Equities | Vietnam | Banks

Maritime Comm. JSB (MSB - HSX)

Company Focus

07 July 2026

 

Source: Company, HSC Research estimates

 

Share price performance

Source: Company, FactSet

 

HSC vs. consensus

Source: Bloomberg, HSC Research estimates

 

Company description

MSB is a mid-size private bank in Vietnam, focusing in real estate developers and mortgages.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Event: Share price strength + EV 2026 updates

Share price has risen 12% since our 2 June update, outperforming our covered private banks. The recent share price strength may have been supported by the stock's inclusion in the VanEck Vietnam ETF, alongside strong domestic buying following heavy foreign net selling, which management attributed to portfolio rebalancing by foreign investors.

At HSC’s EV 2026 conference, MSB provided updates on business performance and outlook. In summary:

  • In line with us on core business: Management's comments on strong balance sheet growth – credit and deposit growth of 10% YTD – and resilient NIM were broadly in line with our expectations.
  • Key surprises: The bank materially raised guidance on potential large-scale bad debt recoveries and announced its decision to retain ownership of subsidiary TNEX Finance rather than pursue a divestment.

Impact: Raise FY26-27 PBT by 5.9% on avg., maintain FY28

Following management's more optimistic guidance on legacy asset recoveries, we raise our FY26-27F assumptions for one-off income, though maintaining a more conservative stance than management. Our key operating assumptions remain unchanged. On revised forecast, FY26-28 PBT is expected to grow 18.4%/1.4%/6.3%, respectively.

Valuation and recommendation

We raise our TP by 3% to VND16,200, reflecting earnings revision. Our TP implies mid-FY27 target P/B of 0.97x on 3Y prospective average ROE of 13.2%. Delivering strong performance (+29% YTD) outperforming peers, MSB is now trading on a 1Y rolling fwd P/B of 0.96x, slightly above its 5Y historical average of 0.91x and at 22% discount to private peers’ average. We believe the current valuation is broadly fair, with limited upside from current levels. We downgrade the stock to Hold as its valuation has become less compelling.


Year end: December
12-24A
12-25A
12-26F
12-27F
12-28F
Net interest income (VNDbn) 10,243 10,947 12,841
14,612
16,663
Total operating income (VNDbn) 14,218 14,045 17,018
18,347
20,318
Reported net profit (VNDbn) 5,520 5,629 6,663
6,757
7,184
EPS (VND) 1,769 1,804 2,135
2,166
2,303
DPS (VND) 0 0 0
0
0
BVPS (VND) 11,800 13,605 15,746
17,911
20,214
P/E (x) 9.13 8.95 7.56 7.46 7.01
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 0 0
P/B (x) 1.37 1.19 1.03 0.90 0.80
EPS growth (%) 18.4 1.97 18.4 1.41 6.32
Ret. on avg. equity (%) 16.2 14.2 14.6 12.9 12.1

Note: Use of ▲ ▼ indicates that the item has changed by at least 5%.

Source: Bloomberg, HSC Research estimates

 

Raising forecasts and TP on one-off income; Hold on val.

We raise our TP by 3% to VND16,200, reflecting a 5.9% increase in our FY26-27F PBT forecasts while maintaining FY28F. Management is more optimistic on one-offs from legacy asset resolutions, raising their guidance. Accordingly, we raise our FY26-27F forecasts for this income, though still more conservative than the management, and maintain key assumptions. Under our new forecasts, we expect earnings growth of 18.4%/1.4%/6.3% in FY26-28, respectively. Up 12% since our last update on 2 Jun, strongly outperforming peers, MSB now trades on 1Y rolling fwd P/B of 0.96x, slightly above 5Y average and at 22% discount to peers. We downgrade the stock to Hold (from Add) as its valuation has become less attractive, leaving limited upside.

New forecasts, backed by higher expectations for a recovery

Raise FY26-27F PBT by 5.9% on average and maintain FY28F PBT

At our EV conference, MSB raised its guidance for one-off gains from legacy asset resolutions to VND3-4tn, versus previous guidance of VND1-2tn. Management indicated that it is currently resolving 2-3 large legacy assets backed by collateral valued at around VND8tn, with completion targeted within 2026.

While we do not fully incorporate the new guidance given execution uncertainty, we raise our one-off income assumptions by 50% to VND1.2tn for FY26 and introduce VND500bn for FY27, still well below management's expectations. We believe meaningful recoveries remain achievable, supported by: (1) MSB's track record, (2) the successful resolution by BID of a syndicated loan with MSB in 4Q25, and (3) management’s optimistic guidance, partly reflecting substantial potential upside from one legacy asset, though realization remains uncertain.

