Equities | Vietnam | Real Estate Development

Becamex IDC (BCM - HSX)

Flashnote

01 July 2026

 

Source: Company, HSC Research estimates

 

Share price performance

Source: Company, FactSet

 

Summary financials and valuation

Year end: Dec
12-25A
12-26F
12-27F
Net sales (VNDbn) 6,953 6,810 6,943
EBITDA adj. (VNDbn) 2,602 2,016 2,493
Pre-tax profit (VNDbn) 3,743 2,157 3,136
Net profit adj. (VNDbn) 3,501 1,677 2,278
FCF (VNDbn) (379) (2,524) (1,183)
EPS adj. (VND) 3,383 1,621 2,201
DPS (VND) 10.7
-
-
BVPS (VND) 22,581 24,544 27,399
EBITDA adj. growth (%) 36.9 (22.5) 23.7
EPS growth adj. (%) 66.3 (52.1) 35.8
DPS growth (%) (98.9)
-
-
EBITDA adj. margin (%) 37.4 29.6 35.9
Pre-tax margin (%) 53.8 31.7 45.2
Net margin adj. (%) 50.4 24.6 32.8
Div. payout ratio (%) 0.32
-
-
Net debt/equity (%) 96.1 98.4 92.5
ROAE (%) 16.0 6.88 8.48
Return on avg. CE (%) 6.17 4.14 5.14
EV/sales (x) 10.9 11.5 11.4
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) 29.0 38.7 31.8
P/E adj. (x) 15.5 32.3 23.8
P/B (x) 2.32 2.13 1.91
Dividend yield (%) 0.02
-
-

Source: Bloomberg, HSC Research estimates

 

Company description

BCM is a leading industrial park developer here, with over 6,000 ha of industrial land. Apart from land leasing, BCM has developed an ecosystem to enhance the overall value of its core IPs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Event: AGM held, all proposals passed

BCM's AGM was held. FY26 business guidance, the FY25 dividend plan, and the public-company compliance roadmap were passed.

Profit after tax target is for 10% y/y growth

FY26 guidance targets net revenue of VND10.2tn (up 4.2% y/y) and profit after tax (PAT) of VND3.9tn (up 10.2% y/y). Revenue and PAT are 50.2% and 91.1% above our respective estimates, as our forecasts conservatively assume lower revenue from residential and industrial park (IP) land sales. Earnings growth is expected to be driven by the Bau Bang Expansion (380 ha) and Cay Truong (700 ha) projects, together with residential land sales at the Green City Binh Duong social housing (3,394 units). We note that BCM did not provide a breakdown of its FY26 revenue guidance.

The management also announced 1H26 results, with net revenue of VND2,418bn (down 44.6% y/y) and PAT of VND292bn (down 83.9% y/y). 1H26 PAT fulfilled 14.4% of our FY26 forecasts, while completing 7.5% of management’s guidance.

Issuance and dividend plan

BCM has proposed that the HCMC People's Committee - the state-capital owner representative - approve a roadmap to reduce state ownership from 95.4% to above 65% over 2026-2030 through public share issuance. The plan aims to restore compliance with the free-float requirement while raising capital for its sizeable industrial park, urban, and infrastructure pipeline.

Specifically, BCM currently does not meet the public-company shareholding requirement under the Securities Law (Law No. 56/2024/QH15), which requires companies listed before 1 January 2021 to have at least 10% of voting shares held by a minimum of 100 non-major shareholders by 1 January 2026. However, Law No. 68/2025/QH15 allows BCM to retain its public-company status under transitional provisions.

While the timeline for implementation remains unconfirmed, we view a lower state holding as increasingly viable and a structural positive, enabled by the recent regulatory framework.

(Continued on page 2)

 

 

Figure 1: BCM FY26 guidance

VNDbn

FY25A

FY26 guidance

Growth y/y

HSC F

Growth y/y

Difference

Revenue

9,819

     10,230

4.2%

6,810

-30.6%

50.2%

Profit before tax

3,743

       4,130

10.3%

2,157

-42.4%

91.5%

Profit after tax

3,525

       3,883

10.2%

2,032

-42.4%

91.1%

Source: BCM, HSC Research

 

Stock dividends: BCM will pay stock dividends with respect to FY25’s business results of 14%. Shareholders owning 100 common stocks will be entitled to receive 14 new shares. The FY26 dividend plan is planned at 10% (~VND1,180bn), cash or stock has yet to be disclosed.

Core business pipeline communicated

The industrial park segment remains BCM's core earnings driver. We see the strategic emphasis on eco-industrial and high-technology parks as an effort to reposition BCM's leasing proposition toward elevating green infrastructure as a differentiator for retaining quality FDI. Across its existing portfolio, BCM is upgrading My Phuoc 1-3, Thoi Hoa, and Bau Bang into green, ESG-aligned industrial zones, while its ready-to-launch projects - Bau Bang Expansion and Cay Truong - are designed as eco-industrial parks

Residential property segment: The near-term pipeline comprises three projects: Green City Binh Duong (1,394 low-rise units), Green City Binh Duong Phase 2 (2,000 low-rise units), and a high-rise apartment complex on Le Loi Avenue (4,222 units Binh Duong) targeting mid-end segment. Meanwhile, a social housing pipeline of over 10,000 units slated for delivery from FY26 (with a further ~31,000 units planned through FY28-FY35), reinforces the labor-retention proposition underpinning the competitiveness of BCM's industrial parks and aligns with the social pillar of its ESG positioning.

Land-value uplift through infrastructure involvement

Over the longer term, BCM aims to coordinate its land, energy, digital, and transport assets within a single ecosystem to target technology-oriented tenants such as semiconductors and data centers, and lift land values along its expressway, metro, and railway corridors.

On transport, BCM is participating in several key road projects, including the My Phuoc - Tan Van, HCMC - Thu Dau Mot - Chon Thanh expressways, Ring Road 4, and the expansion of National Highway 13. Complementing these is a proposed 153 km railway that would link its industrial and logistics hubs to the Cai Mep seaport. On the urban transit front, BCM and THACO are jointly proposing to study two metro lines: Line 1 (New Binh Duong City - Suoi Tien) and Line 2 (Thu Dau Mot - HCMC), with total capital of over VND124tn; construction is expected in FY27.

BCM is advancing two solar plants adjacent to its Bau Bang and Cay Truong IPs - Bau Bang 1 (200 MWp) and Bau Bang 2 (100 MWp) - currently at the investment-application stage, aimed at supplying renewable power to its eco-industrial parks.

Maintaining Buy rating; VND60,500 TP

We maintain our Add rating and VND60,500 TP. BCM now trades on a 1Y rolling fwd. P/E of 23.6x, well below its 3Y avg. of 34.1x, and on a 33.4% discount to RNAV (vs. an avg. of 31% since our initiation in mid-March).

 

 

 

 

 

Financial statements and key data

Note: *Excluding short-term investments.

Source: Company, HSC Research estimates

 

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Explanation of Institutional Equity Research Ratings

 

Buy: Expected to rise by more than 20% on an absolute basis in the next 12 months

Add: Expected to rise by between 5% and 20% on an absolute basis in the next 12 months

Hold: Expected to rise or decline by less than 5% on an absolute basis in the next 12 months

Reduce: Expected to decline by between 5% and 20% on an absolute basis in the next 12 months

Sell: Expected to decline by more than 20% on an absolute basis in the next 12 months

 

 

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