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iShareInvest Research

HOSE · Quý 1/2026

TMP

Thủy điện Thác Mơ

Analysis of business results & financial statements · Quý 1/2026

▼▼ Declining sharply

Trailing net profit reached 329.4bn, fell 33.7bn compared with the same period last year. Key positives came from higher financial income, lower tax, and lower finance costs. Offsetting pressure came mainly from lower gross profit and higher administrative expenses. Detailed impact is shown below:

See what is changing ↓
P/E
10.67x
P/B
2.00x
EPS
4,706
BVPS
25,049
ROE
19.7%
ROA
16.2%
Market price
50,200
19 Oct 2026

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2026Q1 basis, TMP is retaining some revenue, but margins are collapsing sharply — margins have been compressing consistently over multiple periods. Costs or the profit mix are deteriorating faster than revenue is declining — this is the factor to watch ahead of everything else.

Profit bridge

Vs last year · TTM

  1. Financial income
  2. Tax
  3. Finance costs
  4. Gross profit
  5. Administrative expenses
Unit: VND bn. Green bars support profit; red bars reduce profit.

A single data point, or a trajectory?

Latest eight quarters · Quý 1/2026

MetricQ1'26Q4'25Q3'25Q2'25Q1'25Q4'24Q3'24Q2'24
Revenue159.6193.2239.6186.0134.7232.9256.0162.7
LNST65.675.7108.885.452.1109.2131.774.9
Net margin41.07%39.18%45.44%45.95%38.70%46.89%51.45%46.05%

Revenue

160bn

Net income

66bn

Net margin

41.07%

A closer look at what is happening inside the business

A company's statements are read with the questions that fit its type of business.

01

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins narrowed but earnings quality remains clean — pressure is mainly operational.

What is driving the margin?

▼▼

Net margin fell to 43.11%, losing 3.7pp. The main pressure comes from Gross margin fell 7.7pp and SG&A / Revenue rose 1.1pp (with additional support from Net financial result / Revenue rose 2.7pp).

The pressure comes from core operations — this is a concerning type of decline, not a one-off movement.

Net Margin
43.11%
−3.7pp
Gross Margin
51.19%
−7.7pp
SG&A / Revenue
8.72%
+1.1pp

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

02

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency for utilities should be read alongside regulated tariffs and long-cycle depreciation — ROIC of 17.8% reflects a large fixed-asset base.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

▼

ROIC fell to 17.84%, losing 3.7pp. That translates to 17.84 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. The main pressure came from NOPAT margin narrowed 3.7pp, outweighing the movement in capital turnover; while invested capital rose by 173bn.

For utilities, ROIC reflects returns on a large fixed-asset base — this is a reference signal and should be read alongside regulated tariffs.

Balance Sheet

▲

ROIC for utilities reflects a large fixed-asset base and regulated tariffs — the balance sheet below adds perspective. Capital structure is conservative with low leverage — liabilities at 0.33x equity, net debt at 0.11x equity.

None

Over the last 12 months, working capital released 99.6bn of cash, mainly thanks to lower receivables and higher payables. Pressure from higher inventories only partly offset that benefit.

Working Capital Efficiency

▲

Working capital is being managed more efficiently, supporting overall capital efficiency. Cash conversion cycle improved by 36.7 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO fell 0.3 days, DSO fell 30.3 days, and DPO rose 6.0 days.

All 3 drivers (collection, inventory, payables) are improving — working capital turnover is strengthening across the board.

For utilities, working capital cycle reflects regulated pricing mechanics and long-term settlement contracts — DSO/DIO/DPO should be treated as contextual signals rather than pure efficiency indicators.

Cash conversion cycle remains stretched

CCC stands at 129.3 days, suggesting that working capital remains tied up for a relatively long operating cycle.

DuPont

What drives ROE?

Net margin 43.1% -3.7pp
Asset turnover 0.38x -0.03x
Financial leverage 1.22x -0.07x
ROE 20.1% -4.9pp

ROE fell from 25.0% to 20.1% — dragged by asset turnover and net margin together.

03

Is financial risk significant?

Financial risk is low — leverage is safe, both CFO and FCF are positive.

Leverage & Liquidity

▲

Leverage looks fairly comfortable, with net debt / equity at 0.11x and interest coverage at 20.89x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 15.8% of total debt, cash equals 24.9% of debt, and total debt stands at 247.0bn.

Leverage for utilities reflects long-term capital needs for fixed assets and recovery through regulated pricing — elevated leverage is structural to the industry.

Cash buffer is thin relative to debt

Cash / debt stands at 24.9%, leaving limited liquidity buffer to monitor.

Net Debt / Equity
0.11x
−0.04x
Interest Coverage
20.89x
+1.59x
Cash / Debt
24.9%
+1.2pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt
15.8%
+2.8pp

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Cash Flow

●

With safe leverage noted above, cash flow below shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 514.8bn in 2025, against investing cash flow of -320.0bn.

Post-investment cash flow was positive +194.8bn. Financing cash flow was negative +142.5bn.

CFO / net income was 1,33 lần.

After spending +78.6bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of +361.0bn.

For utilities, high capex and long investment cycles are structural — short-term FCF volatility does not reflect long-term cash generation through regulated pricing.

Research synthesis

What this reporting period is showing

The business is under real pressure, but the current picture has not turned broadly adverse. A notable area has clearly weakened, making the near-term outlook hard to call bright; even so, other parts of the business are still holding up, with margins remain under pressure remaining the main constraint, with net margin down 3.7 pp. The next watchpoint is capital efficiency, with ROIC at 17.8%. The main offsetting support comes from earnings conversion is confirmed, with CFO/NI at 1.33x.

  • Improvement: earnings conversion looks more confirmed, with CFO / net income at 1.33x.
  • Watchpoint: Capital efficiency needs cycle context.
  • Key risk: profitability remains under pressure, with trailing-12M net margin at 43.11% after a 3.7pp decline versus the same period last year.

Questions for the next period

  1. Ability to stabilize revenue after a −1,0% YoY decline.

  2. Ability to hold margins around the current 43.11% level.

  3. Cash-flow quality, with operating cash flow currently at 514.8bn in 2025.

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