Figure 1: Earnings forecasts, MSB

We raise our one-off income assumptions for FY26-27F and maintain key assumptions

 

Actual

Old forecasts

New forecasts

 

2025

2026

2027

2028

2026

2027

2028

NII

10,947

12,840

14,591

16,632

12,841

14,612

16,663

Growth y/y

6.9%

17.3%

13.6%

14.0%

17.3%

13.8%

14.0%

Revision

-14.7%

 

 

 

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

Net fee income

1,753

1,881

2,158

2,444

1,881

2,158

2,444

Growth y/y

29.5%

7.3%

14.7%

13.2%

7.3%

14.7%

13.2%

Revision

-6.8%

 

 

 

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

One-off income

 

800

0

0

1,200

500

0

Growth y/y

 

N/m

N/m

N/m

N/m

N/m

N/m

Revision

 

 

 

 

50.0%

 

 

Other Non-II

1,344

1,095

1,078

1,211

1,095

1,078

1,211

Growth y/y

-48.7%

-18.5%

-1.6%

12.4%

-18.5%

-1.6%

12.4%

Revision

22.7%

 

 

 

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

TOI

14,045

16,616

17,826

20,288

17,018

18,347

20,318

Growth y/y

-1.2%

18.3%

7.3%

13.8%

21.2%

7.8%

10.7%

Revision

-15.5%

 

 

 

2.4%

2.9%

0.2%

OPEX

-5,068

-6,104

-6,567

-7,285

-6,104

-6,567

-7,285

Growth y/y

-3.1%

20.5%

7.6%

10.9%

20.5%

7.6%

10.9%

Revision

-17.0%

 

 

 

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

PPOP

8,977

10,512

11,259

13,002

10,913

11,780

13,033

Growth y/y

-0.1%

17.1%

7.1%

15.5%

21.6%

7.9%

10.6%

Revision

-14.6%

 

 

 

3.8%

4.6%

0.2%

Provision expenses

-1,918

-2,587

-3,334

-4,053

-2,587

-3,334

-4,053

Growth y/y

-7.9%

34.9%

28.9%

21.5%

34.9%

28.9%

21.5%

Revision

-25.9%

 

 

 

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

PBT

7,058

7,924

7,925

8,949

8,326

8,446

8,980

Growth y/y

2.2%

12.3%

0.0%

12.9%

18.0%

1.4%

6.3%

Revision

-10.9%

 

 

 

5.1%

6.6%

0.3%

Net income

5,629

6,341

6,340

7,159

6,663

6,757

7,184

Growth y/y

2.0%

12.7%

0.0%

12.9%

18.4%

1.4%

6.3%

Revision

-11.2%

 

 

 

5.1%

6.6%

0.3%

Source Company data, HSC Research

 

 

Figure 3: Key assumptions, MSB

We maintain FY26-28F key operating assumptions: Resilient NIM and OPEX discipline are key positives, while weaker asset quality pressure provisioning 

 

Actual

New forecast

 

 

2025

2026

2027

2028

Credit growth

16.8%

14.1%

13.4%

13.2%

Credit growth, parent bank

15.8%

12.5%

13.0%

13.0%

Credit growth, TNEX

114.5%

100.0%

25.0%

20.0%

Deposit growth

27.2%

7.5%

13.4%

13.2%

NIM

3.15%

3.18%

3.26%

3.31%

NPL ratio

2.69%

2.85%

2.80%

2.75%

NPL formation

1.65%

1.70%

1.60%

1.60%

Credit cost

1.01%

1.17%

1.32%

1.42%

LLR

52%

46%

45%

48%

CIR

36%

36%

36%

36%

OPEX cost

2.64%

2.75%

2.60%

2.55%

NIM risk adjusted

2.15%

2.00%

1.93%

1.89%

NFI/Average assets

0.48%

0.44%

0.46%

0.46%

ROA

1.55%

1.56%

1.43%

1.35%

ROE

14.20%

14.55%

12.87%

12.08%

Source Company data, HSC Research

 

Other information from EV 2026 investor meeting

At HSC’s EV 2026 conference, MSB shared its latest views on interest rates and provided updates on business performance and outlook. While core business trends appear in line with us, MSB made some surprising announcements on potential large-scale bad debt recoveries (discussed above) and its decision to retain ownership of consumer finance subsidiary TNEX Finance rather than pursue a divestment.

Core business in line: Strong credit expansion of 10% YTD and flat NIM

  • Credit growth: As of May 2026, MSB had nearly exhausted its initial credit growth quota, with loan growth reaching 10% YTD versus the SBV-approved initial quota of 10.428% for the full year. Deposit growth kept pace with lending, also reaching 10% YTD. Management maintained its full-year credit growth target of 18%, subject to additional quota approval from the SBV. In the absence of further quota allocation, the bank indicated that it has alternative plans with off-balance-sheet trade finance solutions, also in line with previous communication.
  • NIM: MSB targets a 2026 NIM of approximately 3.2%, broadly flat compared with 1Q26. Management expects margin resilience to be supported by maintaining a high CASA ratio and gradually shifting the loan mix toward higher-yield retail lending. The bank's CASA ratio remained among the strongest in our coverage at 26.5% in 1Q26 (#4/14 banks under coverage), helping contain funding costs amid ongoing sector-wide NIM pressure.

