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HNX · Quý 4/2025

TMB

Kinh doanh Than Miền Bắc - Vinacomin

Analysis of business results & financial statements · Quý 4/2025

▼▼ Declining sharply

Trailing net profit reached 75.9bn, fell 60.0bn compared with the same period last year. Key positives came from lower selling expenses, lower finance costs, lower tax, and better other profit. Offsetting pressure came mainly from lower gross profit. Detailed impact is shown below:

See what is changing ↓
P/E
8.64x
P/B
0.75x
EPS
5,056
BVPS
58,063
ROE
9.1%
ROA
2.1%
Market price
43,700
16 Oct 2026

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2025Q4 basis, TMB is losing revenue quickly, though margins have not been hit proportionally yet. More notably, a significant portion of profit is supported by non-core sources, further affecting earnings quality.

Profit bridge

Vs last year · TTM

  1. Selling expenses
  2. Finance costs
  3. Tax
  4. Other profit
  5. Gross profit
Unit: VND bn. Green bars support profit; red bars reduce profit.

A single data point, or a trajectory?

Latest eight quarters · Quý 4/2025

MetricQ4'25Q3'25Q2'25Q1'25Q4'24Q3'24Q2'24Q1'24
Revenue6,091.65,348.49,013.29,734.09,577.28,506.011,484.512,151.2
LNST8.0-2.830.440.327.526.454.227.7
Net margin0.13%-0.05%0.34%0.41%0.29%0.31%0.47%0.23%

Revenue

6,092bn

Net income

8bn

Net margin

0.13%

A closer look at what is happening inside the business

A company's statements are read with the questions that fit its type of business.

01

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins are under pressure while earnings still rely significantly on non-core sources.

What is driving the margin?

●

Net margin stands at 0.25%, broadly flat versus the same period. Supportive factors and pressure points are offsetting one another.

Margin is nearly flat but the underlying components are moving — this is a transitional phase, more time is needed to see the real trend.

Net Margin
0.25%
−0.1pp
Gross Margin
4.17%
+0.5pp
SG&A / Revenue
3.76%
+0.7pp
Non-core / Revenue
−0.03%
+0.1pp

TTM YoY · 2024Q4 -> 2025Q4

Non-core sources is supporting margin

Margin support from non-core sources remains high (72.4% of PBT) — sustainability should be monitored.

02

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency is declining — check whether the drag is from margins or turnover.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

▼

ROIC fell to 0.83%, losing 1.9pp. That translates to 0.83 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. The main pressure came from capital turnover fell 1.49x — capital is being absorbed faster than revenue is being generated; while invested capital contracted by 577bn.

Pressure came from turnover — added capital has not been absorbed quickly enough, a typical investment-cycle dynamic.

ROIC remains low

ROIC is currently 0.83% — below the typical cost-of-capital threshold; worth tracking whether upcoming periods can rise above this level.

Balance Sheet

▲

ROIC declined — the balance sheet shows how capital is being deployed. Leverage is elevated, requiring monitoring — liabilities at 2.81x equity, net debt at 1.27x equity.

Inventory ended the period at 2,515.2bn, roughly 75.8% of total assets.

Over the last 12 months, working capital released 1,239.8bn of cash, mainly thanks to lower receivables and lower inventories.

Working Capital Efficiency

▼

The inventory build-up noted above is reflected in a longer cash cycle. Cash conversion cycle lengthened by 3.3 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO rose 8.4 days, DSO fell 1.7 days, and DPO rose 3.4 days.

Working capital cycle lengthened mainly due to slower inventory turnover — more capital is being tied up in inventory.

Cash conversion cycle is lengthening

CCC is up by +3.3 days, indicating weaker working-capital turnover versus the prior year.

Inventory turnover is slowing

DIO increased by +8.4 days, suggesting more capital is being tied up in inventories.

DuPont

What drives ROE?

Net margin 0.3% -0.1pp
Asset turnover 8.28x -2.26x
Financial leverage 4.39x -0.80x
ROE 9.1% -8.7pp

ROE fell from 17.8% to 9.1% — dragged by asset turnover and leverage.

03

Is financial risk significant?

Financial risk is low — leverage is safe, both CFO and FCF are positive.

Leverage & Liquidity

▼▼

Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 1.27x and interest coverage only at 0.23x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, cash equals 6.0% of debt, and total debt stands at 1,172.2bn.

Net leverage is elevated

Net debt / equity stands at 1.27x, increasing balance-sheet pressure.

Interest coverage is thin

Interest coverage is 0.23x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.

Net Debt / Equity
1.27x
−1.60x
Interest Coverage
0.23x
−0.46x
Cash / Debt
6.0%
+5.2pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt
100.0%
0.0pp

TTM YoY · 2024Q4 -> 2025Q4

Cash Flow

▲▲

With safe leverage noted above, cash flow below shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 1,223.6bn in 2025, against investing cash flow of -27.7bn.

Post-investment cash flow was positive +1,196.0bn. Financing cash flow was negative +1,143.9bn.

CFO / net income was 16,13 lần.

After spending +29.9bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of +1,193.8bn.

Research synthesis

What this reporting period is showing

The business is under real pressure, but the current picture has not turned broadly adverse. A notable area has clearly weakened, making the near-term outlook hard to call bright; even so, other parts of the business are still holding up, with capital efficiency remains weak remaining the main constraint, with ROIC at 0.8%. The next watchpoint is the earnings mix, when non-core contribution is −79.9%. The main offsetting support comes from cash generation.

  • Improvement: cash generation is recovering, with trailing-12M FCF improving by 1,040.2bn versus the same period last year.
  • Watchpoint: cash flow is currently keeping pace with accounting earnings, with CFO / net income at 16.13x. Even so, net financial result still accounts for −79.9% of PBT, so the earnings mix still needs monitoring.
  • Key risk: Capital efficiency remains weak.

Questions for the next period

  1. Ability to stabilize revenue after a −27,6% YoY decline.

  2. Ability to hold margins around the current 0.25% level.

  3. Cash-flow quality, with operating cash flow currently at 1,223.6bn in 2025.

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