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iShareInvest Research

HNX · Quý 1/2026

VFS

Chứng khoán Nhất Việt

Analysis of business results & financial statements · Quý 1/2026

▲ MARGIN LENDING STRONG

TTM NPAT rose +VND 13.0bn compared with the same period last year. Key positives came from higher trading, higher margin lending, and higher other fees. Offsetting pressure came mainly from higher total costs and higher tax.

See what is changing ↓
EPS TTM
1,040
BVPS
12,562
P/E
9.5x
P/B
0.8x
ROAE TTM
8.5%
PBT Margin
32.6%
Market price
9,900
16 Oct 2026

Securities House Picture

On a TTM basis through 2026Q1, pre-tax profit is currently about 178.0bn, equivalent to a pre-tax margin of 32.6%, showing a relatively clean and sufficiently thick earnings base, while margin has narrowed by 19.6pp, pointing to greater pressure on earnings quality. The revenue mix is now leaning more toward lending at 51.5% but narrowing by 1.3pp, while trading is at 21.4%; brokerage and services have reached 27.2% and improved by +1.1pp, making diversification more visible. On the balance sheet, Equity / Assets is 41.9% while Leverage is about 1.38x, indicating that buffers and funding are not yet truly roomy, with buffers thickening and leverage easing further.

Profit bridge

Vs last year · TTM

  1. Trading
  2. Margin lending
  3. Other fees
  4. Brokerage
  5. Total costs
  6. Tax
Unit: VND bn. Green bars support profit; red bars reduce profit.

A single data point, or a trajectory?

Latest eight quarters · Quý 1/2026

MetricQ1'26Q4'25Q3'25Q2'25Q1'25Q4'24Q3'24Q2'24
PBT31.953.648.943.639.747.836.937.5
Trading Share28.8%20.9%15.9%19.5%18.8%39.9%18.6%0.0%
Lending Share51.9%44.7%55.1%56.3%56.6%41.0%54.6%62.2%
Service & Brokerage Share19.3%34.4%29.0%24.2%24.7%19.1%26.8%37.8%
PBT Margin24.53%33.10%34.48%38.90%42.55%50.55%51.42%74.65%
Equity / Assets41.9%37.2%26.5%27.4%35.7%42.7%47.2%58.3%
Leverage1.38x1.69x2.77x2.65x1.80x1.34x1.12x0.71x

Revenue

130bn

Net income

26bn

Net margin

19.61%

A closer look at what is happening inside the business

A broker's statements are read with the industry's own questions: revenue mix, balance sheet, funding.

01

Is revenue sustainable?

Revenue Mix & Earnings Engine

▲

Where are current earnings coming from?

Current earnings lean more heavily on margin lending, so the quality of the revenue engine should be read together with margin-book dependence.

Margin income currently accounts for about 51.5%, trading is at 21.4%, brokerage and services together remain around 27.2% of the engine mix.

When lending is the main engine, headline quality depends more heavily on margin-book safety and funding cost.

Revaluation does not fully dominate trading income at this stage.

The mix is still fairly readable for now, but case durability will depend on whether brokerage and services keep thickening.

Securities business revenue
546.0bn
+76.3% YoY
PBT margin
32.6%
−19.6pp
Lending Share
51.5%
−1.3pp
Brokerage Share
22.6%
−1.7pp

TTM YoY · 2026Q1

Profitability Quality & Volatility

▲▲

How strong is current profitability, and how durable is it?

Profitability currently looks relatively clean, with margins and returns strong enough not to rely heavily on unusual support.

Pre-tax margin is currently 32.6%, Return on assets is about 3.3%, provisions equal −0.1% of pre-tax profit, revaluation accounts for 13.9% of pre-tax profit.

Headline profit is still fairly readable because returns are not being materially distorted by less durable support.

Profit appears cleaner and less dependent on revaluation.

Provisioning is not currently the main drag on profit.

PBT margin
32.6%
−19.6pp
Net margin
26.1%
−15.7pp
ROAA
3.3%
+0.2pp
ROAE
8.5%
+0.7pp

TTM YoY · 2026Q1

02

Are assets at risk?

Balance Sheet Quality & Asset Composition

●

Where is the balance sheet exposed, and how resilient does it look?

The balance sheet is leaning more toward the margin book, so growth quality depends meaningfully on the safety of loans and receivables.

The margin book is about 45.4% of assets, the prop book about 6.0%, liquid assets around 44.8%, equity roughly 41.9%.

A high margin-book share makes the balance sheet more sensitive to asset quality and funding cost.

The margin book is larger than the prop book.

Capital buffer is not the main weakness for now, so the key reading point shifts to which assets are driving the balance sheet.

Margin-book concentration risk

Loans and receivables are large enough to make the balance sheet more sensitive to asset quality and funding cost.

Margin book / Assets
45.4%
+20.1pp
Prop book / Assets
6.0%
−2.3pp
Liquid assets / Assets
44.8%
−19.9pp
Equity / Assets
41.9%
+6.3pp

Quarterly YoY · 2026Q1

03

Is leverage safe?

Capital, Funding & Risk Posture

▼

Are capital buffers and funding posture sufficiently safe?

Short-term funding is the tighter part of the balance sheet, even if the case is not yet in outright capital stress.

Equity currently equals 41.9% of assets, liabilities stand at 1.38x of equity, short-term borrowings are about 57.0% of assets, cash covers roughly 0.06x of short-term borrowings.

The point that needs the closest reading now is short-term funding structure rather than the earnings headline.

Risk is coming more from short-term funding, so the key reading point is not just borrowing size but cash and liquid-asset cover.

Liquidity buffer remains relatively better than short-term funding needs.

Short-term funding pressure

Short-term borrowings or cash coverage are in a range that creates more pressure on funding and liquidity posture.

Equity / Assets
41.9%
+6.3pp
Liabilities / Equity
1.38x
−0.42x
Short-term borrowings / Assets
57.0%
−6.4pp
Liquid assets / Assets
31.6%
−14.3pp

Quarterly YoY · 2026Q1

Research synthesis

What this reporting period is showing

Overall, VFS is showing a more balanced earnings mix thanks to brokerage and service income, but short-term funding remains tight enough for caution.

  • Brokerage and service income are now large enough to reduce pure dependence on trading or margin.
  • Short-term funding structure is tight enough to become the most visible risk in the current capital posture.

Questions for the next period

  1. Track whether the margin engine can remain supportive without pulling the franchise into even heavier dependence on the margin book.

  2. Track whether the current return profile can hold as revenue mix and cost conditions normalize.

  3. Track whether the recent easing in short-term funding can hold, as liquidity buffers have only just improved versus current funding needs.

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