TNEX Finance: No longer pursuing divestment

MSB has discussed eventual divestment from its consumer finance subsidiary TNEX multiple times. At this event, management updated us that the bank has decided not to push for TNEX divestment – a change in general strategic direction. However, TNEX remains open for a strategic partnership with investors. The bank explained that strong performance of TNEX has prompted this change, and management is positive about its future contribution to the consolidated results. We think the current unfavorable market conditions for deals could be a factor.

TNEX’s contribution to MSB has been negligible (FY25: 1.8% and 0.3% of consolidated credit and PBT, respectively), but both us and management expect it to improve. Key performance metrics:

  • Rapid balance sheet expansion: Not restricted by quota, TNEX loan book is projected to nearly triple this year
  • Spread: 15%, in line with industry
  • NPL ratio: 7-8%, in line with industry

We have not incorporated assumptions for income from TNEX divestment, so this does not impact our model.

Figure 4: Actual and guidance key ratios, TNEX Finance

Management has ambitious plans for TNEX

 

FY24A

FY25A

FY26 plan

FY27 plan

FY28 plan

FY29 plan

% of consol. total credit

1.0%

1.8%

3.4%

 

 

 

% of consol PBT

0.1%

0.3%

3.4%

 

 

 

Loan growth

-18%

114%

117%

28%

37%

38%

PBT growth

80%

378%

1022%

49%

100%

68%

CIR

54%

31%

35%

31%

29%

25%

Provision expense/TOI

45%

65%

52%

56%

52%

51%

ROA

0.1%

0.3%

2.8%

3.4%

5.0%

5.9%

ROE

0.6%

1.3%

12.3%

15.7%

25.4%

26.2%

Source: MSB AGM

 

Valuation and recommendation

Raise TP by 3% to VND16,200; downgrade to Hold on valuation

We increase our TP by 3% to VND16,200, mainly driven by upward earnings revisions, and downgrade our rating to Hold (from Add) due to limited upside. Our TP implies mid-FY27 target P/B of 0.97x on 3Y prospective average ROE of 13.2%.

We keep valuation assumptions unchanged: cost of equity at 14.5%, based on a risk-free rate of 4.0%, an adjusted equity risk premium of 9.5%, and a beta of 1.1.

Figure 5: RI valuation, MSB

 

2026F

2027F

2028F

2029F

2030F

2031F

2032F

2033F

2034F

2035F

Net income

6,663

6,757

7,184

8,153

10,078

11,553

12,841

14,000

14,967

15,683

(-) Capital charge

6,133

7,099

8,075

9,113

10,291

11,748

13,002

14,117

15,029

15,683

Residual income

529

-342

-891

-960

-213

-194

-161

-117

-62

0

Terminal value

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

(x) Discount factor to end-FY25

1.00

0.87

0.76

0.67

0.58

0.51

0.44

0.39

0.34

0.30

PV of residual income

529

-299

-680

-640

-124

-99

-72

-45

-21

0

Ending book value

49,126

55,883

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity value

47,146

54,201

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity value at mid-FY27

50,673

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Number of shares (mn)

3,120

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target price at mid-FY27

16,200

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Company data, HSC Research

 

Figure 6: TP sensitivity to risk-free rate and adjusted ERP assumptions, MSB

 

 

 

 

Adjusted ERP

 

 

 

 

 

Rf

 

 

 

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

8.50%

17,900

17,400

17,100

16,700

16,300

9.00%

17,400

17,000

16,600

16,300

15,900

9.50%

17,000

16,600

16,200

15,900

15,600

10.00%

16,600

16,200

15,900

15,500

15,200

10.50%

16,200

15,800

15,500

15,200

14,800

Source: Company data, HSC Research

 

Valuation context

Up 12% since our latest update on 2 June and up 29% YTD, strongly outperforming sector, MSB is now trading on 1Y rolling P/B of 0.96x, 0.2 SD to 5Y average of 0.91x and 22% discount to peers. The recent share price strength may have been supported by the stock's inclusion in the VanEck Vietnam ETF, alongside strong domestic buying following heavy foreign net selling, which management attributed to portfolio rebalancing by foreign investors.

With foreign ownership now at just 7.6%, down sharply from the 30% ceiling that had been largely fully utilized since the bank's listing in early 2021 until May 2026, MSB now has substantial foreign ownership headroom. This could increase the stock's attractiveness to new foreign investors and potentially support inclusion in additional ETFs over time.

