Analysis of business results & financial statements · Quý 1/2026
● PROVISION HEAVY
TTM NPAT rose +VND 253bn compared with the same period last year. Key positives came from higher margin lending, higher brokerage, and higher trading. Offsetting pressure came mainly from higher total costs, higher tax, and lower other fees.
See what is changing ↓- EPS TTM
- 1,294
- BVPS
- 12,244
- P/E
- 18.5x
- P/B
- 2.0x
- ROAE TTM
- 10.1%
- PBT Margin
- 27.7%
- Market price
- 23,900 20 Oct 2026
The current picture
Securities House Picture
On a TTM basis through 2026Q1, pre-tax profit is currently about 1,554.5bn, equivalent to a pre-tax margin of 27.7%, but earnings quality is still being dragged down by provisioning, while pre-tax profit is also rising clearly year on year. The revenue mix is now leaning more toward lending at 47.1% after expanding by +4.1pp, while trading is down to 27.6% after narrowing by 8.2pp; brokerage and services have reached 25.4% and improved by +4.2pp, making diversification more visible. On the balance sheet, Equity / Assets is 35.6% while Leverage is about 1.81x, indicating that buffers and funding are not yet truly roomy, with buffers thickening and leverage easing further.
Profit bridge
Vs last year · TTM
- Margin lending
- Brokerage
- Trading
- Total costs
- Tax
- Other fees
Across periods
A single data point, or a trajectory?
Latest eight quarters · Quý 1/2026
| Metric | Q1'26 | Q4'25 | Q3'25 | Q2'25 | Q1'25 | Q4'24 | Q3'24 | Q2'24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBT | 363.4 | 401.5 | 550.0 | 239.7 | 283.1 | 284.6 | 275.3 | 389.9 |
| Trading Share | 24.5% | 24.8% | 30.2% | 31.2% | 24.9% | 40.1% | 40.4% | 36.4% |
| Lending Share | 52.2% | 52.3% | 38.5% | 46.5% | 52.3% | 43.2% | 42.0% | 35.3% |
| Service & Brokerage Share | 23.3% | 22.9% | 31.3% | 22.3% | 22.8% | 16.8% | 17.6% | 28.3% |
| PBT Margin | 24.78% | 28.71% | 33.03% | 22.33% | 28.32% | 24.09% | 24.20% | 35.64% |
| Equity / Assets | 35.6% | 31.3% | 23.7% | 29.1% | 33.8% | 33.3% | 30.7% | 38.4% |
| Leverage | 1.81x | 2.20x | 3.21x | 2.43x | 1.95x | 2.00x | 2.25x | 1.60x |
Revenue
1,466bnNet income
291bnNet margin
19.83%Inside the statements
A closer look at what is happening inside the business
A broker's statements are read with the industry's own questions: revenue mix, balance sheet, funding.
Is revenue sustainable?
Revenue Mix & Earnings Engine
▲Where are current earnings coming from?
Current earnings lean more heavily on margin lending, so the quality of the revenue engine should be read together with margin-book dependence.
Margin income currently accounts for about 47.1%, trading is at 27.6%, brokerage and services together remain around 25.4% of the engine mix.
When lending is the main engine, headline quality depends more heavily on margin-book safety and funding cost.
Revaluation does not fully dominate trading income at this stage.
The revenue headline should be read together with leakage into provisioning and net margin, not just the surface mix.
Provision load is large enough relative to revenue to weaken the quality of the earnings engine.
- Securities business revenue
- 5,603.0bn +27.0% YoY
- PBT margin
- 27.7% −0.2pp
- Lending Share
- 47.1% +4.1pp
- Brokerage Share
- 24.1% +6.0pp
TTM YoY · 2026Q1
Profitability Quality & Volatility
▼How strong is current profitability, and how durable is it?
Profit remains positive, but quality is no longer clean because provisioning is materially eroding headline returns.
Pre-tax margin is currently 27.7%, Return on assets is about 3.5%, provisions equal 93.5% of pre-tax profit, revaluation accounts for 7.9% of pre-tax profit.
Headline profit needs a discount because provisioning is eating into core returns.
Profit appears cleaner and less dependent on revaluation.
Provisioning is a meaningful drag on profit.
Provision load relative to PBT is high enough to weigh on profitability quality.
- PBT margin
- 27.7% −0.2pp
- Net margin
- 22.2% −0.2pp
- ROAA
- 3.5% +1.0pp
- ROAE
- 10.1% +2.1pp
TTM YoY · 2026Q1
Are assets at risk?
Balance Sheet Quality & Asset Composition
●Where is the balance sheet exposed, and how resilient does it look?
The balance sheet is leaning more toward the margin book, so growth quality depends meaningfully on the safety of loans and receivables.
The margin book is about 69.5% of assets, the prop book about 25.0%, liquid assets around 3.0%, equity roughly 35.6%.
A high margin-book share makes the balance sheet more sensitive to asset quality and funding cost.
The margin book is larger than the prop book.
Capital buffer is not the main weakness for now, so the key reading point shifts to which assets are driving the balance sheet.
Loans and receivables are large enough to make the balance sheet more sensitive to asset quality and funding cost.
- Margin book / Assets
- 69.5% +2.6pp
- Prop book / Assets
- 25.0% +0.7pp
- Liquid assets / Assets
- 3.0% −2.2pp
- Equity / Assets
- 35.6% +1.7pp
Quarterly YoY · 2026Q1
Is leverage safe?
Capital, Funding & Risk Posture
▼Are capital buffers and funding posture sufficiently safe?
Short-term funding is the tighter part of the balance sheet, even if the case is not yet in outright capital stress.
Equity currently equals 35.6% of assets, liabilities stand at 1.81x of equity, short-term borrowings are about 62.8% of assets, cash covers roughly 0.05x of short-term borrowings.
The point that needs the closest reading now is short-term funding structure rather than the earnings headline.
Risk is coming more from short-term funding, so the key reading point is not just borrowing size but cash and liquid-asset cover.
Liquidity buffer is not yet thick enough relative to short-term funding needs.
Short-term borrowings or cash coverage are in a range that creates more pressure on funding and liquidity posture.
- Equity / Assets
- 35.6% +1.7pp
- Liabilities / Equity
- 1.81x −0.14x
- Short-term borrowings / Assets
- 62.8% −1.3pp
- Liquid assets / Assets
- 3.0% −2.2pp
Quarterly YoY · 2026Q1
In summary
Research synthesis
What this reporting period is showing
Overall, HCM is still profitable, but headline quality is being pulled down more clearly by provisioning, so earnings should be read with caution.
- Brokerage and service income are now large enough to reduce pure dependence on trading or margin.
- When earnings lean heavily on margin lending, margin-book asset quality and funding need closer monitoring.
- Provisioning is now large enough that headline profitability should be read with more caution.
What to verify next
Questions for the next period
Track whether the margin engine can remain supportive without pulling the franchise into even heavier dependence on the margin book.
Track whether provisioning pressure eases, as it remains the easiest way for headline profitability to become less durable.
Track whether the recent easing in short-term funding can hold, as liquidity buffers have only just improved versus current funding needs.
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