Strategy
09 July 2026
(continue on page 2)
The most consequential change is the addition of the FTSE Vietnam 30 Index (FTSE VN30 Index) to the FTSE Vietnam Index Series, effective from the September 2026 review, with simultaneous removal from the FTSE Frontier Index Series. This effectively expands the Vietnam Index Series from two indices, the FTSE VN All-Share Index and FTSE VN Index, to three, adding the FTSE VN30 Index as a primary benchmark tracking the 30 largest and most liquid HSX-listed stocks.
In our view, this restructuring is a progressive step as Vietnam transitions toward Emerging Market status, positioning the FTSE VN30 as one of FTSE Russell's core reference benchmarks for the country going forward. Currently, no ETF tracks the FTSE VN Index directly, while the FTSE VN30 Index already underpins two listed vehicles, the Fubon FTSE Vietnam ETF (AUM: USD382mn) and the CSOP FTSE Vietnam 30 ETF (AUM: USD5.6mn).
Other selected discussion points of the day
- Vietnam prioritizes green finance and carbon market
- HCMC launches 150-day drive for 10%+ growth
- US strikes Iran, restores oil sanctions
Other selected discussion points of the day
- Vietnam prioritizes green finance and carbon market
- HCMC launches 150-day drive for 10%+ growth
- US strikes Iran, restores oil sanctions
Vietnam prioritizes green finance and carbon market
Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Van Thang said on 8 July that Vietnam will make green finance and the domestic carbon market central pillars of its Net Zero roadmap. Speaking at the World Energy and Environment Vietnam 2026 forum in Hanoi, he said the next phase of green transition must move from commitments to concrete projects, financing tools and business participation.
The policy direction points to a more practical green-growth framework, with energy security, emissions reduction and competitiveness treated as linked objectives rather than trade-offs. The Government will continue improving legal frameworks for green capital markets, including green credit, green bonds and preferential tax policies for green projects. It also plans to further develop the domestic carbon exchange to create a more transparent carbon-pricing mechanism.
The broader message is that Vietnam is trying to turn Net Zero into an investable policy agenda. Instead of abruptly phasing out traditional energy, the transition will follow a staged roadmap that keeps power supply stable while improving efficiency, applying cleaner technologies and gradually reducing emissions intensity. This matters for power, industrials, banks and exporters, as ESG standards and emissions data are increasingly tied to access to funding and global supply chains.
Several ministries were assigned follow-up tasks. The Ministry of Industry and Trade will focus on clean energy and grid infrastructure, while the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment will advance greenhouse gas inventories and emissions management. The Ministry of Finance and the State Bank will push green-finance tools and risk-sharing mechanisms, while localities are expected to prepare pipelines of green projects and reduce administrative bottlenecks.
HCMC launches 150-day drive for 10%+ growth
HCMC on 8 July launched a 150-day campaign to complete its 2026 target of double-digit GRDP growth, with the city aiming for at least 10% expansion. The campaign includes action commitments between the city government and 15 strategic enterprises and investors, covering investment, production, trade, services, exports and infrastructure.
The move comes after HCMC reported solid 1H26 growth, with GRDP estimated at VND1550tn, up 8.6% y/y and the strongest pace in nearly 10 years. City leaders said the second half will require stronger execution, especially in public investment, private capital mobilisation and project delivery. HCMC targets public-investment disbursement of 70% by end-3Q26 and 100% for the full year, while also aiming to collect over VND500tn in state budget revenue in 2H26.
The key read-through is that HCMC is shifting from general growth targets to execution pressure. Public investment remains the leading lever, but private investment is being positioned as the main resource for sustaining double-digit growth. Strategic participants include large groups in infrastructure, ports, real estate, logistics, urban development and high-speed rail, suggesting the city wants project acceleration to feed directly into growth momentum.
Policy focus will be on clearing land, planning and investment bottlenecks, improving the business environment and pushing major projects into construction or operation faster. HCMC also highlighted the international financial centre, free-trade zone, logistics, digital transformation, innovation and green economy as longer-term growth engines. For markets, the policy signal is most relevant to infrastructure contractors, developers, logistics names and banks with exposure to large urban projects.
U.S. strikes Iran, restores oil sanctions
The U.S. carried out airstrikes against Iran on 8 July and reinstated oil sanctions after Washington accused Tehran of attacks on three commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Central Command said the strikes were a response to threats against civilian shipping in an international waterway, while Iran rejected the move and warned of consequences.