Figure 7: 1Y rolling fwd P/B, MSB

MSB is trading on 1Y rolling P/B of 0.96x…

 

Source: Market data, HSC Research

 

Figure 8: Valuation gap to private peers, MSB

…21% below peers

 

Source: Market data, HSC Research


Figure 9: Comparables table, covered banks

 

Last px

Rating

TP

Upside

P/B (x)

P/E (x)

ROE

EPS growth

Target P/B at

 

VND

 

VND

%

2026

2027

2026

2027

2026

2027

2026

2027

2026

2027

ACB

22,600

Buy

28,850

27.7%

1.21

1.06

7.4

6.2

17.5%

18.1%

14.9%

18.8%

1.54

1.35

BID

41,650

Add

46,500

11.6%

1.48

1.30

11.0

10.1

14.5%

13.7%

-1.8%

9.6%

1.66

1.45

CTG

34,250

Buy

48,300

41.0%

1.26

1.07

7.1

6.3

19.2%

18.5%

19.4%

13.7%

1.78

1.51

HDB

27,700

Buy

33,000

19.1%

1.51

1.22

6.7

5.3

24.2%

25.3%

25.0%

25.2%

1.80

1.45

LPB

53,800

Sell

24,900

-53.7%

3.24

2.80

14.1

14.8

23.5%

20.3%

-0.4%

-4.3%

1.50

1.29

MBB

25,750

Buy

31,800

23.5%

1.26

1.04

7.3

6.1

18.8%

18.7%

14.6%

19.9%

1.55

1.29

MSB

16,150

Hold

16,200

0.3%

1.03

0.90

7.6

7.5

14.6%

12.9%

18.4%

1.4%

1.03

0.90

OCB

11,350

Add

12,783

12.6%

0.91

0.80

7.8

6.8

12.4%

12.5%

11.5%

14.4%

1.02

0.90

STB

70,800

Reduce

61,000

-13.8%

1.96

1.62

19.0

9.3

11.0%

19.1%

18.1%

105.3%

1.69

1.39

TCB

33,850

Buy

44,500

31.5%

1.23

1.07

8.0

6.7

16.5%

17.2%

19.0%

19.8%

1.62

1.41

TPB

16,200

Buy

19,800

22.2%

0.92

0.80

5.7

5.0

17.4%

17.0%

7.4%

12.6%

1.13

0.97

VCB

61,300

Buy

75,600

23.3%

1.85

1.65

14.5

12.8

14.0%

13.6%

9.1%

12.9%

2.28

2.03

VIB

16,250

Buy

20,000

23.1%

1.06

0.95

6.8

6.4

16.5%

15.7%

14.0%

6.5%

1.31

1.16

VPB

27,600

Buy

36,800

33.3%

1.13

0.97

7.6

6.0

16.0%

17.5%

20.7%

27.0%

1.51

1.29

Sector

 

 

 

14.4%

1.43

1.23

9.3

7.8

16.9%

17.1%

13.6%

20.2%

1.53

1.31

SOCBs

 

 

25.3%

1.53

1.34

10.9

9.7

15.9%

15.2%

8.9%

12.0%

1.90

1.66

Private banks

 

 

11.4%

1.40

1.20

8.9

7.3

17.1%

17.7%

14.8%

22.4%

1.43

1.22

Source: Company data, Market data, HSC Research

Financial statements and key data

Note: *Excluding short-term investments.

Source: Company, HSC Research estimates

 

Global Disclaimer

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This research report is prepared for general circulation to institutional investors for informational purposes only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any investor who may receive or read it, and investors are cautioned to make independent decisions with regard to their individual financial situations and investment objectives. Nothing in this report constitutes an offer, nor an invitation to make an offer, to buy or to sell any securities or any option, futures contract, or other derivative instrument in any jurisdiction. Nor should it be construed as an advertisement for any financial instruments.

 

Opinions, estimates, and projections expressed in this report represent the views of the author at the date of publication only and are subject to change without notice. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of HSC. HSC may make other recommendations or comments to other classes of investors which do not agree with the contents of this report. HSC has no obligation to update, amend, or in any way modify this report or otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any of the subject matter or any opinion, projection, or estimate contained within it changes or becomes inaccurate. The information herein was obtained from various sources and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

 

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Explanation of Institutional Equity Research Ratings

 

Buy: Expected to rise by more than 20% on an absolute basis in the next 12 months

Add: Expected to rise by between 5% and 20% on an absolute basis in the next 12 months

Hold: Expected to rise or decline by less than 5% on an absolute basis in the next 12 months

Reduce: Expected to decline by between 5% and 20% on an absolute basis in the next 12 months

Sell: Expected to decline by more than 20% on an absolute basis in the next 12 months

 

 

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