Equities | Vietnam | Banks

Vietnam International Bank (VIB - HSX)

Flashnote

30 March 2025

 

Source: Company, HSC Research estimates

 

Share price performance

Source: Company, FactSet

 

Summary financials and valuation

Year end: Dec
12-23A
12-24F
12-25F
Total assets (VNDbn) 409,878 464,181 539,898
Customer loans (VNDbn) 266,346 314,257 364,538
Total op. inc. (VNDbn) 22,160 21,297 24,512
Net profit (VNDbn) 8,562 7,159 8,869
BVPS (VND) 12,781 14,291 16,408
EPS (VND) 2,885 2,412 2,988
DPS (VND) 1,500 800 800
Customer loan gr. (%) 14.8 18.0 16.0
Total op. inc. gr. (%) 22.7 (3.90) 15.1
EPS growth (%) 0.80 (16.4) 23.9
DPS growth (%)
-
(46.7) 0
Div. payout ratio (%) 52.0 33.2 26.8
ROAE (%) 24.3 17.8 19.4
ROAA (%) 2.27 1.64 1.77
NIM (%) 4.82 4.02 4.14
Cost to inc. ratio (%) 29.8 35.9 36.1
CAR (%) 12.2 11.9 11.8
NPL ratio (%) 3.14 3.40 2.80
LLR coverage (%) 51.0 33.3 38.6
LDR (%) 113 117 115
P/B (x) 1.55 1.39 1.21
P/E (x) 6.86 8.21 6.63
Dividend yield (%) 7.58 4.04 4.04

Source: Bloomberg, HSC Research estimates

 

Company description

VIB is a mid-size, retail-oriented bank in Vietnam, focusing on mortgages and auto loans. The bank is also an active player in the bancassurance market and has approximately 15% market share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Event: FY25 AGM held on 27 March

Key items on the agenda at the AGM included management guidance for FY25, disclosure of preliminary 1Q25 results, and announcement of the earnings distribution re. FY24. The AGM was well attended with all proposals approved.

Solid FY25 guidance

VIB provided ambitious operational and financial targets for FY25, including:

  • Credit balance: Targeting VND395tn (up 22% y/y), driven primarily by SMEs, household businesses, and mortgage lending.
  • Total funding (CDs & bonds included): VND377tn (up 26% y/y).
  • A PBT target of VND11,020bn, up 22% y/y and in line with our forecast of VND11,086bn (up 23% y/y).
  • An NPL ratio below 3.0% (FY24: 3.51%).

Although VIB missed its guidance targets in FY23 and FY24, management is confident about improvement in FY25, expecting a more favorable macroeconomic backdrop. Anticipated robust GDP growth (HSC growth forecast: 6.7%) and supportive regulatory conditions should facilitate substantial credit expansion. Consequently, VIB is well-positioned to achieve its aggressive growth targets in FY25.

Preliminary 1Q25 results

Management shared preliminary 1Q25 results that aligned closely with our expectations:

  • Credit growth: 2.5% YTD.
  • PBT: Around VND2.2tn-2.3tn, down 8% y/y and achieving 21% of our existing FY25F and 20-22% of the bank’s guidance.

The subdued 1Q25 performance was attributed to seasonally low NII (re. Lunar New Year’s timing) and higher provision expenses vs a low 1Q24 base. Management confidently expects that accelerated credit growth from 2Q25 will allow the bank to meet its full-year guidance.

(Continued on page 2)

 

Figure 1: VIB’s guidance for FY25

 

FY24

FY25 Planned

Growth y/y

HSC FY25F

Growth y/y

Planned vs HSCF

Total assets

493,158

600,350

22%

539,898

16%

6ppts higher

Total credit

324,009

395,800

22%

364,537

16%

6ppts higher

Total funding

299,570

377,300

26%

347,159

18%

8ppts higher

PBT

9,004

11,020

22%

11,086

23%

In line

NPL

3.5% (*)

<3.0%

 

2.8%

 

 

Note: (*) Computation of the bank follow Circular 31, including interbank loans.

Source: Company data, HSC forecasts

 

Earnings distribution and dividend policy

VIB detailed its FY25 capital raising and dividend distribution plan, including:

  • Bonus shares: Issuing 417.1 million shares as a bonus issue, equating to 14% of outstanding shares.
  • Employee stock ownership plan (ESOP): Issuing 7.8 million shares (0.26% of total outstanding shares) at VND10,000/share. Given the foreign ownership limit (FOL) remains low at 4.99%, only approximately 0.39 million additional shares will be available for foreign investors after the ESOP issuance.
  • Cash dividends: Paying VND700/share for FY24, implying a dividend yield of 3.5%. Total dividend payments of VND2.1 trillion represent 5.0% of total equity (VND41.8 trillion) and 23% of FY24 net profit.

VIB’s capital adequacy ratio (CAR) remained healthy at 11.9% at end-FY24 (slightly improved from 11.7% in FY23), comfortably supporting planned dividend payments and expected balance sheet growth.

Maintaining Add rating and target price

VIB shares have declined 5% over the past month and currently trade at an FY25 P/B ratio of 1.24x, representing a 7% premium relative to private peers' average (1.16x). We affirm our Add rating and current target price for VIB.

We are reviewing our financial projections. VIB’s FY25 earnings guidance closely matches our current estimates. However, its balance sheet expansion targets look ambitious, likely reflecting proactive monetary policies and strong regulatory support from the State Bank of Vietnam.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial statements and key data

Note: *Excluding short-term investments.

Source: Company, HSC Research estimates

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Explanation of Institutional Equity Research Ratings

 

Buy: Expected to rise by more than 20% on an absolute basis in the next 12 months

Add: Expected to rise by between 5% and 20% on an absolute basis in the next 12 months

Hold: Expected to rise or decline by less than 5% on an absolute basis in the next 12 months

Reduce: Expected to decline by between 5% and 20% on an absolute basis in the next 12 months

Sell: Expected to decline by more than 20% on an absolute basis in the next 12 months

 

 

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