Sector Brief
02 July 2026
Policy-directed credit allocation to infrastructure
We view the recent policy measures, including Document 5386/NHNN-TD and Circular No. 25/2026/TT-NHNN enacted on 22 Jun-26, as supportive for infrastructure, real estate, and construction sectors. Together, these measures improve the availability of short-to-mid term financing for large-scale projects and signal the government's willingness to use the banking system as a channel to facilitate investment-led growth. We believe this serves as a short-to-mid-term catalyst for names including CTD and VHM. We are reviewing VHM, while maintaining a Buy recommendation for CTD with a TP of VND104,762.
Guidance for commercial banks to credit large projects
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) issued Document 5386/NHNN-TD on 22 Jun-26, guiding commercial banks on excluding outstanding credit disbursed for 18 major projects associated with Vingroup, Sun Group, and Masterise – with total mobilized capital needs of over VND752tn over period of 2026-2033. This means the total fund expected to be disbursed for these projects in 2026 (estimated at around VND210tn) will sit outside the 15% credit growth quota set by the SBV at the beginning of this year. The document also instructed banks to monitor and report these balances, comply with Circular 25/2026/TT-NHNN (discussed below) on the short-term funding for medium/long-term lending ratio, and are encouraged to syndicate loans – while reporting to SBV for submission to the PM for approval if credit to a single client/related group exceeds the regulatory limit.
We consider this move signals that the government is now actively coordinating capital flow toward strategic infrastructure and development projects:
- Vingroup mandate is structurally focused on high-speed rail and urban mass transit, notably the Ben Thanh – Can Gio and Hanoi – Quang Ninh railway projects. We note that VHM – in a joint venture with VinSpeed – has recently been appointed to an EPC mandate for 5 metro lines in Hanoi, valued at appx. VND1,460tn and now the SBV is coordinating with the banking sector to ensure long-term capital mobilization for these strategic national rail assets (totaling over VND212tn).
- Sun Group is recognized as a strong player in tourism-led infrastructure. The Group has been tasked with anchoring regional connectivity like the road to Gia Binh Airport and major national sports infrastructure, alongside critical infrastructure serving the upcoming APEC Summit 2027 – a landmark diplomatic event positioning Vietnam on the global stage – totaling over VND332tn in mobilized capital for upcoming mega-projects in the pipeline.
- Masterise has been named the lead developer for the Gia Binh International Airport and its surrounding industrial ecosystem. This mandate represents over VND134tn in infrastructure-focused projects, signaling a significant expansion of the Group's portfolio into aviation and high-complexity civil works, backed by formal institutional credit support.
While the developers – Vingroup, Sun Group, and Masterise – hold the high-level permits and navigate the complexities of debt and equity, Coteccons (CTD – Buy, TP VND104,762) emerges as the primary industrial beneficiary. As the preferred General Contractor for these conglomerates, CTD is uniquely positioned to capture the downstream value of this massive capital injection.
Lending cap increase supports in infrastructure and RE
Circular No. 25/2026/TT-NHNN was published on 22 Jun-26 (amendment to Circular 22/2019/TT-NHNN on 15 Nov-19), officially raising the cap on short-term capital used for medium and long-term lending to 40% (from 30%), effective 1 Jul-26.
The Circular states that the measure is intended to increase credit availability for businesses and investment projects in support of economic growth, while providing greater flexibility in monetary policy implementation.
We view the increase in the short-term-to-long-term lending cap as particularly supportive for infrastructure and real estate sectors, where project development cycles are inherently long-dated. Residential projects typically require more than 2 years to complete, township developments often exceed 3 years, and major infrastructure projects can span 3-10 years. Given the substantial demand for medium- and long-term financing across these sectors, the higher cap should enhance banks' capacity to fund large-scale projects. More importantly, the move reinforces the government's policy commitment to supporting investment-led growth through improved credit access.
HSC view: Credit tailwinds bolster sector prospects
Overall, we view the recent policy measures provide a short-to-mid-term catalyst for investment-led sectors, particularly infrastructure, real estate, and construction. Together, the SBV's guidance on large-project lending and the increase in the short-term-to-long-term lending cap signal a more supportive policy stance toward project financing and economic growth. We see names in the sector largely benefit from this move, including CTD and VHM. We are reviewing VHM while we have a Buy recommendation for CTD with TP of VND104,762.
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