Vietnam Could Be Trump’s Strategic Trade Wildcard
05-04-2025, 00:32:24A pivotal shift may be unfolding in global trade dynamics: Vietnam is emerging as a key player in Donald Trump’s potential tariff strategy. If a deal to slash tariffs to zero materializes, it won’t just recalibrate the U.S.–Vietnam trade balance—it will also unlock cost relief for multinationals like Nike and Nintendo that rely heavily on Vietnamese manufacturing. Trump’s outreach signals more than diplomacy; it suggests a recalibrated, more selective trade policy that still puts “America First” but values strategic partnerships. For investors, this could mean renewed momentum in Vietnam’s manufacturing, logistics, and export sectors. Vietnam, having already risen as a post-China supply chain hub, now stands at the brink of deeper integration into global trade architecture. The implications for U.S.-listed companies with operations in Southeast Asia—or emerging market funds with Vietnam exposure—are significant.
1. Trump Opens the Door, Vietnam Stands Ready
Former President Trump’s public statement about a “very productive call” with Vietnamese leader To Lam is no mere formality—it’s a calculated signal. While his first term’s trade policies were marked by high-stakes confrontations (notably with China), this new move hints at a more targeted strategy: isolate key trade partners for favorable bilateral terms. Vietnam appears to be on that shortlist.
2. Vietnam: The Post-China Factory Floor
During the 2017–2020 U.S.–China trade war, Vietnam emerged as the manufacturing beneficiary. American firms moved operations out of China and into Vietnam, doubling Vietnam’s trade surplus with the U.S. by 2023. Last year, Vietnam became America’s largest trading partner in Southeast Asia. But this success also drew attention—and a 46% tariff under Trump-era policies that now threaten those gains.
3. Big Brands, Big Impact
Major multinationals are already feeling the squeeze. Nike, which produced over 50% of its footwear and 25% of its apparel in Vietnam in FY2024, now faces soaring production costs. Nintendo, which expanded its manufacturing in Vietnam and Cambodia, delayed preorders for its upcoming Switch 2 console to assess tariff impacts. These aren’t marginal events—they are strong indicators of how essential a tariff deal would be.
4. What Should Investors Watch For?
If a tariff-cutting agreement is secured, the winners will likely include:
• Manufacturers operating in Vietnam (especially in apparel, electronics, and consumer goods).
• Logistics and supply chain firms with networks across Southeast Asia.
• U.S.-listed companies with production ties to Vietnam.