Vietnam Could Be Trump’s Strategic Trade Wildcard

1. Trump Opens the Door, Vietnam Stands Ready

Former President Trump’s public statement about a “very productive call” with Vietnamese leader To Lam is no mere formality—it’s a calculated signal. While his first term’s trade policies were marked by high-stakes confrontations (notably with China), this new move hints at a more targeted strategy: isolate key trade partners for favorable bilateral terms. Vietnam appears to be on that shortlist.

2. Vietnam: The Post-China Factory Floor

During the 2017–2020 U.S.–China trade war, Vietnam emerged as the manufacturing beneficiary. American firms moved operations out of China and into Vietnam, doubling Vietnam’s trade surplus with the U.S. by 2023. Last year, Vietnam became America’s largest trading partner in Southeast Asia. But this success also drew attention—and a 46% tariff under Trump-era policies that now threaten those gains.

3. Big Brands, Big Impact

Major multinationals are already feeling the squeeze. Nike, which produced over 50% of its footwear and 25% of its apparel in Vietnam in FY2024, now faces soaring production costs. Nintendo, which expanded its manufacturing in Vietnam and Cambodia, delayed preorders for its upcoming Switch 2 console to assess tariff impacts. These aren’t marginal events—they are strong indicators of how essential a tariff deal would be.

4. What Should Investors Watch For?

If a tariff-cutting agreement is secured, the winners will likely include:

• Manufacturers operating in Vietnam (especially in apparel, electronics, and consumer goods).

• Logistics and supply chain firms with networks across Southeast Asia.

• U.S.-listed companies with production ties to Vietnam.