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iShareInvest Research

HOSE · Quý 3/2025

TCH

Đầu tư Dịch vụ Tài chính Hoàng Huy

Analysis of business results & financial statements · Quý 3/2025

▲▲ Improving positively

Trailing net profit reached 347.9bn, fell 487.9bn compared with the same period last year. Key positives came from lower minority interests, lower tax, and lower selling expenses. Offsetting pressure came mainly from lower gross profit, lower financial income, weaker other profit, and higher administrative expenses. Detailed impact is shown below:

See what is changing ↓
P/E
23.04x
P/B
0.72x
EPS
486
BVPS
15,646
ROE
2.6%
ROA
2.0%
Market price
11,200
16 Oct 2026

What Is Changing

On a Năm 2023 basis, TCH is improving on both revenue and margins, suggesting current growth is backed by both scale and operating efficiency — profit is at an all-time high. However, a significant portion of profit is supported by non-core sources, making the picture not entirely clear.

Sector note: developer revenue is recognised at handover — large quarter-to-quarter swings are normal; read on a trailing-12-month basis and against the delivery schedule.

Profit bridge

Vs last year · TTM

  1. Minority interests
  2. Tax
  3. Selling expenses
  4. Gross profit
  5. Financial income
  6. Other profit
  7. Administrative expenses
Unit: VND bn. Green bars support profit; red bars reduce profit.

A single data point, or a trajectory?

Latest eight quarters · Quý 3/2025

MetricQ3'25Q2'25Q1'25Q2'24Q4'23Q3'23Q2'23Q1'23
Revenue317.0346.0390.41,413.61,621.81,613.1253.0316.8
LNST51.456.356.2263.7455.3459.596.8170.0
Net margin16.21%16.29%14.40%18.66%28.07%28.49%38.28%53.67%

Revenue

317bn

Net income

51bn

Net margin

16.21%

A closer look at what is happening inside the business

A company's statements are read with the questions that fit its type of business.

01

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins are broadly flat — earnings quality is the factor to watch.

What is driving the margin?

●

Track net margin changes and the operating components against the same period last year.

None

Developer revenue is recognised at handover — large swings between quarters are a property-sector feature, not a business trend. Read on a TTM basis and against the delivery schedule.

2023Q3: 1,613.1bn

2023Q4: 1,621.8bn

2024Q2: 1,413.6bn

2025Q1: 390.4bn

2025Q2: 346.0bn

2025Q3: 317.0bn

Net Margin
32.69%
+9.7pp
Gross Margin
31.59%
−6.6pp
SG&A / Revenue
12.89%
+4.0pp
Financial result is supporting margin

Margin support from financial result remains high (50.1% of PBT) — sustainability should be monitored.

02

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency for residential developers should be read alongside project cycles and handover timing — ROIC fluctuates with handover cycles.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

●

Track how much operating profit the business generates on invested capital.

For real estate developers, ROIC moves with project cycles — this is a reference signal, and the real assessment needs upcoming handover periods.

Balance Sheet

●

ROIC for residential developers swings with project cycles and handover timing — the balance sheet below adds perspective. Capital structure is notably light for the real estate sector — liabilities at 0.18x equity, with a net cash position equivalent to 0.13x equity.

Customer advances 5,349.6bn (as of 2025Q3) — deposits on units/projects not yet handed over: revenue already sold but not yet recognised, a lead indicator of profit in upcoming delivery quarters. Advances rose 391.52% YoY — strong sales locking in future revenue.

Customer advances: 5,349.6bn · YoY +4,261.3bn · QoQ +2,262.7bn

Locked-in revenue: ~8.67x quarters of revenue (TTM)

Inventory pre-sold: 51.43%

Project inventory splits in two at 2025Q3: 10,402.6bn near-delivery stock (short-term) and 5.9bn construction-in-progress (long-term). Weighted toward near-delivery — the revenue-recognition cycle is approaching.

Near-delivery (ST): 10,402.6bn (99.94%)

Construction-in-progress (LT): 5.9bn (0.06%)

For a developer the question is not debt-to-equity but whether borrowings are backed by the project pipeline. At 2025Q3, net debt 1,900.9bn vs project value 10,408.5bn — ratio −18.26%; the company is in a net-cash position.

Net debt / project value: −18.26%

Development inventory ended the period at 9,836.7bn, about 67.3% of total assets — reflecting projects in progress awaiting handover.

Over the last 12 months, working capital released 3,422.1bn of cash, mainly thanks to higher payables. Pressure from higher receivables and higher inventories only partly offset that benefit.

03

Is financial risk significant?

Check leverage, liquidity, and cash-flow conversion.

Leverage & Liquidity

▲

Track net leverage, interest coverage, and the liquidity buffer on the balance sheet.

At present, cash equals 587.9% of debt and total debt stands at 390.0bn.

Leverage for residential developers should be read alongside project cycles, development inventory, and handover timing.

Net Debt / Equity
−0.13x
Interest Coverage
None
Cash / Debt
587.9%
Short-term Debt / Total Debt
None

Cash Flow

●

Operating cash flow reached -4,540.0bn in 2023, against investing cash flow of 5,121.6bn.

Post-investment cash flow was positive +581.6bn. Financing cash flow was negative +458.8bn.

CFO / net income was 10,59 lần.

After spending +19.3bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of +3,665.7bn.

For residential developers, FCF and CFO swing with project cycles — negative during investment phases and positive at handover — not representative of single-year efficiency.

Research synthesis

What this reporting period is showing

The business is showing brightening signals, but the improvement is still early and not yet thick enough to read as a confirmed trend. The brighter spot is balance-sheet flexibility, with net cash/equity at about −0.13x. Even so, earnings quality still needs closer monitoring because net financial result remains elevated.

  • Improvement: the balance sheet remains flexible, with a net cash position equivalent to 0.13x of equity.
  • Watchpoint: cash flow is currently keeping pace with accounting earnings, with CFO / net income at 10.59x. Even so, net financial result still accounts for 34.3% of PBT, so the earnings mix still needs monitoring.

Questions for the next period

  1. Durability of revenue growth after the current +81,7% YoY pace.

  2. Ability to hold margins around the current 32.69% level.

  3. Cash-flow quality, with operating cash flow currently at -4,540.0bn in 2023.

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