The sanctions decision also shortened Iran’s oil-sales window. A prior waiver had allowed Iranian oil transactions to continue until 21 August, but the revised deadline now requires existing transactions to be wound down by 17 July and bars new sales. Oil prices rose more than 5% after the announcement, as the market quickly repriced geopolitical risk around one of the world’s most sensitive energy corridors.
The immediate market impact is a higher risk premium for crude, freight and insurance costs. Even without a confirmed disruption to global supply, renewed military action near Hormuz raises the perceived probability of shipping delays, rerouting and tighter availability of Middle Eastern crude. That is negative for oil-importing economies and could complicate inflation expectations if prices stay elevated.
The escalation also weakens the fragile diplomatic track between Washington and Tehran. The two sides had signed a 60-day memorandum on 17 June covering negotiations on nuclear issues and sanctions, but the latest strikes and sanctions show how quickly the ceasefire framework can unwind. For regional markets, the main watch points are further retaliation, any direct threat to shipping flows and whether oil prices hold their initial spike or fade as supply conditions become clearer.
Other charts
Copyright © 2025 Ho Chi Minh Securities Corporation (HSC). All rights reserved.
This report has been prepared and issued by HSC or one of its affiliates for distribution in Vietnam and overseas only to professional institutional investors who are our clients and who have agreed to receive our institutional research product. If you are not such an investor this report is not intended for you, and you should not read or rely upon it.
This research report is prepared for general circulation to institutional investors for informational purposes only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any investor who may receive or read it, and investors are cautioned to make independent decisions with regard to their individual financial situations and investment objectives. Nothing in this report constitutes an offer, nor an invitation to make an offer, to buy or to sell any securities or any option, futures contract, or other derivative instrument in any jurisdiction. Nor should it be construed as an advertisement for any financial instruments.
Opinions, estimates, and projections expressed in this report represent the views of the author at the date of publication only and are subject to change without notice. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of HSC. HSC may make other recommendations or comments to other classes of investors which do not agree with the contents of this report. HSC has no obligation to update, amend, or in any way modify this report or otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any of the subject matter or any opinion, projection, or estimate contained within it changes or becomes inaccurate. The information herein was obtained from various sources and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
While HSC ensure the separation and independence between analysts and officers of proprietary team, HSC may or may not have proprietary positions in any of the securities mentioned in this report. Research may be referenced by HSC proprietary officers when buying or selling proprietary positions or positions held by funds under its management. HSC may trade for its own account as a result of short[1]term trading suggestions from analysts and may also engage in securities transactions in a manner inconsistent with this report and the opinions expressed therein. Subject to its personal trading policy, officers of HSC may also have a financial interest in securities mentioned in this report or in related instruments. HSC may have investment banking relationships with or seek to do business with companies named in this report.
Investors should note that the prices and availability of financial instruments fluctuate and may rise and fall. Past performance, if any, is no guide to the future.
This report remains the property of HSC and is not public information. It may not be copied, reproduced, published, or redistributed in whole or in part by any person for any purpose without the express written permission of HSC. Any party shall be liable to HSC for any cost, loss, or damage incurred by HSC or HSC clients as a result of any breach under this Disclaimer in accordance with law. Furthermore, in the event of any copyright infringement, we reserve the right to pursue legal action against any violation or breach in accordance with Intellectual Property law in Vietnam and other relevant jurisdictions.
____________________________________________
Explanation of Institutional Equity Research Ratings
Buy: Expected to rise by more than 20% on an absolute basis in the next 12 months
Add: Expected to rise by between 5% and 20% on an absolute basis in the next 12 months
Hold: Expected to rise or decline by less than 5% on an absolute basis in the next 12 months
Reduce: Expected to decline by between 5% and 20% on an absolute basis in the next 12 months
Sell: Expected to decline by more than 20% on an absolute basis in the next 12 months
HEAD OFFICE
Level 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 11, & 12, AB Tower
76 Le Lai, Ben Thanh Ward, HCMC
T: (+84 28) 3823 3299
F: (+84 28) 3823 3301
HANOI OFFICE
Level 2, Cornerstone building
16 Phan Chu Trinh, Hoan Kiem District
T: (+84 24) 3933 4693
F: (+84 24) 3933 4822