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iShareInvest Research

HOSE · Quý 1/2026

VPH

Vạn Phát Hưng

Analysis of business results & financial statements · Quý 1/2026

▼▼ Declining sharply

Trailing net profit reached 20.1bn, fell 160.9bn compared with the same period last year. Key positives came from lower finance costs. Offsetting pressure came mainly from lower financial income. Detailed impact is shown below:

See what is changing ↓
P/E
-12.51x
P/B
0.25x
EPS
-211
BVPS
10,672
ROE
-1.9%
ROA
-1.1%
Market price
2,640
16 Oct 2026

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2026Q1 basis, VPH is holding revenue at an acceptable level, but margins are eroding visibly — margins have been compressing consistently over multiple periods. More notably, a significant portion of profit is supported by non-core sources, further affecting earnings quality.

Sector note: developer revenue is recognised at handover — large quarter-to-quarter swings are normal; read on a trailing-12-month basis and against the delivery schedule.

Profit bridge

Vs last year · TTM

  1. Finance costs
  2. Other
  3. Financial income
Unit: VND bn. Green bars support profit; red bars reduce profit.

A single data point, or a trajectory?

Latest eight quarters · Quý 1/2026

MetricQ1'26Q4'25Q3'25Q2'25Q1'25Q4'24Q3'24Q2'24
Revenue35.453.238.633.79.212.318.48.8
LNST-9.4-0.3-10.2-0.1-9.2-10.9183.3-22.3
Net margin-26.65%-0.65%-26.36%-0.36%-100.44%-88.90%998.02%-253.07%

Revenue

35bn

Net income

-9bn

Net margin

-26.65%

A closer look at what is happening inside the business

A company's statements are read with the questions that fit its type of business.

01

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins are under pressure while earnings still rely significantly on non-core sources.

What is driving the margin?

▼▼

Net margin fell to −12.47%, losing 302.1pp. The main pressure is Gross margin fell 0.0pp, outweighing the improvement in SG&A / Revenue fell 148.8pp (with lingering pressure from Net financial result / Revenue fell 513.7pp and Other profit / Revenue fell 0.1pp).

The pressure comes from non-core items while core operations hold their rhythm — margin has a basis to recover once this factor passes.

Developer revenue is recognised at handover — large swings between quarters are a property-sector feature, not a business trend. Read on a TTM basis and against the delivery schedule.

2024Q4: 12.3bn

2025Q1: 9.2bn

2025Q2: 33.7bn

2025Q3: 38.6bn

2025Q4: 53.2bn

2026Q1: 35.4bn

Net Margin
−12.47%
−302.1pp
Gross Margin
13.06%
−0.0pp
SG&A / Revenue
23.43%
−148.8pp
Non-core / Revenue
−1.46%
−513.8pp

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Financial result share remains high

Even though contribution decreased by 513.8pp, financial result still accounts for 65.9% of PBT — earnings durability should be monitored in coming periods.

02

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency for residential developers should be read alongside project cycles and handover timing — ROIC of −1.7% fluctuates with handover cycles.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

▼

ROIC fell to −1.69%, losing 12.5pp. That translates to −1.69 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. Although capital turnover rose 0.08x, NOPAT margin narrowed 360.7pp still pulled ROIC lower, with invested capital easing slightly by 124bn.

For real estate developers, ROIC moves with project cycles — this is a reference signal, and the real assessment needs upcoming handover periods.

Balance Sheet

●

ROIC for residential developers swings with project cycles and handover timing — the balance sheet below adds perspective. Capital structure is notably light for the real estate sector — liabilities at 0.91x equity, net debt at 0.57x equity.

Customer advances 137.3bn (as of 2026Q1) — deposits on units/projects not yet handed over: revenue already sold but not yet recognised, a lead indicator of profit in upcoming delivery quarters.

Customer advances: 137.3bn · YoY +2.7bn · QoQ −1.7bn

Locked-in revenue: ~3.41x quarters of revenue (TTM)

Inventory pre-sold: 69.58%

Project inventory splits in two at 2026Q1: 197.3bn near-delivery stock (short-term) and 5.8bn construction-in-progress (long-term). Weighted toward near-delivery — the revenue-recognition cycle is approaching.

Near-delivery (ST): 197.3bn (97.13%)

Construction-in-progress (LT): 5.8bn (2.87%)

For a developer the question is not debt-to-equity but whether borrowings are backed by the project pipeline. At 2026Q1, net debt 576.5bn vs project value 203.1bn — ratio 283.84% — net debt is 2.84x the project pipeline, far beyond the asset layer that should back it. Leverage sits in high-risk territory; repayment depends on sources outside the current pipeline.

Net debt / project value: 283.84%

None

Over the last 12 months, working capital absorbed 465.7bn of cash, mainly because of higher receivables. Part of that drag was offset by lower inventories and higher payables.

DuPont

What drives ROE?

Net margin -12.5% -302.1pp
Asset turnover 0.08x +0.06x
Financial leverage 1.81x -0.18x
ROE -1.9% -11.6pp

ROE fell from 13.5% to −1.9% — dragged by net margin and leverage.

03

Is financial risk significant?

Leverage is safe but FCF is negative at 502.9bn due to capex of 4.8bn — an investment choice, not an urgent risk.

Leverage & Liquidity

▼

Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 0.57x and interest coverage only at −0.75x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, cash equals 10.3% of debt, and total debt stands at 643.0bn.

Leverage for residential developers should be read alongside project cycles, development inventory, and handover timing.

Interest coverage is thin

Interest coverage is −0.75x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.

Short-term refinancing pressure is meaningful

Short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, raising near-term refinancing needs.

Net Debt / Equity
0.57x
+0.40x
Interest Coverage
−0.75x
−2.04x
Cash / Debt
10.3%
−31.3pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt
100.0%
0.0pp

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Cash Flow

▼

Operating cash flow reached -430.5bn in 2025, against investing cash flow of 188.8bn.

Post-investment cash flow was negative +241.7bn. Financing cash flow was positive +91.9bn.

CFO / net income was 24,83 lần.

After spending +4.8bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −502.9bn.

For residential developers, FCF and CFO swing with project cycles — negative during investment phases and positive at handover — not representative of single-year efficiency.

Research synthesis

What this reporting period is showing

The business is showing a few weaker signals, but the current magnitude is not yet clear enough to conclude that this is a broader weakening phase. Even so, earnings quality still needs closer monitoring because net financial result remains elevated. The main risk still sits in core profitability, with net margin down 302.1 pp.

  • Watchpoint: cash flow is currently keeping pace with accounting earnings, with CFO / net income at 24.83x. Even so, net financial result still accounts for 39.0% of PBT, so the earnings mix still needs monitoring.
  • Key risk: profitability remains under pressure, with trailing-12M net margin at -12.47% after a 302.1pp decline versus the same period last year.

Questions for the next period

  1. Durability of revenue growth after the current +230,8% YoY pace.

  2. Ability to hold margins around the current -12.47% level.

  3. Cash-flow quality, with operating cash flow currently at -430.5bn in 2025.

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