is under real pressure, but the current picture has not turned broadly adverse. A notable area has clearly weakened, making the near-term outlook hard to call bright; even so, other parts of the business are still holding up, with capital efficiency remains weak remaining the main constraint, with ROIC at 0.8%. The next watchpoint is the earnings mix, when non-core contribution is -79.9%. The main offsetting support comes from cash generation.

Improvement: cash generation is recovering, with trailing-12M FCF improving by 1,040.2bn versus the same period last year.

Watchpoint: cash flow is currently keeping pace with accounting earnings, with CFO / net income at 16.13x. Even so, net financial result still accounts for -79.9% of PBT, so the earnings mix still needs monitoring.

Key risk: Capital efficiency remains weak.

Statement Data

Item 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Net Revenue
30,187.2 41,775.8 37,113.2 24,839.0 11,028.9
Cost of Goods Sold
28,923.4 40,193.8 35,602.9 23,820.9 0.0
Gross Profit
1,263.9 1,582.0 1,510.3 1,018.1 644.1
Financial Expenses
136.2 208.0 131.0 169.9 -35.0
Selling Expenses
1,055.9 1,183.8 926.7 656.4 -490.8
General and Administrative Expenses
77.7 76.8 85.2 67.2 -41.3
Operating Profit
37.8 193.6 377.5 217.2 77.2
Profit Before Tax
121.5 266.4 414.7 243.8 77.1
Net Income
80.9 199.7 331.6 194.7 60.3
Profit Attributable to Parent
80.9 199.7 331.6 194.7 60.3
Earnings per Share
5,393.00 13,310.00 22,108.00 12,981.00 4,018.00

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