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iShareInvest Research

HOSE · Quý 1/2026

TDC

Kinh doanh và Phát triển Bình Dương

Analysis of business results & financial statements · Quý 1/2026

▼▼ Declining sharply

Trailing net profit reached 263.9bn, fell 197.3bn compared with the same period last year. Offsetting pressure came mainly from lower gross profit, lower financial income, higher tax, and higher selling expenses. Detailed impact is shown below:

See what is changing ↓
P/E
2.85x
P/B
0.48x
EPS
2,273
BVPS
13,576
ROE
17.9%
ROA
6.1%
Market price
6,470
19 Oct 2026

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2026Q1 basis, TDC is holding revenue at an acceptable level, but margins are eroding visibly. More notably, operating cash flow is significantly negative relative to profit — this is pressure that needs close monitoring.

Sector note: developer revenue is recognised at handover — large quarter-to-quarter swings are normal; read on a trailing-12-month basis and against the delivery schedule.

Profit bridge

Vs last year · TTM

  1. Gross profit
  2. Financial income
  3. Tax
  4. Selling expenses
  5. Other
Unit: VND bn. Green bars support profit; red bars reduce profit.

A single data point, or a trajectory?

Latest eight quarters · Quý 1/2026

MetricQ1'26Q4'25Q3'25Q2'25Q1'25Q4'24Q3'24Q2'24
Revenue231.11,162.5684.0508.1126.2763.9171.7115.0
LNST9.1122.988.946.419.7316.954.074.2
Net margin3.96%10.57%12.99%9.14%15.65%41.48%31.47%64.49%

Revenue

231bn

Net income

9bn

Net margin

3.96%

A closer look at what is happening inside the business

A company's statements are read with the questions that fit its type of business.

01

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins narrowed but earnings quality remains clean — pressure is mainly operational.

What is driving the margin?

▼▼

Net margin fell to 10.34%, losing 29.2pp. The main pressure is Gross margin fell 30.3pp, outweighing the improvement in SG&A / Revenue fell 4.1pp (with lingering pressure from Net financial result / Revenue fell 2.0pp and Other profit / Revenue fell 1.1pp).

The pressure comes from core operations — this is a concerning type of decline, not a one-off movement.

Developer revenue is recognised at handover — large swings between quarters are a property-sector feature, not a business trend. Read on a TTM basis and against the delivery schedule.

2024Q4: 763.9bn

2025Q1: 126.2bn

2025Q2: 508.1bn

2025Q3: 684.0bn

2025Q4: 1,162.5bn

2026Q1: 231.1bn

Net Margin
10.34%
−29.2pp
Gross Margin
20.47%
−30.3pp
SG&A / Revenue
7.17%
−4.1pp

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

02

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency for residential developers should be read alongside project cycles and handover timing — ROIC of 10.0% fluctuates with handover cycles.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

▼

ROIC fell to 9.95%, losing 7.9pp. That translates to 9.95 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. Although capital turnover rose 0.45x, NOPAT margin narrowed 28.3pp still pulled ROIC lower, while invested capital rose by 269bn.

For real estate developers, ROIC moves with project cycles — this is a reference signal, and the real assessment needs upcoming handover periods.

Balance Sheet

●

ROIC for residential developers swings with project cycles and handover timing — the balance sheet below adds perspective. Capital structure is relatively light for the real estate sector — liabilities at 1.65x equity, net debt at 0.65x equity.

Customer advances 394.0bn (as of 2026Q1) — deposits on units/projects not yet handed over: revenue already sold but not yet recognised, a lead indicator of profit in upcoming delivery quarters.

Customer advances: 394.0bn · YoY −16.0bn · QoQ −75.9bn

Locked-in revenue: ~0.61x quarters of revenue (TTM)

Inventory pre-sold: 109.68%

Project inventory splits in two at 2026Q1: 359.2bn near-delivery stock (short-term) and 14.7bn construction-in-progress (long-term). Weighted toward near-delivery — the revenue-recognition cycle is approaching.

Near-delivery (ST): 359.2bn (96.07%)

Construction-in-progress (LT): 14.7bn (3.93%)

For a developer the question is not debt-to-equity but whether borrowings are backed by the project pipeline. At 2026Q1, net debt 1,129.4bn vs project value 373.9bn — ratio 302.06% — net debt is 3.02x the project pipeline, far beyond the asset layer that should back it. Leverage sits in high-risk territory; repayment depends on sources outside the current pipeline.

Net debt / project value: 302.06%

None

Over the last 12 months, working capital released 0.0bn of cash.

DuPont

What drives ROE?

Net margin 10.3% -29.2pp
Asset turnover 0.60x +0.30x
Financial leverage 2.94x -1.03x
ROE 18.1% -28.5pp

ROE fell from 46.6% to 18.1% — net margin weakened the most, though asset turnover still provided support.

03

Is financial risk significant?

Leverage is safe but FCF is negative at 333.5bn due to capex of 33.2bn — an investment choice, not an urgent risk.

Leverage & Liquidity

●

Leverage is balanced for now, with net debt / equity at 0.65x and interest coverage at 2.26x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 91.0% of total debt, cash equals 2.2% of debt, and total debt stands at 1,155.3bn.

Leverage for residential developers should be read alongside project cycles, development inventory, and handover timing.

Short-term refinancing pressure is meaningful

Short-term debt accounts for 91.0% of total debt, raising near-term refinancing needs.

Cash buffer is thin relative to debt

Cash / debt stands at 2.2%, leaving limited liquidity buffer to monitor.

Net Debt / Equity
0.65x
−0.66x
Interest Coverage
2.26x
−0.79x
Cash / Debt
2.2%
−1.3pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt
91.0%
+4.7pp

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Cash Flow

▼

Operating cash flow reached -185.7bn in 2025, against investing cash flow of 276.3bn.

Post-investment cash flow was positive +90.7bn. Financing cash flow was negative +8.9bn.

CFO / net income was −1,14 lần.

After spending +33.2bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −333.5bn.

For residential developers, FCF and CFO swing with project cycles — negative during investment phases and positive at handover — not representative of single-year efficiency.

Research synthesis

What this reporting period is showing

The business is under real pressure, but the current picture has not turned broadly adverse. A notable area has clearly weakened, making the near-term outlook hard to call bright; even so, other parts of the business are still holding up, with margins remain under pressure remaining the main constraint, with net margin down 29.2 pp. The next watchpoint is capital efficiency, with ROIC at 10.0%. The main offsetting support comes from earnings conversion is confirmed, with CFO/NI at −1.14x.

  • Improvement: earnings conversion looks more confirmed, with CFO / net income at −1.14x.
  • Watchpoint: Capital efficiency needs cycle context.
  • Key risk: profitability remains under pressure, with trailing-12M net margin at 10.34% after a 29.2pp decline versus the same period last year.

Questions for the next period

  1. Durability of revenue growth after the current +119,7% YoY pace.

  2. Ability to hold margins around the current 10.34% level.

  3. Cash-flow quality, with operating cash flow currently at -185.7bn in 2025.

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