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iShareInvest Research

HOSE · Quý 2/2026

HCM

Chứng khoán Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh

Analysis of business results & financial statements · Quý 2/2026

▲▲ MARGIN LENDING STRONG

TTM NPAT rose +VND 455bn compared with the same period last year. Key positives came from higher margin lending, higher brokerage, and higher trading. Offsetting pressure came mainly from higher total costs and higher tax.

See what is changing ↓
EPS TTM
1,290
BVPS
12,446
P/E
18.5x
P/B
1.9x
ROAE TTM
10.7%
PBT Margin
28.7%
Market price
23,900
20 Oct 2026

Securities House Picture

On a TTM basis through 2026Q2, pre-tax profit is currently about 1,655.3bn, equivalent to a pre-tax margin of 28.7%, showing a relatively clean and sufficiently thick earnings base, with margin also improving by +4.1pp, pointing to better earnings quality. The revenue mix is now leaning more toward lending at 50.5% after expanding by +4.7pp, while trading is down to 25.2% after narrowing by 9.3pp; brokerage and services have reached 24.3% and improved by +4.6pp, making diversification more visible. On the balance sheet, Equity / Assets is 35.5% while Leverage is about 1.82x, indicating that buffers and funding are not yet truly roomy, with buffers thickening and leverage easing further.

Profit bridge

Vs last year · TTM

  1. Margin lending
  2. Brokerage
  3. Trading
  4. Total costs
  5. Tax
Unit: VND bn. Green bars support profit; red bars reduce profit.

A single data point, or a trajectory?

Latest eight quarters · Quý 2/2026

MetricQ2'26Q1'26Q4'25Q3'25Q2'25Q1'25Q4'24Q3'24
PBT340.5363.4401.5550.0239.7283.1284.6275.3
Trading Share19.9%24.5%24.8%30.2%31.2%24.9%40.1%40.4%
Lending Share62.4%52.2%52.3%38.5%46.5%52.3%43.2%42.0%
Service & Brokerage Share17.6%23.3%22.9%31.3%22.3%22.8%16.8%17.6%
PBT Margin27.56%24.78%28.71%33.03%22.33%28.32%24.09%24.20%
Equity / Assets35.5%35.6%31.3%23.7%29.1%33.8%33.3%30.7%
Leverage1.82x1.81x2.20x3.21x2.43x1.95x2.00x2.25x

Revenue

1,235bn

Net income

273bn

Net margin

22.11%

A closer look at what is happening inside the business

A broker's statements are read with the industry's own questions: revenue mix, balance sheet, funding.

01

Is revenue sustainable?

Revenue Mix & Earnings Engine

▲

Where are current earnings coming from?

Current earnings lean more heavily on margin lending, so the quality of the revenue engine should be read together with margin-book dependence.

Margin income currently accounts for about 50.5%, trading is at 25.2%, brokerage and services together remain around 24.3% of the engine mix.

When lending is the main engine, headline quality depends more heavily on margin-book safety and funding cost.

Revaluation is currently a drag rather than a standalone headline driver.

The mix is still fairly readable for now, but case durability will depend on whether brokerage and services keep thickening.

Securities business revenue
5,764.9bn
+31.3% YoY
PBT margin
28.7%
+4.1pp
Lending Share
50.5%
+4.7pp
Brokerage Share
22.8%
+5.1pp

TTM YoY · 2026Q2

Profitability Quality & Volatility

▲▲

How strong is current profitability, and how durable is it?

Profitability currently looks relatively clean, with margins and returns strong enough not to rely heavily on unusual support.

Pre-tax margin is currently 28.7%, Return on assets is about 3.5%, revaluation accounts for −4.5% of pre-tax profit.

Headline profit is still fairly readable because returns are not being materially distorted by less durable support.

Profit appears cleaner and less dependent on revaluation.

PBT margin
28.7%
+4.1pp
Net margin
23.0%
+3.2pp
ROAA
3.5%
+1.2pp
ROAE
10.7%
+3.7pp

TTM YoY · 2026Q2

02

Are assets at risk?

Balance Sheet Quality & Asset Composition

●

Where is the balance sheet exposed, and how resilient does it look?

The balance sheet is leaning more toward the margin book, so growth quality depends meaningfully on the safety of loans and receivables.

The margin book is about 70.3% of assets, the prop book about 22.1%, liquid assets around 5.3%, equity roughly 35.5%.

A high margin-book share makes the balance sheet more sensitive to asset quality and funding cost.

The margin book is larger than the prop book.

Capital buffer is not the main weakness for now, so the key reading point shifts to which assets are driving the balance sheet.

Margin-book concentration risk

Loans and receivables are large enough to make the balance sheet more sensitive to asset quality and funding cost.

Margin book / Assets
70.3%
+13.6pp
Prop book / Assets
22.1%
−15.3pp
Liquid assets / Assets
5.3%
+1.6pp
Equity / Assets
35.5%
+6.3pp

Quarterly YoY · 2026Q2

03

Is leverage safe?

Capital, Funding & Risk Posture

▼

Are capital buffers and funding posture sufficiently safe?

Short-term funding is the tighter part of the balance sheet, even if the case is not yet in outright capital stress.

Equity currently equals 35.5% of assets, liabilities stand at 1.82x of equity, short-term borrowings are about 63.2% of assets, cash covers roughly 0.08x of short-term borrowings.

The point that needs the closest reading now is short-term funding structure rather than the earnings headline.

Risk is coming more from short-term funding, so the key reading point is not just borrowing size but cash and liquid-asset cover.

Liquidity buffer is not yet thick enough relative to short-term funding needs.

Short-term funding pressure

Short-term borrowings or cash coverage are in a range that creates more pressure on funding and liquidity posture.

Equity / Assets
35.5%
+6.3pp
Liabilities / Equity
1.82x
−0.61x
Short-term borrowings / Assets
63.2%
−6.5pp
Liquid assets / Assets
5.3%
+1.6pp

Quarterly YoY · 2026Q2

Research synthesis

What this reporting period is showing

Overall, HCM is showing a more balanced earnings mix thanks to brokerage and service income, but short-term funding remains tight enough for caution.

  • Brokerage and service income are now large enough to reduce pure dependence on trading or margin.
  • When earnings lean heavily on margin lending, margin-book asset quality and funding need closer monitoring.
  • Short-term funding structure is tight enough to become the most visible risk in the current capital posture.

Questions for the next period

  1. Track whether the margin engine can remain supportive without pulling the franchise into even heavier dependence on the margin book.

  2. Track whether the current return profile can hold as revenue mix and cost conditions normalize.

  3. Track whether the recent easing in short-term funding can hold, as liquidity buffers have only just improved versus current funding needs.

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