RDP

Rạng Đông Holding ·UPCOM ·2024Q2

▼▼ Declining sharply

Margins remain under pressure Net margin −2.49%, −3.13pp YoY
Price
Latest close
P/E
P/B
EPS -938
BVPS 5,692
ROE -9.7%
ROA -2.1%
Profit Margin -2.3%
Asset Turnover 0.91x
Equity Mult. 4.62x

TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2024Q2 basis, RDP posted a very sharp profit drop versus the same period, showing that pressure has clearly fed through to the bottom line — profit momentum has been slowing across consecutive periods. More notably, profit relies heavily on non-core sources while operating cash flow is negative — these two factors together suggest earnings quality needs cautious evaluation.

TTM REVENUE
VND 1,988bn
−32.7%YoY
NET MARGIN
−2.49%
−3.1ppYoY
TTM NET PROFIT
−VND 50bn
−364.7%YoY
Net financial result / PBT
157.3%
affects earnings quality
Metric Q2'24 Q1'24 Q4'23 Q3'23 Q2'23 Q1'23 Q4'22 Q3'22 Q2'22 Q1'22 Q4'21 Q3'21
Revenue 246.6 506.2 621.2 614.1 776.2 580.8 766.5 828.9 554.3 690.8 580.6 679.8
Growth -51% -19% +1% -21% +34% -24% -8% +50% -20% +19% -15%
Net Income -65.7 1.1 -15.3 30.3 12.2 0.6 4.2 1.7 6.6 6.9 -1.1 14.0
Net Margin -26.63% 0.22% -2.46% 4.93% 1.57% 0.10% 0.55% 0.21% 1.19% 1.00% -0.19% 2.06%

Drivers of RDP's profit

TTM

Net profit attributable to parent declined vs last year, mainly due to lower gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Financial income ↑ 52.4bn
Minority interests ↓ 11.7bn
Administrative expenses ↓ 11.6bn
Finance costs ↓ 5.8bn
Gross profit ↓ 118.0bn
Other profit ↓ 24.5bn
TTM

Net profit attributable to parent declined vs prior quarter, mainly due to lower gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Finance costs ↓ 12.1bn
Gross profit ↓ 79.7bn
Administrative expenses ↑ 11.7bn

Financial Highlights

Detailed analysis of each financial dimension

ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

2023Q2 3.1% = 0.6% × 1.26 × 3.90
2024Q2 -10.5% = -2.5% × 0.91 × 4.62

ROE fell from 3.1% to -10.5% — asset turnover weakened the most, though leverage still provided support.

Net margin: -2.5% -3.1pp Asset turnover: 0.91x -0.35x Leverage: 4.62x +0.72x

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins are under pressure while earnings still rely significantly on non-core sources.

very positive positive stable watch under pressure

What is driving the margin?

Net margin fell to -2.49%, losing 3.1pp. The main pressure comes from Gross margin fell 1.6pp and SG&A / Revenue rose 1.2pp (in addition, Net financial result / Revenue rose 1.0pp added support while Other profit / Revenue fell 1.2pp remained a drag).

The pressure comes from core operations — this is a concerning type of decline, not a one-off movement.

Profitability trend

Net Margin -2.49% −3.1pp
Gross Margin 7.39% −1.6pp
SG&A / Revenue 5.26% +1.2pp
Non-core / Revenue -4.03% −0.2pp

TTM YoY · 2023Q2 -> 2024Q2

Watchpoints

Financial result is supporting margin

Margin support from financial result remains high (212.0% of PBT) — sustainability should be monitored.

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency is declining — check whether the drag is from margins or turnover.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

ROIC fell to -0.69%, losing 1.6pp. That translates to -0.69 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. Both NOPAT margin narrowed 1.2pp and capital turnover fell 0.49x, with invested capital easing slightly by 80bn — pressure came from both operational efficiency and asset efficiency.

Pressure came from the margin side — core operations are weakening, not just a temporary asset-management issue.

Watchpoints

ROIC remains low

ROIC is currently -0.69% — below the typical cost-of-capital threshold; worth tracking whether upcoming periods can rise above this level.

CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND

TTM YoY · 2023Q2 -> 2024Q2

ROIC -0.69% −1.6pp
NOPAT Margin -0.59% −1.2pp
Capital Turnover 1.17x −0.49x
Average Invested Capital 1,701.8bn −80.0bn

Balance Sheet

ROIC declined — the balance sheet shows how capital is being deployed. Leverage is very high, with clear pressure on the capital structure — liabilities at 2.62x equity, net debt at 4.34x equity.

Inventory ended the period at 879.0bn, roughly 35.7% of total assets.

Over the last 12 months, working capital released 161.8bn of cash, mainly thanks to lower receivables and lower inventories.

Working Capital Drivers

TTM YoY · 2023Q2 -> 2024Q2

Receivables decreased → higher CFO: +70.3bn
Inventories decreased → higher CFO: +32.4bn
Payables increased → higher CFO: +59.1bn

Working Capital Efficiency

The inventory build-up noted above is reflected in a longer cash cycle. Cash conversion cycle lengthened by 53.7 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO rose 52.7 days, DSO rose 15.5 days, and DPO rose 14.5 days.

Working capital cycle lengthened mainly due to slower inventory turnover — more capital is being tied up in inventory.

Watchpoints

Cash conversion cycle remains stretched

CCC stands at 171.4 days, suggesting that working capital remains tied up for a relatively long operating cycle.

Receivables collection is slowing

DSO increased by +15.5 days, pointing to slower receivables turnover.

Working Capital Efficiency

TTM YoY · 2023Q2 -> 2024Q2

Receivables 67.0 days +15.5 days
Inventory 165.3 days +52.7 days
Payables 60.8 days +14.5 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 171.4 days +53.7 days

Is financial risk significant?

High leverage combined with negative operating cash flow — this area needs close monitoring.

Leverage & Liquidity

Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 4.34x and interest coverage only at -0.14x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 83.9% of total debt, cash equals 1.7% of debt, and total debt stands at 1,232.3bn.

Watchpoints

Net leverage is elevated

Net debt / equity stands at 4.34x, increasing balance-sheet pressure.

Interest coverage is thin

Interest coverage is -0.14x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.

Leverage and liquidity trend

Net Debt / Equity 4.34x +2.47x
Interest Coverage -0.14x −0.36x
Cash / Debt 1.7% −0.5pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt 83.9% +6.4pp
CFO / NI -0.54x +16.56x

TTM YoY · 2023Q2 -> 2024Q2

Cash Flow

High leverage combined with cash flow below reveals the actual liquidity pressure. Operating cash flow reached -93.5bn in 2022, against investing cash flow of -93.6bn.

Post-investment cash flow was negative +187.1bn. Financing cash flow was positive +207.5bn.

CFO / net income was -0.54x.

After spending +7.4bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of +17.7bn.

Cash Conversion

TTM Cash Conversion · 2023Q2 -> 2024Q2

CFO TTM 25.1bn +205.5bn
Cash Capex 7.4bn −4.7bn
FCF TTM +17.7bn +210.1bn

Investment Takeaway

The business is showing a few weaker signals, but the current magnitude is not yet clear enough to conclude that this is a broader weakening phase. The brighter spot is cash generation. Even so, earnings quality still needs closer monitoring because net financial result remains elevated. The main risk still sits in core profitability, with net margin down 3.1 pp.

Improvement: cash generation is recovering, with trailing-12M FCF improving by 210.1bn versus the same period last year.

Watchpoint: the earnings mix still needs monitoring, with net financial result still accounting for 157.3% of PBT and CFO / net income currently at -0.54x.

Key risk: profitability remains under pressure, with trailing-12M net margin at -2.49% after a 3.1pp decline versus the same period last year.

Statement Data

Item 2022 2021 2020
Net Revenue
2,840.5 2,711.8 2,745.5
Cost of Goods Sold
2,612.0 0.0 0.0
Gross Profit
228.5 225.7 196.8
Financial Expenses
103.2 -95.7 -98.3
Selling Expenses
36.9 -29.0 -33.6
General and Administrative Expenses
77.7 -66.9 -64.7
Operating Profit
22.7 39.3 9.5
Profit Before Tax
21.2 55.2 12.2
Net Income
12.5 40.3 6.6
Profit Attributable to Parent
8.0 35.6 4.3
Earnings per Share
163.00 747.21 196.00

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